Air Resources Laboratory banner image
Air Resources Laboratory web site National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

fl discuss

Office: JAX

FXUS62 KJAX 131934

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
334 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022


.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A slow moving surface front will shift south across Georgia today
and then north Florida tonight. Periods of heavy rainfall and
isolated storms will occur near and south of the front through
this evening with the stronger, heavier storms focused across NE
FL generally south of the I-10 corridor. Precipitation will
continue to tapper off across SE GA as drier, more stable NNE flow
develops trailing the frontal passage into tonight. Mostly dry
conditions are expected by midnight across NE FL with just a low
chance of coastal convection.

The cooler, drier post-frontal airmass will enable min temps to
fall into the mid/upper 60s for parts of SE GA under clearing
skies. Include patchy fog at this time for inland SE GA as well
with improved radiational cooling conditions. NE Winds will
remain elevated near the coast through the night with lingering
cloud cover across NE FL which will keep min temps in the low to
mid 70s and limit fog potential.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

Slightly cooler and much drier air will filter over inland SE
Georgia Sunday under northeast winds, which will be breezy at
times along the Atlantic coast. A chance of showers and isolated
storms will continue across NE FL, especially across Marion county
where heavy rainfall will be possible near the departing front
Sunday afternoon.

Drier air will filter over the region Monday under light westerly
flow as weak high pressure builds over the area in advance of the
next approaching front. The east coast sea breeze is expected to
drift inland toward the St. Johns River basin Monday afternoon.
The highest thunderstorm chances will focus across NE FL Ocala NF
and St. Johns River basin Monday afternoon, but overall below
normal rain chances for most areas including SE GA, with a warming
trend in temperatures.

Low temperatures will trend near to slightly below normal given
the drier air in place with cooler high temps in the mid 80s at
the coast under breezy onshore flow Sunday to near 90 well inland.
A warming trend develops Monday as high temperatures rebound into
the low/mid 90s.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

After a couple of days of below normal rainfall and drier air,
rain chances increase mid-week onward as long wave trough deepens
and persists across the Midwest and extends down the MS River
Valley. This large scale pattern will bring active SW flow and
passing mid level impulses across the local area into next

Warm southwest flow develops Tuesday as the next front approaches
from the north, with max temps reaching the mid 90s across our
eastern zones with a pinned east coast sea breeze front. Moisture
begins to return with higher mainly diurnally driven rain chances
Tuesday afternoon and evening then a low chance of convection
into Tuesday night across SE GA with the approaching front.
Wednesday into Friday a stormier weather pattern develops with the
surface front stalling and meandering across the region as upper
level disturbances traverse the area aloft under moist SW steering

Model consensus indicates high temperatures ranging in the
low/mid 90s with muggy lows in the 70s, but with SW steering flow
high temps may begin to trend downward given increased storminess.



A surface front will settle south across Georgia this afternoon
and then across north Florida through tonight. Winds will
transition from SSW 5-10 kts this afternoon south of the front to
NNE 10-15 kts tonight into Sunday trailing the frontal passage.
High pressure will build briefly over the local waters Sunday into
Monday as winds relax. Southwest winds develop late Monday into
Tuesday as the next front approaches from the north. This front
will will move across the local waters late Tuesday into Wednesday
and will begin to stall and linger over the region late in the
week brining unsettled, stormier weather.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk Sunday all local waters.



AMG  68  92  67  95  72 /  10  10   0  20  20
SSI  76  88  74  91  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
JAX  72  89  70  92  73 /  20  20  10  20  10
SGJ  74  86  72  89  73 /  30  30  10  20  10
GNV  69  89  69  92  70 /  40  40  10  30  10
OCF  72  90  72  92  73 /  50  60  20  40  10



