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Office: ILM

FXUS62 KILM 110721
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
321 AM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach the coastal Carolinas today and move
south and east of the area late Friday. This front will bring a
chance of thunderstorms through Friday followed by much lower
humidity and slightly cooler temperatures this weekend. Another
cold front will cross the region late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Mid to upper trough will suppress ridge farther south as it
pushes a cold front through the Carolinas late today into Fri.
Winds ahead of the front will have a large westerly component
through today with a slight backing to SW later today at the sfc
before coming around to the north after front moves through
after this forecast period, on Fri.

Overall, there will be an increase in mid to high clouds
through today which may put a damper on aftn heating, but expect
an increase in thunderstorm chances heading into late today.
Not overly confident on thunderstorm coverage, but expect shwrs
and fairly decent coverage of pcp across the area, but higher
QPF totals may be more spotty. The westerly steering flow will
drive any clouds, including debris clouds from tstms and any
storms toward the east or toward the coast and offshore.

Pcp water ramps up late this aftn over I-95 corridor and shifts
toward the coast over night with greater than 2 inches at that
time. The winds don't look very impressive though with 15-20kts
through the low to mid levels. SPC keeps area only in general
thunder and WPC leaves us out of any excessive rainfall area,
although we could use rain in most of the area. High temps will
be up near 90 most places with slightly higher values closer to
the coast where cloud cover will be less to start the day.
Overnight lows tonight will be between 70 and 75 most places
with clouds and shwrs around.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A synoptic scale mid-level trough will become established by
Friday over the east coast. A shortwave trough axis will cross
the coast by the end of Friday. The precipitable water shows the
deep moisture being shunted off the coast and dropping to
values of 1" or less by Saturday Afternoon. 850 mb Temperatures
drop to 14.5C by Saturday afternoon. The good chance of
thunderstorms will decrease from north to south on Friday as the
cold front shift to the south.

At the surface, a cold front will cross the forecast area and
shift off the coast on Friday evening. Behind the front,
dewpoints are expected to drop into the upper 50s. The 00 UTC
GFS is more aggressive on the low- level drier air than the NAM.

Maximum temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper
80s, and the lows will fall into the middle and upper 60s with a
few lower 70s at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The synoptic scale mid-level trough will remain over the east
coast, a shortwave in the northwest flow is expected to cross
the region on Tuesday, bringing a chance of thunderstorms to the
area on Monday and Tuesday with decreasing chances on
Wednesday.

The extended highs and low temperatures are expected to be at
or just below climatological values. Climatological Maximum and
Minimum temperatures for the middle part of August are near 90
and lower 70s, respectively.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are
expected through most of the 06Z TAF period with increasing chc
of MVFR in shwrs and tstms later on Thurs into Thurs night.
Mainly mid to high clouds increasing through the forecast period
with stratocu developing Thurs aftn/eve around 4-5k ft. WSW
winds will remain 5 to 10 kt through early morning keeping fog
out of the terminals and will remain near 10 kts through Fri
aftn but gustier at coastal terminals in aftn sea breeze.
Showers and storms will increase ahead of cold front late
tomorrow after 21z inland and closer to 00z coastal terminals.
Should see some borderline MVFR in tstms associated with front
and some shra to follow with fog possible inland toward Fri
morning.

Extended Outlook...Showers and thunderstorms ahead and along
cold front should continue into Fri, with uptick along coastal
terminals Fri aftn before improvement coming in from the
northwest through late Fri. VFR through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Through tonight:
SW winds will become more WSW through today as cold front moves
into and through the Carolinas, but not making it through the
waters until later on Fri. remain around 15-20 kts late tonight
through tomorrow. Seas remain in the 2 to 4 ft range with an
increase in SW flow ahead of cold front into Fri morning. Should
see westerly component to flow keep greatest seas offshore
aside from afternoon chop in sea breeze close to the coast Thurs
aftn into early eve. Southeast swell slowly diminishes through
today into tonight with shorter period SW to W wind wave
dominating, mainly 10 to 15 kts with some higher gusts.

Friday through Monday:
A cold front will cross the waters on Friday, shift offshore
into the weekend, and remain east of the coastal waters through
Monday.

