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Office: GYX

FXUS61 KGYX 170411
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1211 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure developing off the East Coast will track northward
late tonight and Wednesday with latest guidance bringing the
low in or near the Gulf of Maine Wednesday night. This will
bring increasing chances for a soaking rain particularly across
Maine into Thursday morning with breezy NNE winds along the
coast. This system exits to the northeast Thursday afternoon
with high pressure building in Friday through the weekend for
mostly fair weather and warmer temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
12am Update...Just one or two isolated showers across the
foothills at this time, likely developing along region of
remaining instability from this afternoon and incoming forcing
from SE. Rain continues south of the CWA, with light totals so
far. While MRMS returns begin to populate along the ME and NH
seacoast, don't expect more scattered showers until the mid
morning hours here.

930pm Update...Showers have dissipated as expected...so now
attention turns to gradually increasing chances along the coast
and moving inland thru morning.

Previous discussion...Through early evening, expect scattered
showers to diminish as we lose daytime heating and will see a
break in showers through the midnight hours. Low pressure
developing S of New England will begin spread showers into the
southern zones during the pre- dawn. Lows range from the upper
50s N to the low 60s S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
930pm Update...I have increased wave heights in the northeast
flow Wed. Guidance typically is too bearish on wave forecast
from that direction...so I sided with the highest of guidance.
As a result winds south of Cape Elizabeth are around 7 ft...and
I have issued a high surf advisory.

Previous discussion...Models coming further into agreement that
sfc low tracking N across the Gulf of Me in the morning gets
pulled back to the NW by upper level low Wed night, before
shifting back NE with the upper low Thursday. This system will
bring some much needed rain to much of the area, and the
potential for too much is possible in a few spots. Initially the
rain will be more showery in the morning, and may not make into
NW zone until afternoon. Steadier rain will move onshore in
coastal ME during the afternoon. Winds will also pick up near
the coast with a few gusts to 30 mph. I think the heaviest rain
will be late Wednesday into Wednesday,. But pinpointing it is
the issue. While QPF shows a larger area of 1” amounts, I think
that Somewhat higher amounts will be focused into small areas
and widespread rain may be closer to half to three quarters of
an inch. Coast areas are the concern for the heaviest rain as
there are signs that coastal front become focus for strong low
level convergence as gradient winds shift to NW, and run into
marine layer. The HRRR/NAM3K/CMC all focus heaviest rain around
Casco Bay. But, will have to watch for some localized heavy rain
along and just inland anywhere near the coast. Srn and central
NH, will like see less rain, and it could end up just being
showery Wed into wed night. Highs on Wednesday will be cool, mid
to upper 60s in most places, but may reach into the low 70s in
srn NH, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s Wed night.

Thursday will see system shifting to the NE, and it will be
producing wrap around showers which will shift N through the
day, with some sun in the south during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain will steadily clear up from south to north overnight
Friday as low pressure exits the area with clearing coming in
quickly behind it. Temperatures will be on the rise after the
low moves out with highs reaching into the 70s to mid 80s Friday
before really warming up Saturday and Sunday with highs in the
80s with southern areas approaching 90 degrees. High pressure
will generally be overhead this weekend with mostly sunny skies.
Low pressure will track nearby Sunday as it makes its way up
the east coast and out to sea which could bring some higher
winds and waves over the outer waters towards the end of the
weekend.

A weak shortwave will slowly make its way across the Great Lakes and
into New England by Monday.  Guidance suggests that this shortwave
will bring generally unsettled conditions to the area for the first
half of next week.  I am sticking close with the NBM and ensembles
for now since weaker systems like these are hard for models to
capture, especially in the long term.  Looking at 500mb vorticity,
the driving shortwave looks to be dissipating by the time it reaches
New England which would favor lighter unorganized showers. Some of
the deterministic models show a secondary shortwave coming in close
behind which could reinforce lifting and enhance showers. For the
time being, I have kept PoPs to a chance for early next week until
the models show better signals for this system.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...IFR/LIFR expected at all terminals /except maybe
KHIE/ Wed afternoon through Wed night, with improvement from SW
to NE on Thursday. Coastal terminals could see wind gust to 25
kts Wed afternoon and evening.

Long Term...Conditions will quickly clear to VFR overnight Friday
with showers lingering at KHIE and KLEB the longest.  High pressure
will linger through the weekend before ceilings thicken and lower as
unsettled conditions move in for early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Low pressure track N tonight into the Gulf of ME
and then NW toward the ME coast Wednesday. This will produce
gusty ENE flow starting late tonight into Wed evening,
eventually shifting to NW late Wed night, and possible
continuing into Thu.