Office: EYW
Office: MLB FXUS62 KMLB 131942 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 342 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 .DISCUSSION... Now through tonight...At 330 PM, scattered rain and storms were primarily focused from the Space Coast to the south and west. Some of this activity was moving offshore while also sending outflow inland. Additional boundary collisions and resultant thunderstorms are expected across Orange/Osceola/Southern Brevard counties and the Lake Okeechobee/Treasure Coast regions late this afternoon. The strongest storms of the day have produced wind gusts up to 50 mph, frequent lightning, and torrential rainfall. Activity will continue moving southeast around 15 mph and gradually dissipate after sunset. Sky conditions will improve late tonight as temperatures fall into the low and middle 70s. While an isolated shower or storm could linger along the coast early Sunday morning, most of the activity will have dissipated or moved offshore. Sunday-Monday (modified previous)...A mid-upper level trough will become a semi-permanent fixture off the southeast US coast, with the attendant surface frontal boundary stalling across north Florida. Combined with PWATs 2.0" or more and surface flow becoming westerly ahead of the frontal boundary, rain chances will increase to well above normal on Sunday. Westerly flow becomes established Sunday, favoring quicker progression of the west coast sea breeze and a collision across interior counties, resulting in numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Have 70 to 80 pct PoPs inland west of Interstate 95 from Martin to southern Volusia Counties, and 70 pct along and east of I-95 from Stuart to Titusville and into Volusia County. In summary, lots of rain. Slow and erratic storm motion may lead to localized flooding in low-lying and urban areas with poor drainage. Gusty winds as a result of water loading and some dry mid level air near the coast will be possible. Highs in the lower 90s and lows in the mid to low 70s. Tuesday-Saturday (modified previous)...The mid-upper level ridge will hang out just offshore of Florida into Tuesday, then flatten out across the southeast U.S. Wednesday into Thursday. Global models has slowed the arrival of the second mid-upper level trough since the previous forecast package, no longer substantially reinforcing the frontal boundary. That said, the frontal boundary will still linger through the latter part of the week. Drier air will bring rain chances down a bit to 40-60 pct through Wednesday (only around 40 pct Tuesday), then increase again to 50-70 pct as very moist air and additional mid-upper level support returns. Continuing to cap PoPs Friday and Saturday to around 50 to 60 pct. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION... Thunderstorms moving across the area will cause reduced VIS and lowered CIGs at TAF sites through late evening, prompting TEMPOs at all sites. Westerly flow dominating today at 7-12 kt. AMDs later this afternoon will likely be needed as TEMPOs end. Things are expected to calm down around 03Z. Once the VCTS clear out, winds become light and variable at all sites. Tomorrow morning, winds pick up out of the N-NW at 6-11 kt. VCTS begins around 17Z Sun. at interior sites, with northwesterly flow pushing storms towards the coast beyond this TAF period. && .MARINE... Tonight...Offshore-moving rain and storms may continue through mid to late evening before decreasing in coverage. SSE winds around 10 kts will decrease to 5-8 kts and become WSW overnight. Seas around 2 feet. Generally favorable boating conditions are expected, except in and around storms where winds and seas are higher. Sunday-Wednesday (previous)...Generally favorable boating conditions outside of storms. A mid-upper level trough will cause the Atlantic surface high to retreat eastward as a frontal boundary stalls north of the local Atlantic waters. Generally S-SW flow, but given the light pressure gradient winds across the waters will flip between the prevailing flow late at night and in the morning to onshore in the afternoon and evening with the sea breeze development. Scattered to numerous showers pushing offshore are expected each evening. Winds 5-10 kts and seas 2-3 feet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 74 89 73 91 / 50 60 20 30 MCO 74 90 74 93 / 40 80 20 50 MLB 74 90 75 90 / 50 70 30 50 VRB 71 92 73 91 / 50 70 30 60 LEE 75 90 73 92 / 40 80 10 40 SFB 74 90 73 93 / 50 80 20 40 ORL 76 92 76 94 / 40 80 20 50 FPR 71 90 72 90 / 50 70 30 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ Schaper/Sedlock/Tollefsen
Office: MOB FXUS64 KMOB 132045 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 345 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022 .NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/...Scattered showers and storms are currently affecting areas closer to the coast where a moister airmass exists, with more isolated coverage further north. Most, if not all of the activity should remain confined to areas generally along and south of the highway 84 corridor through the rest of the evening. After sunset, any convective development should quickly begin to subside. Tonight and through Sunday, we remain on the southeastern periphery of a large ridge aloft with a longwave trough still centered over the northeast CONUS gradually being pushed east out over the Atlantic. This pattern results in generally northwesterly flow aloft through the period with embedded shortwave energy directed southeast across the region through Sunday. At the surface, the aforementioned weak boundary will remain generally stalled out close to the northern CWA border with little southward progression. Also, a surface ridge stretching