Friday morning, winds will be west 10 to 15 knots ahead of the
front and will veer to the north behind the front. Saturday
through Monday will see the winds veering from the north to
south through the period. Wind speeds are expected to be around
10 knots.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108-
     110.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...RGZ/RH



Office: MHX FXUS62 KMHX 110211 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1011 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving cold front will move into the region and bring more unsettled weather to end the work week. Refreshing high pressure will build back into the area by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 10 PM Wednesday... Biggest changes on this forecast package have been the slight adjustment of temps and dewpoints primarily along the Outer Banks this evening given the ongoing rain and thunderstorm activity and expectation that temps will not rise much from where they are now given the current observations. Otherwise outflow boundaries continue to slowly make their way southwards this evening while tapping into the 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE allowing for fairly widespread rain and thunderstorm activity across Martin, Washington, and Tyrrell Counties this evening with a few embedded strong wind gusts, heavy rain and frequent lightning in some of the storms. This activity is forecast to gradually wane in coverage over the next few hours as instability decreases Otherwise the forecast remains on track for this evening with shower and thunderstorm activity forecast to continue to decrease in coverage later tonight allowing for a brief lull in activity. The aforementionedoutflow boundaries are then forecast to settle in and stall in the CWA and become the primary focus for additional shower and thunderstorm activity in the CWA on Thursday. Lows tonight are forecast to remain in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... As of 10 PM Wednesday... Thursday, a cold front will continue to approach the region from the northwest. Meanwhile, to the south of the front, a plume of better quality moisture will overspread the area from the SW, with origins off the Gulf of Mexico. Within the plume of moisture, 2"+ PWats return. The key message here is that increasing moisture and instability south of the synoptic front should lead to an increased risk of convection during this time. But, there are some caveats worth pointing out. Outflow boundary (from weakening convection in northern NC is forecast to work further south into our FA tonight. With this in mind convection on Thursday is forecast to be focused near/south of where this boundary stalls, with a lower risk to the north of it with additional activity possible along the seabreeze as well tomorrow afternoon. With better quality moisture in place and the potential for mesoscale and/or synoptic boundaries in play, I left the high chance/likely pops in place. However, confidence in pops and timing of the highest chance of convection is moderate. In fact, some of the HREF max QPF fields have little to no precip over parts of ENC which gives some pause to Thursday's convective evolution. But, for now that guidance appears to be too low and I leaned away from that solution for now. If morning convection is more widespread or if there is a lot of low-mid level cloudiness around during the day, the coverage of storms could be lower than currently forecast during the afternoon hours. Where convection does occur, the high PWat airmass combined with the potential for storms to train along any west to east boundary in place could support a risk of flooding. It's been a bit drier the past few days, so the flood risk does not immediately look overly significant, but the environment is worth noting. I lowered temperatures a bit Thursday, but didn't go too low given the uncertainty with how widespread convection will be. At minimum, increased cloudiness should keep temps lower than today. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM Wed...Hot, humid, and unsettled weather is expected into Friday as a cold front slowly crosses the area. Then, high pressure moving in from the north will provide a fantastic weekend featuring low humidity, seasonable temps, and mostly sunny skies. A return to near normal temperatures is expected early next week, as well as chances for scattered thunderstorms. Thursday night through Friday...The front will finally cross through the forecast area early Friday, likely getting a boost from the strong upper trough that will move in Eastern NC later Friday. There is expected to be decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms Friday morning associated with the front, with the best chances across the southern half of the forecast area. During the course of the day, convective coverage will likely expand northward in response to surface heating, however the best chances for rain will likely be along the southern coast sea breeze. A conditional threat for severe weather may develop with decent shear and instability expected, however the timing of the front and evolution of convection adds a good deal of uncertainty. Saturday through Tuesday...A substantial upper trough will remain parked over the Eastern US through this period, and will bring relief from the unrelenting heat and humidity that has been with us since late June. Dry conditions are expected with afternoon highs reaching the low to mid 80s, and lows in the low to mid 60s inland, 70s along the coast. By early next week return flow will develop and moisten the atmosphere enough that scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mostly in the afternoon and evenings. There is some indication that weak low pressure could develop over the