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Office: LZK

FXUS64 KLZK 170726

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
226 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night


As of 3AM CDT, reflectivity shows a distinct band of rain and
thunderstorms across northern Arkansas w/ a propagation to the ESE
as the associated cold front w/ a broad region of rain/thunderstorms
behind the boundary slowly moves southward across the state. In
response, this scenario plays out a soggy Wednesday for most of the
state w/ scattered showers and thunderstorm moving ESE across the
state, but impacting more of the state southward into central and
southern Arkansas as the cold front continues to progress nearing
the Louisiana border. The axis of heaviest rainfall will shift from
northern Arkansas to central Arkansas early on Wednesday... whereas,
the axis will finally transition into southern Arkansas as the cold
front slowly meanders southward. Wednesday high temperatures will be
greatly hindered across the majority of the state... northern
Arkansas will feel temperatures only reach into the lower to middle
70's... across central Arkansas high temperatures will range from
the mid 70's to mid 80's... and across southern Arkansas just ahead
of the boundary will feel temperatures reach from the mid 80's to
upper 90's.

Throughout the day on Wednesday, localized flash flooding could
become an issue, especially in more arid areas across the state (the
combination of dry soil and heavy rainfall leading to the majority
of the rainfall becoming runoff) and in locations that see training
cells with higher rainfall rates that could provide a quick few
inches of rain to a location over a short period of time. The higher
total rainfall beneficiaries continue to trend toward northern and
east-central Arkansas where 1.5 to 3 inches could fall... elsewhere,
across central Arkansas, 0.5 to 1.5 inches will be a common theme...
and across southern Arkansas 0.25 to 1 inch of rain will be likely
by the time the event ends during the day on Thursday.


The cold front will continue moving slowly into northern and
eventually central Louisiana. Behind the boundary, rainfall chances
will end throughout the day on Thursday, beginning across central
Arkansas during the early morning hours and for the remainder of the
state (southern Arkansas) by Thursday evening. Given the completion
of the FROPA, high temperatures on Thursday will be uniform across
most of the CWA ranging from the low to mid 80's. The highlights of
the short-term forecast period will be beneficial rain over a large
part of the state coupled w/ cooler than normal temperatures for
this time of the year in the wake of the cold front. As I said
before in an earlier discussion this week; this is a much welcomed
sight for August.


.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

Dry condtions will be seen starting early in the long term
period...with highs in the 80s to low 90s Fri. Another cool morning
will be seen Sat morning...with lows in the low 60s to around 70. A
warm front will lift north on Sat...with moisture levels beginning
to rebound. As the warm front lifts north...a new upper shortwave
trough will drop SE into the region over the weekend...with chances
for convection will increasing statewide.

As the shortwave moves slowly SE over AR...a new front will drop SE
into the state...slowing as it enters AR. Several disturbances will
pass over AR aloft with this shortwave...with chances for convection
continuing into the end of the forecast. There is some potential
with this setup that widespread rainfall will be seen for most areas
of AR...some of which could be heavy. For now though...will keep an
eye on this active pattern as some widespread welcome relief to the
drought conditions are possible.


Batesville AR     74  62  84  63 /  90  10   0   0
Camden AR         89  67  82  66 /  60  50  30  10
Harrison AR       72  59  81  60 /  80  10   0   0
Hot Springs AR    83  67  84  65 /  70  30  20   0
Little Rock   AR  79  67  85  66 /  80  20  10   0
Monticello AR     87  68  83  67 /  60  50  30  10
Mount Ida AR      84  64  83  64 /  70  30  30   0
Mountain Home AR  73  60  84  62 /  80   0   0   0
Newport AR        72  63  82  64 /  90  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     80  67  83  66 /  70  30  20   0
Russellville AR   79  66  86  64 /  80  10  10   0
Searcy AR         76  64  84  65 / 100  10  10   0
Stuttgart AR      76  66  83  65 /  90  20  10   0



Short Term...234 / Long Term...62