west over the northern Gulf coast shifts gradually south in response to the persistent northerly to northwesterly flow aloft. This should bring a more westerly flow to the coastal areas and a more northerly wind over the far interior. Drier air will also begin to filter into the area with PWATS around 1.5 inches generally along and north of the highway 84 corridor. Further south, a band of moist air with PWATs around 1.8-1.9 inches remains generally along and south of the I-10 corridor. Given this pattern and with the moister air closer to the coast, rain chances will likely remain focused closer to the coast where a weak surface convergence zone/sea breeze will likely develop during the day on Sunday. Overall, expecting any shower and storm development to follow a typical diurnal cycle with activity south of the coast overnight tonight, then developing inland during the day. Additionally, given decreased moisture and increase subsidence over the region, expecting PoP chances to remain mostly isolated to scattered in nature through Sunday. One note is with an increase in drier air in the mid/upper levels and slight cooling of temperatures aloft, higher instability will likely be present during the day with MLCAPE values rising into the 2000-2500J/kg range, and DCAPE values rising into the 700-1100J/kg range. With this, for any storms that do development, there is a small chance of some becoming strong to severe with the usual potential for damaging wind gusts. Also, can still expect ponding of water and potential for localized minor flooding to remain an issue for coastal counties where the moisture airmass exists. Looking at temperatures, lows tonight, will range in low to mid 70s inland, with upper 70s along the immediate coast. On Sunday, expect highs to range generally in the low 90s across the area with upper 80s near the immediate coast. Lastly, a low risk of rip currents is expected through the period. JEH/88 && .SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...A broad trough along the east coast will continue through the period. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will continue across the western states. This will maintain a north to northwest flow aloft. At the surface, weak high pressure continues across the area with a stalled boundary gradually washing out across interior areas. Slightly drier air on Monday will result in just isolated showers and thunderstorms. Deep layer moisture returns on Tuesday with precipitable water values in the 1.8 to 2 inch range, resulting in the return of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows remain in the low 70s inland to mid/upper 70s along the coast. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s inland to low 90s along the coast. /13 && .EXTENDED TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...The upper ridge to the west weakens as several shortwaves moving through the western side of the trough help to broaden the trough over the eastern states. This will send a weak front southward into the area late in the week. Moisture levels will also increase with precipitable water values climbing above 2 inches. The combination of the trough, increasing deep layer moisture and the frontal boundary moving into the area, will lead to scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday. /13 && .MARINE...No marine hazards are expected outside of shower and storm development through the weekend. Through early next week, expect winds to remain light and generally westerly, at times variable before slightly increasing again by mid-week. JEH/88 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at:
Office: TBW FXUS62 KTBW 131853 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 253 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 .DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Aloft, a trough will linger over the eastern US coast through mid- week, with some upper energy moving over the area from it through the weekend. At the surface, weak high pressure ridging across the area will be settling south through the weekend as a stalled frontal boundary across the deep south settles into the state as it dissipates. The ridge axis then remains south of the area through the week. Winds will continue to be in transition as the ridge axis moves over the area into Sunday, then become westerly across the area and remain westerly through the rest of the period by later Sunday. Storm timing will transition to over the coastal waters and possibly along the coast in the overnight and morning hours to pushing inland through the afternoon. Have widespread chances inland for tomorrow afternoon with the moisture and upper energy enhancing things, then POPs return closer to normal with scattered to numerous chances each day. Temps generally in the lower 90s each day, with lows in the 70s except around 80 at the coast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 W/NW flow this afternoon will become light and variable after 01z with vicinity storms gradually ending. Winds increase from the W/NW again after 13-14z with coastal terminals seeing some vicinity showers/storms starting then as well. Convection pushes inland through the late morning and afternoon hours. VFR will prevail with MVFR to IFR possible in storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Winds will be transitioning through the weekend as the high pressure ridge axis shifts south over the waters and to across south FL by later Sunday. Flow will then remain from the west through the rest of the period as the ridge remains to the south. Winds are expected to remain AOB 15 knots with seas 1-3 feet. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible each day, with timing mainly in the overnight and morning periods with the westerly flow. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 No concerns. Afternoon humidities remain above critical thresholds through next week with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 77 89 76 90 / 40 70 30 50 FMY 75 89 76 91 / 40 70 20 60 GIF 74 90 73 93 / 50 80 10 60 SRQ 76 90 76 91 / 30 70 40 60 BKV 73 91 70 92 / 40 60 20 50 SPG 79 88 78 89 / 30 70 40 60 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1 For Additional Information On Sea Breeze Regimes go to && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard/Zayas DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn
