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Office: ICT

FXUS63 KICT 170011
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
711 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

A cold front moved through the state with the post frontal cold air
advection and cloud cover resulting in a range of temperatures.
Northern Kansas has had temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s
while locations to the south had less cloud cover and allowed
temperatures to climb into the 90s. Isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms have been on/off during the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Highlights:

1) Chances for showers and storms thru Wednesday morning

2) Near to below seasonal normal temperatures

3) Slight chances for showers and storms Friday

Challenges & changes: Precipitation chances

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected into early
Wednesday. As mentioned in the previous discussion, additional mid
level energy is anticipated to help bring higher chances for showers
and storms tonight. The far eastern portions of Kansas into the
Ozarks still have the better chances; precip chances have been
tweaked to account for the latest short term models. There is
definite uncertainty in any specific location getting rainfall with
limited coverage. Unfortunately the amount of rainfall is expected
to be limited as well for most locations even if you are lucky
enough to get under a shower/storm. A thunderstorm can certainly
drop a good amount for one location though. It is possible that a
strong storm could impact far southern Kansas; however, the latest
observational data suggests Oklahoma has better potential. Any
storms that have developed and/or moved through that area this
afternoon have struggled given the CIN. If a strong storm
develops, they could produce gusty winds to 50 mph and small hail
to the size of pennies. The entire state will be cool on Wednesday
with temperatures below seasonal normal by about 10 degrees with
values in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Thursday and Friday will be
near normal with values in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Another
system should drop south out of Canada into the north central
CONUS on Thursday; this system will slowly move south. There is a
slight chance for showers and storms on Friday with better chances
overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Highlights:

1) Near to below seasonal normal

2) Chances for showers and storms for the weekend

This next system will stall over the Northern Plains/upper
Mississippi River Valley late Friday-Saturday. Near to below
seasonal normal temperatures with highs mainly in the lower 80s to
lower 90s and lows in the 60s are expected as this system helps
reinforce these values. Chances for showers and storms still exist
through the weekend with the highest chances Sunday into next week.
There is definite uncertainty given model variability as the system
starts to track east to the Great Lakes on Sunday. It could pan out
with better coverage for the precipitation, yet it is tough to say
that given the inconsistent moisture transport and even placement
of the system. If you have plans, stay tuned to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

MVFR to IFR conditions are occurring across much of the area and
will continue to impact sites tonight through early tomorrow. Cigs
may reduce further to LIFR across portions of central and
southeast KS toward morning, but confidence on LIFR conditions is
low.

Showers and storms will continue to possible across southeast KS
this evening tonight, where KCNU has the best chance of seeing
VCSH/VCTS overnight. Added a tempo group for -tsra given hit-or-
miss nature of storms.

Low cigs will continue area wise through tomorrow morning with
recovery to VFR expected late morning or early afternoon at all
sites. Light north and northeast winds can be expected for much of
the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  80  61  87 /  30  10   0   0
Hutchinson      64  81  59  87 /  30  10   0   0
Newton          65  80  60  86 /  30  10   0   0
ElDorado        65  78  59  86 /  40  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   67  78  61  86 /  40  20   0   0
Russell         62  82  58  89 /  20  10   0   0
Great Bend      63  80  57  87 /  20  10   0   0
Salina          64  83  60  88 /  20  10   0   0
McPherson       63  81  58  86 /  30  10   0   0
Coffeyville     68  79  61  87 /  60  30   0   0
Chanute         67  79  60  86 /  60  20   0   0
Iola            65  79  59  85 /  50  20   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    67  79  60  87 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...KMB



