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Office: MPX

FXUS63 KMPX 170402
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1102 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Little change in the broad-scale pattern is expected over the next
week, meaning cooler and cloudier weather will continue along with a
few chances for precipitation as a number of vorticity maxima pass
overhead. Despite the multiple chances for rain, not much
precipitation is expected over the week as a stationary front draped
over the southeast limits the moisture flow into the region. For
tonight through Thursday, a slow moving low over western Ontario will
drop a weak front through the region. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along this front as it slowly moves
through the region, with the best chances coming Wednesday morning
and late Wednesday afternoon/evening. Patchy fog will develop in
rural and low-lying areas again tonight, but more widespread
cloud cover will keep any widespread dense fog from developing.

More widespread precipitation is expected late Thursday through
Friday through this weekend, as a shortwave develops into a
vertically-stacked low, and sits over the Upper Midwest for a few
days. On and off periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected
beginning Thursday night and lasting through Saturday, with total
rainfall amounts of around half an inch to an inch likely. Cloudy
skies in addition to the periodic rain will keep high temperatures in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

Weak surface high pressure moves in behind the weekend low, with
mostly dry weather expected Sunday though the first half of next
week. Continued northwest flow aloft will keep temperatures on the
cooler side, with highs generally in the mid 70s. Precipitation
chances become more likely by Wednesday and into the end of the
week, as another slow-moving front sags southward out of canada.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

No big changes to the going TAFs with the 6z update. Showers have
really struggled to get going this evening, with confidence in
evolution in showers this period still pretty low, so have very
little precip mention still in TAFs. Currently anticipate some
scattered activity Wed morning in central MN, a bit of a break until
the late afternoon when diurnally driven activity should develop over
central/eastern MN, with an expansion in shower activity expected
Wednesday night across eastern MN and western WI. Through all of
this, we expect light south winds and VFR conditions to continue,
with little fog potential tonight.

KMSP...Shower threat Wednesday morning continues to diminish, with
scattered activity expected late Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday night.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. -SHRA likely, chc TSRA late aftn thru overnight. Wind SW
      5-10 kts.
Fri...Periods of -shra/MVFR chc -TSRA. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Sat...MVFR/SHRA likely. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...MPG



Office: DLH FXUS63 KDLH 170548 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1248 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Summary: Patches to areas of dense fog is possible again tonight and tomorrow night, and may affect the morning commute. An active pattern continues for the rest of the week with numerous chances for precipitation and thunderstorms. A break from precipitation is expected next week. A line of thunderstorms moving through northern Minnesota and popping up in northwestern Wisconsin will continue to move to the south and east this evening. Instability remains in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, leaving shear much to be desired at around 20 kts. Weak winds throughout the vertical column will lead to slow storm motion, and with PW values above an inch, some flash flooding looks to be the biggest threat with these storms. Though most storms will be sub-severe, gusty winds form microbursts and up to one inch hail will also be possible. The shortwave will continue to move through the CWA Wednesday, and will spark another chance for showers and thunderstorms early Wednesday morning and lasting through the day. These storms will be in a similar setup to today, with a moist atmosphere, marginal CAPE, and weak shear. It will be another day of gusty winds, small hail, and the possibility for flash flooding. These showers and thunderstorms will help in chances for fog overnight tonight and Wednesday night. High dewpoints and lowering temperatures could result in more fog to dense fog overnight, mainly in north central Minnesota and along the North Shore. Dense Fog Advisories may be needed. The combination of shortwaves and diurnal instability will keep this pattern of scattered chances of showers and storms going for the rest of the week. The largest system for the week will be with a closed upper level low moves southward through the Upper Midwest Thursday evening and into the weekend. This will bring widespread showers and embedded isolated thunderstorms. There is some uncertainty on how long the precipitation from this system will last, with some models ending it on Saturday, and others having it remain through the weekend. Either way, come late Sunday into Monday, a high pressure will settle over the Northland and we may see a small window of dry conditions. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Widely varied flight conditions have been observed around the region early this morning, with a mix of VFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities. As of TAF issuance, both DLH and HIB have fallen to LIFR low ceilings and visibility reductions due to fog. Model guidance is not handling these conditions very well. With the precipitation seen during the day yesterday, we're thinking that these conditions should persist through the early morning hours, eventually improving after sunrise this morning. Attention then turns to increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon hours. Similar to yesterday, if any of these heavier showers and thunderstorms move over an airport terminal, it should reduce the flight conditions to MVFR or IFR. More fog/low ceilings are possible tonight, but confidence is very low at this time on specifics. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Northeasterly winds and high humidity in the head of the lake tonight could lead to fog again later tonight and through tomorrow morning. Otherwise, winds will be below 15 kts and will switch to the southwest starting tomorrow. Showers and storms tonight over the North Shore and Twin Ports may be strong with winds up to 40 kts and hail up to 0.75". Scattered showers and storms will continue to be be expected over the lake on and off throughout the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 58 77 60 77 / 100 70 40 60 INL 59 78 57 77 / 40 10 20 70 BRD 62 80 60 79 / 60 40 30 70 HYR 57 78 58 80 / 20 50 50 50 ASX 58 81 61 81 / 40 60 40 50 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kossen AVIATION...JTS MARINE...Kossen