Office: TAE FXUS62 KTAE 131939 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 339 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 .NEAR TERM [Through Sunday]... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue for the remainder of this afternoon across the southern two- thirds of the area with a weakening frontal boundary in the vicinity. Localized pockets of heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning continue to be the main threats. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to diminish and push offshore later this evening with overnight lows mainly in the low to mid 70s. On Sunday, scattered convection is expected to be confined mainly to the southern portions of the area as a somewhat drier airmass moves in from the north. .SHORT & LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Next Saturday]... Mid and upper level troughing across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through the remainder of the weekend and into the early half of the work week will bring northwesterly flow to the region through the mid and upper levels. This is expected to advect dry air and subsequently lower our PWAT values areawide to around 1.5 inches. This will keep shower and thunderstorm activity low across land areas for both Sunday and Monday. Shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to remain high across our marine zones on Sunday as the front that is passing through the area today sags south into this region. By Tuesday, PWAT values are expected to climb back to near 2 inches areawide; however, PoP chances are only expected to increase to around 35-40% areawide. This is due to the continued strong northwesterly flow from the aforementioned trough across the Mid-Atlantic. Subsidence aloft from the right exit region of the roughly 100 knot jet streak at the 250mb level across Virginia and North Carolina will put a damper on shower and thunderstorm development across our area. By Wednesday the jet streak is forecast to become more east/west orientated, which will relax some of the subsidence across the region. With near or greater than 2 inch PWATs returning to the region coupled with a few impulses along the northern jet stream across the middle Tennessee valley and the Mid-Atlantic the chances for scattered to numerous thunderstorms is expected to increase to wrap up the work week, with PoPs increasing to 60% or greater from Thursday through Saturday. Overall, temperatures will be warm in the low to mid 90s through the early portion of the work week while thunderstorm activity is at a minimum, but by the middle to end of the work week once showers and thunderstorms return, high temperatures are forecast to drop back down into the low 90s to upper 80s areawide. Lows overnight will generally remain in the low 70s areawide. && .AVIATION... [Through 18Z Sunday] Scattered showers and storms will continue this afternoon with the greatest coverage across the FL Panhandle and Big Bend. MVFR to brief IFR conditions are possible with passing convection. Convection will diminish tonight after sunset. && .MARINE... Northerly to northeasterly breezes at around 5 to 10 knots are expected to start Sunday morning.This is expected to remain brief on Sunday as the front reaches its southernmost point just south of 60 NM offshore. Winds are expected transition to southwesterly again by Monday and continue through Wednesday, as the Bermuda ridge axis prevails across South Florida and lower pressure passes by to the north. Seas are expected to remain around a foot or less during this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Humidity is forecast to remain well above critical thresholds, and there are no fire weather concerns other than the potential for occasional low or high dispersions. && .HYDROLOGY... Light widespread showers today across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend will give way to a much drier airmass through the early portion of next week. With widespread rainfall totals of an inch or less forecast, there are no flooding concerns at this time. Widespread heavier rainfall totals looks to enter the forecast towards the middle of next week, but it is likely that localized flash flooding will remain the biggest impact at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 71 90 70 92 73 / 20 40 10 10 10 Panama City 73 88 74 89 77 / 40 50 10 20 10 Dothan 71 89 70 93 73 / 30 20 0 20 10 Albany 69 89 69 92 73 / 10 10 0 10 20 Valdosta 69 90 68 93 72 / 20 20 0 10 10 Cross City 71 91 70 93 73 / 50 50 20 20 10 Apalachicola 73 86 74 88 76 / 40 50 10 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Sunday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...Bunker LONG TERM...Bunker AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Bunker FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...Bunker
