ky discuss
Office: JKL
FXUS63 KJKL 132340
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
740 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 740 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2022
At 2340z, regional radar shows weak reflectivity echoes
dropping south into CVG area and extending back toward IND. This
light precipitation is falling from mid-level cloud cover associated
with an upper level vort/jet max. This activity should continue to
progress southeastward and generally weaken. Dry air in the low-
levels is causing most of the precipitation to evaporate before
reaching the ground. However, a few sprinkles cannot be ruled out
north of the Mountain Parkway as this disturbance passes. Thus
have added 20 percent chance of sprinkles over northern locations
for much of the night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 430 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2022
20Z sfc analysis shows high pressure holding strong over eastern
Kentucky, though an area of low pressure is inbound from the
northwest. Mostly just a smattering of cu at 4 to 5k feet AGL are
noted over our southeast parts of the area amid light and variable
winds. Plenty of sunshine helped temperatures climb into the
upper 70s and lower 80s for highs while dewpoints were fairly
comfortable in the upper 50s to low 60s most places.
The models are still in fairly good agreement aloft through the
short term portion of the forecast. They all depict troughing
through the northeast portion of the country while ridging remains
stout over the Southern Plains. This places Kentucky in the
northwest flow glide-path at mid levels with another impulse
moving overhead later Sunday sending 5h heights down a notch
locally. The GFS digs its trough just a bit stronger than the
ECMWF to our northeast later Sunday night but similar to the NAM.
For this reason did not deviate much from the blended NBM solution
though did add a touch of PoP details from the CAMs for Sunday.
Sensible weather will feature another pleasant night of relatively
cool temperatures - though limited by increasing mid and high
level clouds later in the night. We should still see a quicker
dropoff to temps in the valleys this evening and this has been
represented in the grids. Additionally, expect a touch of valley
fog later tonight - especially if the clouds remain thin into the
early morning hours. The approaching sfc low pressure center then
brings scattered to numerous showers and storms to the area later
Sunday - enhanced late in the day by better instability despite
highs for many places lower than those of today. This system's
movement through the JKL CWA Sunday night will keep shower and
storm chances around into Monday morning though a cooler airmass
follows on its heels to start the work week. The rainfall from
this low is expected to be on the light side and progressive
enough to preclude any renewed flooding concerns. We are certainly
in a different (and much welcomed) weather pattern than that of
the past few weeks!
The bulk of any changes to the NBM starting grids were to tweak
the PoPs on Sunday to add in a bit more detail from the CAMs.
Also, incorporated some enhanced terrain distinction into the T
and MinT grids for tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2022
Global models show good agreement in the upper level pattern through
the duration of the long term period. A trough axis will extend from
Central Appalachia, through the lower Great Lakes and into eastern
Canada. A broad ridge of high pressure will cover a large portion of
the CONUS west of the Mississippi River with monsoonal moisture
being advected into the Desert Southwest and Great Basin regions.
Shortwave energy dropping southeast through the Mississippi and
Ohio valleys will help deepen the trough across the east. This
will support a surface low and cold font that will pass over the
Commonwealth early Monday. This will support showers and storms
across the area through Monday evening. PWAT values over eastern
Kentucky will range from 1-1.2 inches Monday and generally less
than an inch behind the cold front. Winds behind the front will
shift to the north which will help dry out the area and will also
keep temperatures a degree or two below normal for August.
Energy will continue to round the top of the ridge and flow into the
base of the trough which will lower heights across the area through
the end of the week. This will support scattered afternoon showers
and storms, mainly across the higher terrain. Temperatures during
the long term will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s while
overnight lows will fall into the upper 50s to low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2022
VFR conditions should prevail through the period aside from the
possibility for late night MVFR fog at LOZ. Patchy mid-level
cloud cover will also pass through the area tonight. Some of
these clouds will be thick enough to produce spotty virga,
especially north of the Mtn. Pkwy. A low pressure system will
bring the threat for widely scattered to scattered showers on
Sunday, but confidence in the timing was not sufficient to include
in the TAFs at this time.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...BATZ
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Office: LMK
FXUS63 KLMK 132322
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
722 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Short Term...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022
Things are quiet across the CWA at this hour with temperatures
currently in the upper 70s and low 80s, and comfortable dew points.
We'll still squeeze a couple/few more degrees out of the day in many
spots, which should put most everyone in the low to mid 80s, a bit
below normal for this time of year.
We'll see increasing upper sky cover later this evening and into the
overnight, ahead of a system dropping out of the western Great
Lakes. Some scattered shower chances will start to spread from N to
S across our area from the early morning hours of Sunday through the
day, but overall anything the moves into our area will be battling
an already dry atmospheric column in place. So, will keep coverage
in the scattered range. There is some modest MUCAPE evident in the
data and on model soundings, so can't completely rule out a few
rumbles of thunder, especially toward the Bluegrass. However, think
it will mostly be showers on Sunday morning into early afternoon.
Things should be improving over most of the central and western CWA
by later in the afternoon and evening.
Temperatures for tomorrow are tricky given the chance of
precipitation ruining the most optimal heating conditions. Going
with pretty warm temps in the upper 80s to near 90 across our SW
where it likely won't rain, but will likely stay in the low to mid
80s across the rest of the CWA deeper into the cloud cover and
precipitation chances.
.Long Term...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022
At the start of the extended period, upper ridging will be centered
over the western two-thirds of the CONUS while upper troughing
extends across the eastern third. At the surface, an area of low
pressure will be slowly drifting southeast through the OH Valley,
dragging a weak cold front through the area. May see some lingering
showers and storms Sunday night into Monday across east-central KY
(generally near and east of I-75) in the vicinity of the surface low
and better moisture, but overall expect mostly dry weather to start
the week.