Office: GLD FXUS63 KGLD 162315 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 515 PM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 320 PM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 The Flood Warning for Cheyenne County Kansas for Hackberry Creek has been cancelled as Emergency Management confirmed that the flood waters have receded. There is no immediate threat to life or property. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 215 PM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed along and south of the Palmer Divide this afternoon. They will continue to move east and southeast this evening, skirting the southwestern portion of the forecast area. Instability may be sufficient for a few stronger storms through early evening before weakening, but severe storms are not expected. Later tonight, areas of fog will develop as saturation occurs in the very moist air mass in place. Hard to pin down one area over another for the potential of dense fog, though models have been pointing to eastern Colorado and Norton and Graham counties as possibilities. Low temperatures will be in the 50s. After morning clouds and fog, Wednesday will see partly cloudy and warmer conditions with high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Precipitation chances look to stay south of the area. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be in the 50s For Thursday and Friday, will be under weak northwest flow aloft. A cold front will move through Thursday afternoon and evening. Models mostly dry but may see a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm in eastern areas from McCook to Hill City in the afternoon or evening with the front where some weak instability develops. Areas is not currently outlooked for severe weather. On Friday, will be in a post frontal set up with possibly a few showers/storms migrating off the Front Range and Palmer Divide into western portions of the forecast area during the typical afternoon/evening hours. Currently instability forecasts are meager, less than 500 j/k, so once again no severe storms are expected. Highs on both days will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 219 PM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Saturday morning the upper-level trough is off to our east- northeast as another low sets up to the west over Utah/Nevada. Disturbances moving into the upper ridge ahead of that low will result in a more active weather pattern for our region. PWAT values are expected to exceed an inch Saturday afternoon through Monday night, still near an inch through Tuesday. While chances for showers and storms continue through the period, the most favorable timing for measurable precipitation currently appears to be late Saturday into Sunday, especially over southern and western portions of the area. High temperatures will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s with lows in the mid-50s to near 60. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 515 PM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Both terminals will see VFR skies through about 05z-06z Wednesday. Ridge axis of surface high pressure will nose into the region, allowing for mainly IFR ceilings from about 06z Wednesday through approx 17z. Looking for fog to develop as well with mainly 5-6sm in visibility, but KMCK could see nearly 2-3sm by 11z. Winds for KGLD, northeast 5-10kts through 06z Wednesday then east-southeast. Winds for KMCK, east-northeast 5-10kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Trigg SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...JN
Office: TOP FXUS63 KTOP 162341 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 641 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Key Points: - Isolated showers, drizzle, and some fog linger into tonight - Next chance of showers and storms arrives Friday - Staying cool with occasional rain chances into next week A very cool and cloudy day for mid-August across the area, with temperatures hovering near 70 across all but far southern portions of the forecast area. To the north of a strong late summer cold front, northeast winds have locked in the low-level moisture. This is keeping the clouds and cool temps in place, along with a few showers south of I-70. A weak surface low currently across northeast Oklahoma continues to move southeast, gradually pulling the boundary south. This trend will continue overnight and into tomorrow morning, with some drizzle and isolated showers lingering underneath the thick stratus deck. With the plentiful moisture and light winds in place, some fog may also try to develop late, especially across northern Kansas as skies begin to clear. Weak surface high pressure moves into the area tomorrow into Thursday, allowing the stratus to fully clear out. Temperatures will be a bit warmer given the sunshine, but with little WAA highs will still be in the 80s both days. Lows stay below average as well, generally in the low 60s. The next chance for precipitation arrives Friday, as an upper low drops southward into the longwave eastern CONUS trough. This will push a cold front southward as well during the afternoon. Some uncertainty as to the quality of moisture along the front, but convergence along the boundary will likely be enough for a few showers and thunderstorms, especially in far eastern Kansas. By Saturday and into early next week, the upper low gradually moves off to the east, with weak zonal flow remaining in place across the central CONUS. Friday's cold front will stall out a bit south of the area. Additional rounds of rain will likely develop along this boundary as several weak disturbances move along it. With plenty of subtropical moisture in place, especially by Monday/Tuesday as a weak system moves north from the western Gulf, this seems like a favorable setup for a round or two of heavy rain. At this time