Office: MFL FXUS62 KMFL 131856 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 256 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 A deep trough will continue to dig into eastern United States with an accompanying frontal boundary making it's way through the southeast this weekend. With this pattern, it will interrupt the persistent pattern we've had with the Atlantic high and easterly flow & regime. Today has started off quiet, but the diurnal heating has set up for some good convection across the region this afternoon into the evening. With the sea breezes and boundaries, there will continue to potential for showers and thunderstorms, with heavy rainfall and localized flooding as the major concerns. Additional hazards include gusty winds and lightning with any passing storms. With warm upper level temperatures and weak lapse rates, hail is not likely going to be an impact of concern. Active weather is expected to continue into the late evening hours, especially in the interior and gulf coast. Conditions are expected to slowly back off overnight before the next round tomorrow. The current forecast lows are in the mid-70s; h however, with the showers and cloud cover into the evening hours, there is potential for limited radiational cooling and temperatures to remain warmer. The warm, weak flow will maintain a similar synoptic pattern tomorrow. The ensembles are favoring an even wetter environment with PWATs up to 2.0-2.3". With the sea breeze and afternoon heating, the best opportunity for showers and storms will be in the interior, but there will be potential widespread across South Florida. Hovering showers, with very moist conditions, will bring the potential for heavy rain with localized flooding. Gusty winds and lightning strikes will also accompanying passing storms. Temperatures will be similar tomorrow, near normal, in the lows 90s. With warm dew points, it will be another day with heat indices approaching 100 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Synoptic Overview: The hemispheric upper-lvl pattern at the start of the extended will consist of ridging over the west/central US and troughing over the east coast and western Atlantic. The main surface features of note for our area in this period will be weak high pressure over the GOM and a frontal zone, and associated frontal wave over the SE US and Atlantic. This configuration will support relatively light W-NW low-lvl flow over the region through mid-week. Towards the end of the week, the western Atlantic ridge will attempt to build back into the region, with the Bermuda High also trying to make a comeback at low-lvls (which would potentially support a shift back to a more E-SE regime). Monday looks like the most active convective day in the period as PWATs remain above normal (2-2.2 inches), with mesoscale ascent provided by the sea breezes (and then storm outflows). Given the westerly regime, precipitation will tend to be focused over the eastern interior and east coast. Flooding looks to be the main threat given the weak flow and favorable moisture parameters (i.e. deep warm cloud, high PWATs), and this threat could become more prominent if the precipitation focus is the east coast metro. Beyond Monday, PWATs will decrease a bit in the mid-week period as much of the best moisture is drawn north toward low pressure developing along the stalled frontal zone over the western Atlantic. Although this will result in somewhat reduced precipitation chances relative to Monday, at least scattered activity looks probable along the sea breezes each day through Thursday. By Friday we may see a regime switch back towards SErly flow which would result in a shift of convective focus back towards the interior and west coast but there remains some uncertainty on how quickly the Bermuda High can build back in. Temperatures will run a few degrees above normal through the week, with heat indices peaking in the low 100s each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 VFR conditions should prevail today, but with increasing chances of showers and storms, there will be potential for decreasing visibilities with heavy rain. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have started across the eastern portion of south FL. Widespread showers and storms are expected across the region with intensity picking up this afternoon. All TAF sites have potential for VCTS this afternoon into early evening. Active weather is expected to clear out as we move into the late evening and overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Winds continue to shift to the south and become weaker as the ridge over the Atlantic weakens, ahead of an approaching trough from the north. Wind speeds should top around 10 kt or less through early next week and while more southerly along Atlantic waters, they are likely to be more light and variable along the Gulf waters this weekend. By early in the week, they are likely to be from the WSW in general across much of the waters. Seas remaining in the 1 to 2 feet range at most or even less across a good portion of the waters. Boating conditions remain mainly benign, except for brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds with thunderstorms. && .BEACHES... Issued at 215 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 The risk of rip currents across South Florida beaches will remain low throughout the weekend. Moving into early next week, winds will change to a more southerly flow and weaken. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 76 90 76 91 / 30 70 20 60 West Kendall 74 92 73 91 / 30 60 20 60 Opa-Locka 76 92 76 92 / 30 70 20 60 Homestead 76 90 76 90 / 30 50 20 50 Fort Lauderdale 77 90 78 91 / 30 70 30 60 N Ft Lauderdale 76 89 77 91 / 30 70 30 60 Pembroke Pines 76 91 76 91 / 30 70 20 60 West Palm Beach 76 90 76 91 / 40 70 30 70 Boca Raton 76 92 76 92 / 30 70 30 60 Naples 76 88 77 88 / 40 60 20 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Simmons LONG TERM....Carr AVIATION...Simmons