For the midweek timeframe (Tue - Thu), a couple of shortwaves will
dive southeast through the Mid-Upper MS Valley into the TN Valley,
bringing periodic rain chances. However, model guidance continues to
trend the precip farther west and south, with low-end PoPs just
brushing south-central KY. In general, expect the coming week to be
mostly dry for a majority of the area, but will continue to monitor
any potential shifts in the precip track over the next few days.
Temperatures will hover near and just below climatological normals
through the period with highs generally in the lower to mid 80s and
lows in the 60s.
&&
.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022
IMPACTS:
- VFR conditions overnight
- Scattered showers Sunday morning
DISCUSSION:
VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming forecast period.
Skies will remain partly cloudy overnight due to high clouds
dropping southward through the region. Surface winds will generally
be very light out of the southeast, before shifting to the
south/southwest toward dawn Sunday morning. Expect cigs to drop to
around 6-10kft AGL after sunrise Sunday with scattered rain showers
dropping southeastward. Best chances of rain showers look to be at
KHNB/KSDF/KLEX through the early afternoon hours.
CONFIDENCE:
High on all elements.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Short Term...BJS
Long Term...JML
Aviation...MJ
Office: PAH
FXUS63 KPAH 132333
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
633 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022
.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022
Dewpoints have mixed down nicely this afternoon and expect that
much of the region, especially east of the Mississippi River,
will be into the 50s. Meanwhile, high temperatures have
underachieved over southeast Missouri.
There still is little clarity in the PoP forecast for late tonight
and Sunday morning. Tried to blend the NBM PPI with the ConsShort
hourly PoPs to get 20-30% PoPs, mainly north of I-64 just before
sunrise and then sliding east southeast through southwest Indiana
through the morning. Instability will be minimal, so a brief
heavy downpour and lightning will be the primary concerns. This
activity will precede the cold front which will enter northwest
portions of the region around 18Z.
Despite the frontal passage, guidance continues to keep the
entire area dry later Sunday and Sunday night. Given the hot and
humid conditions expected over southeast Missouri Sunday
afternoon, the presence of the front, and possibly some help from
the terrain, it would not be at all surprising to see some widely
scattered convection out there in the late afternoon or evening.
Speaking of the heat and humidity, a few locations, mainly over
Carter and Ripley counties, may see heat indices reach 100 degrees
for an hour or two Sunday afternoon. However, given how much
temperatures underperformed out there today, that may be a bit
aggressive.
Surface high pressure will build over the region Monday and that
should keep the area dry through Monday evening. Much of the 12Z
guidance brings an upper disturbance southeast toward the region
late Monday night and that could generate enough isentropic lift
to support some rain into at least southeast Missouri by daybreak
Tuesday. A few thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out to
the west of KPOF.
As for temperatures, with the dry air over the region, and what
should be fairly light temperatures, the consensus MinT tonight
was undercut by a few degrees. Mid-level clouds will be
increasing, but may not be solid or persistent enough in any one
area to hold temperatures up much. For the remainder of the short
term period, the NBM guidance was followed closely.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022
The synoptic pattern at the beginning of the extended period will
feature an upper level low over the northeast U.S. and ridging
across the west. In between, northwesterly upper level flow will be
in place across our area. Models agree that a frontal boundary will
be strung out to our southwest, with a surface low near the KS/OK
border which will translate southeastward with time. Mid level
vorticity will propagate southeast and aid in an overrunning rain
event to the north of the surface boundary.
Guidance is still struggling somewhat with timing of precip start
time, with the GFS and its ensemble mean the fastest (Tue morning)
and Canadian and its ensemble the slowest (Tue night into Wed).
Whichever ends up panning out will have an impact on high
temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday. If the faster solution pans
out, highs would likely struggle to reach much above the lower 70s
on Tuesday across the southwest half of the region. Meanwhile, the
slower solution would mean Wednesday highs would be quite a bit
cooler than forecast across the southern third of the area. For now
the middle ground approach seems reasonable, with rain spreading
into the area midday/afternoon Tuesday and departing by midday
Wednesday. This leads to highs forecast in the 75-80 range on
Tuesday and around 80 on Wednesday.
There is good agreement keeping the bulk of the rain focused across
southeast Missouri, the Jackson Purchase area of west Kentucky, and
areas south of Route 13 in southern Illinois. Areas to the north and
east may not receive much, if any rain from this system. Portions of
southeast Missouri, particularly the Ozark Foothills, may very well
pick up amounts in excess of 1", and possibly up to 2". QPF amounts
were lower with this forecast compared to the previous and
fluctuations will likely continue.
Dry conditions are expected to return by Wednesday night through
Friday as high pressure over the Great Lakes develops southward.
With north/northeasterly surface flow in place, temperatures will
continue to be below normal with highs primarily in the low to mid
80s. There is a hint at energy translating through the upper level
trough across our region next Saturday, which may provide our next
chance for precipitation.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sat Aug 13 2022
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. However, in
Indiana, primarily north of I-64, there may be scattered shower and
tstm activity around daybreak. Otherwise, overnight fog is unlikely
to occur, even at KCGI, with the winds just off the surface and the
hydrolapse working against it. Surface winds will be primarily
southerly but very light to calm for most of the night. The surface
winds are expected to kick in out of the southwest by mid-morning,
sustained at 10-11 knots, gusting 15-20 knots (highest in the
northern half of the region) and slowly diminishing during the
afternoon.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...SP
AVIATION...DB