however, the placement of the quasi-stationary boundary across southern Kansas and Oklahoma tends to favor points south of our forecast area for significant rainfall. This is reflected in the both the ensemble mean and WPC 7 day total QPF, but we'll nevertheless keep an eye on the setup to the south over the next few days for any shifts. Regardless, the chance for at least some light rain will linger into next week, most likely south of I-70. Temperatures through this period remain a bit below average, with highs in the low/mid 80s and lows in the low 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 628 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 MVFR stratus is likely to hold through the evening and nighttime hours with just a slight increase in CIGS at each site. Even with the stratus, reduced visibilities also look plausible, so have kept mention of MVFR visibilities going after 05/06Z. Expect stratus to lift and scatter out by mid-morning on Wednesday with VFR TAFs forecast beyond that point. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Reese AVIATION...Teefey
Office: DDC FXUS63 KDDC 170400 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1100 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 ...updated aviation... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Main challenge tonight will be precipitation chances and potential for heavy rainfall from storms moving across portions of extreme southwest Kansas. CAMS are coming into better agreement today with a moist upslope flow developing this Tuesday afternoon across southeast Colorado and the Panhandle of Oklahoma. This moist upslope flow combined with afternoon heating will likely result in scattered afternoon convection across southeast Colorado. These thunderstorms will then track southeast along this moist instability axis overnight and 700mb 10-12C temperature gradient which would place locations near and southwest of a Lakin to Meade line in a favorable area (30-80%) for overnight thunderstorms. Highest/most favorable area will be Morton county (80%). Thunderstorms that do cross this area overnight will be capable of producing heavy rainfall based on the RAP forecast of precipitable water values in this area ranging from 1.4 to 1.6in and 12z Tuesday HREF has a +70% probability of >=1” 6hr rainfall appearing across Morton county from 00z to 06z Wednesday. Later shifts will monitor the flash flood potential but at this time given the high 1, 3, 6hr flash flood guidance tonight and how isolated the heavy rainfall is expected have decided not to issue a Flash Flood Watch for tonight for extreme southwest Kansas. Isolated wind gusts of 50 to near 60mph will also be possible early in the event, before sunset. This cluster of thunderstorms will continue to track across the Panhandle of Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle and into western Oklahoma early Wednesday. Any lingering precipitation, mainly near the Oklahoma border is expected to taper off after 18z Wednesday as an upper level trough moves across western Kansas. Temperatures will be unseasonably cool with highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 The key message in the later periods are the extended cooler, more seasonal, temperatures. Will also be monitoring the potential for some widespread rain returning to portions of southwest Kansas. The latest ECMWF and GEFS ensembles remain in generally good agreement through the end of the week with the largest discrepancy over the weekend being the strength and exact location of an upper low that will be moving out of south central Canada and into the western Great Lakes. A cold front will be working its way south across the Northern Plains but at this time it appears that this front and cooler air now will be ending up staying north southwest Kansas. This further north cold front position solution does support not introducing a cooling trend this upcoming weekend..HOWEVER given that both the ECMWF and GEFS ensembles both are showing that a 500mb deformation zone along with a increasing moisture and lift over some part of southwest Kansas which would not only favor increasing chance for precipitation but will also result in cooler temperatures. Confidence at this time is not high that far out in the forecast period on exactly where this moisture, lift and cooler temperatures will be located so stay close to the latest guidance for a chance for precipitation or high temperatures from Sunday through early next week. Given all this it appears southwest Kansas will enjoy highs in the 80s through Friday with upper 80s to lower 90s being possible until the clouds and precipitation returns due to the developing deformation zone. The coolest temperatures late this weekend into early next week along with improving chances for precipitation will occur west and south of Dodge City. In this area highs only in the 70s look to be a real possibility if everything comes together. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1111 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 A weather system will impact the terminals through the overnight hours. Showers with isolated thunder will continue across far SW Kansas, with the main impacts at KLBL through the early morning. In addition, upslope stratus will continue to fill in across the terminals through the next several hours. MVFR/IFR cigs will be likely during this period. There could be some patchy fog/br across central Kansas where the moisture is more confined to the near sfc. Winds will remain NE 5-15 kt through much of pd. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 61 79 58 88 / 30 20 0 10 GCK 61 80 57 87 / 50 10 0 10 EHA 61 76 58 86 / 70 60 0 20 LBL 63 78 59 87 / 70 60 0 10 HYS 62 81 57 88 / 10 10 0 0 P28 65 80 60 87 / 30 20 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Burgert LONG TERM...Burgert AVIATION...Sugden