Long Term...Winds and seas will gradually subside to 1-2 ft for the
weekend with winds mostly from the west.  Low pressure will track
nearby Sunday which could bring some higher winds and waves over the
outer waters before unsettled conditions set in next week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for MEZ023.
NH...High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for NHZ014.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 8 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ150-152.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 8 PM EDT
     this evening for ANZ151-153.
     Gale Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ154.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...Cornwell/Legro



Office: CAR FXUS61 KCAR 170455 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1255 AM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure developing well to our south will lift north into the Gulf of Maine today, then eastern Maine Thursday, and across the Maritimes Friday. High pressure from the west will build back over the area for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1255am update...Upper level clouds continue to stream in from the south ahead of the approaching surface low as seen on current satellite imagery. This high level cloud cover will prevent fog formation Downeast, though enough clear skies remain across northern Aroostook county to allow for some patchy fog formation. The window is quickly closing for radiational cooling, however, as cirrus continue to push northwards. Temperatures and winds remain on track with the previous forecast, and only small adjustments were needed with this update. Previous discussion... The larger closed off surface low pressure system will continue to track from the Mid- Atlantic states toward the Gulf of Maine tonight. High-res models show some convective showers lasting into the late evening, especially in the North Woods and higher terrain. As the night continues, clouds will increase from south to north as the low advances. This will keep temps slightly warmer in the south with mid 60s expected while the north will see upper 50s. By Wednesday morning, the rain line from the low pressure system will make its way onshore. Recent guidance shows the system moving slightly faster than previously forecasted. In addition, QPF models are showing the majority of rain falling over the south and central parts of the region into the afternoon. Amounts are expected to reach up to 2” in some areas. 925-850mb indicate a cold airmass being wrapped into the occlusion of the system, causing temps to only reach into the low 70s in the north and mid 60s in the south. Cooler temps in the south mainly due to early cloud cover and strong NE flow. Speaking of winds, tightening pressure gradients with the closed low will increase NE winds with gusts up to 25mph. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Wed night...sfc low will be sitting over the Gulf of Maine just south of Penobscot Bay 00z Thu with a gradual drift to the north at night. As stratiform rain moves onshore during the evening it will rotate up thru central areas. PW values increase to near 1.5 inches throughout the overnight. As upr low drifts thru the state Wed night bands wl likely develop and with elevated instability being shown cannot rule out isolated storms, leading to locally heavy downpours, given juicy airmass and very little flow thru the atmosphere as system becomes vertically stacked. Upr lvl low will slowly capture it late at night with bands continuing to rotate thru the area as dry slot likely moves into Downeast areas at some point drg the night. Thursday will see sfc and H5 low continue to drift north and east before opening up and ejecting into New Brunswick. Isolated storms look to move into the north drg the aftn, possibly producing heavy rain at times throughout the day. Overall still looking at between 1- 1.5 inches across the entire region thru the day on Thursday. Temps likely to have a hard time climbing out of the 60s given rain and clouds. Thursday night...H5 low ejects into NB late Thu night with showers slowly diminishing over the north after midnight. GFS remains slowest operational guidance in lifting low out as it is slower dropping upr kicker out of James Bay than other guidance. Friday will see moderating temps as sfc high builds back into the area fm the west in the afternoon. Temps will fall just short of seasonal norms. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure remains across the FA keeping showers at bay with dry airmass in place thru the weekend. GFS much quicker to break down upr ridge as aforementioned s/wv out of James Bay makes a beeline for nrn half of the CWA while EC and GEM move it into nrn Quebec in H5 sw flow. Have discounted operational GFS as the outlier as it does not even have support of it's ensemble mean. Temps will be above normal for the weekend and into early next week. Next wx-maker for the region will be a deepening trough dropping into the upr Midwest with showers moving into the areas on Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR conditions for all terminals tonight. NE wind 5-10 kts. For Wednesday, VFR in the early morning hours, then conditions will decrease to MVFR/IFR from south to north throughout the day in rain. NE winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 30 kts. SHORT TERM: Wed night-Thu...All terminals MVFR/IFR in low cigs, rain and patchy fog. NE 5-15kts and gusty Wed night, becoming variable on Thu. Thu night...Downeast terminals becoming VFR late with MVFR/IFR restrictions across north. W 5-10kts. Fri-Sun...VFR. W 5-10kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will be below SCA conditions for tonight. Low visibilities in patchy fog. For Wednesday, winds will increase with gusts up to 30 kts and seas up to 5 ft. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Wednesday. SHORT TERM: Seas remain above 5ft on the outer waters thru the day on Thu and SCA will continue thru the time. Conditions will remain below SCA levels Thu evening through the weekend. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser/LaFlash Short Term...Buster Long Term...Buster Aviation...AStrauser/LaFlash/Buster Marine...AStrauser/LaFlash/Buster