area, which would provide a more robust rain threat, but given the time scale, will keep a conservative PoP approach. High temps will moderate to near normal, with afternoon readings reaching the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 730 PM Wednesday...Frontal boundary will continue to slowly sag south towards the region tonight and tomorrow. A moistening and destabilizing airmass ahead of this front will lead to isolated to widely scattered TSRA through tonight, potentially followed by a better coverage during the day Thursday. Outside of where TSRA occur, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, although CIGs may begin to lower closer to 4-6 kft this evening and early Thursday morning as a lower cloud deck approaches with the approach of the aforementioned front. For now given expected sparse coverage of activity over the next few hours I left any SHWR or VCTS mention out of the TAFs at EWN/OAJ tonight. I did leave VCTS mention in for tomorrow afternoon late in the TAF period across all TAF sites given the expectation for an increase in convective coverage tomorrow afternoon but further tweaks to the timing and location of TSRA and lower CIGs will be likely in the coming updates. LONG TERM /Thursday night through Sunday/... As of 330 AM Wed...Periods of sub-VFR conditions are possible Thursday and Friday as scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms move through the area associated with a cold front. Dry high pressure builds in this weekend, leading to mostly clear skies and continued VFR conditions. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... As of 130 PM Wednesday...A frontal boundary will slowly sag south towards the region over the next 24 hours. A moistening and destabilizing airmass ahead of this front will lead to isolated to widely scattered TSRA through this evening, potentially followed by a better coverage during the day Thursday. Outside of where TSRA occur, VFR conditions are expected to prevail, although CIGs may begin to lower late tonight-Thursday morning. For now, I went fairly conservative with the TAFs and kept with prevailing VFR conditions and no TSRA mention through 18z/THU. Adjustments to the TAFs will likely be needed with later forecast updates as confidence, in timing and location, evolves. LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... As of 330 AM Wed...Strong SW flow will continue through Thursday, with winds becoming 15-20 kts with some gusts to 25 kts. Brief Small craft conditions are possible, but the marginal nature of this event should preclude the issuance of any advisories. A cold front will cross the waters Friday morning with winds turning to the N at 10-15 kts. Northerly winds then persist through the weekend at around 10-15 kts. Seas will be 3-5 ft through Friday morning, and then subside slightly to 2-4 ft. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RM/RCF SHORT TERM...RM/RCF LONG TERM...CQD/SGK AVIATION...RM/CQD/SGK/RCF MARINE...RM/CQD/SGK
Office: RAH FXUS62 KRAH 110700 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach from the northwest early this morning, then move slowly southeastward through North Carolina this afternoon through early Friday. A secondary cold front will drop through the region late Friday. A cooler and less humid air mass will build in from the north for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 240 AM Thursday... The mid levels over our region feature a light cyclonic W flow and a chaotic mess of meandering MCVs within a broad mid level shear axis (just ahead/SE of the deep longwave trough digging over the Great Lakes) and amid lingering elevated CAPE. As a result, isolated showers and storms continue to develop over the region early this morning. The surface cold front remains well to our NW, from NYC through the Ohio Valley to N AR, but has been making steady progress to the SE since late yesterday. PW currently just under 2" will trend slowly upward as deeper moisture spreads SW to NE ahead of the approaching front today. This leading weak shortwave trough in advance of the main longwave trough will ease to the ESE today, reaching SC and E NC by evening. Models show 20-30 m height falls early today with this leading wave, followed by more robust 30-40 kt falls tonight as the main trough approaches, and this sandwiches a relative lull in height tendency for much of today. But the approach of upper level jetting from our NW and N will induce strengthening upper divergence over the CWA this afternoon into evening, in tandem with peak heating and potential destabilization (although this will likely be tempered by residual convective debris cloudiness over the area today). The strengthening forcing for ascent and mid level flow along with low level mass convergence ahead of the surface front and at least marginal CAPE will support convection moving into the NW CWA early this afternoon before progressing E and ESE through central NC through the evening. The front itself is expected to move into our NW by early this evening then continue to settle slowly to the SE, extending across the S Piedmont to the central Coastal Plain late tonight. After a brief downturn in convection coverage and intensity this evening, models are depicting a rebounding of showers and storms over our SE, a reflection of larger scale lift with a surge of jet-induced upper divergence as the trough axis aloft draws closer, and will bump overnight pops back up to likely in our SE with lower coverage to the NW of the front. With partly to mostly cloudy skies hindering heating and an early arrival of showers and storms, expect less-hot highs today, in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Lows in the mid-upper 60s NW with 70-75 holding in the SE. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday... Friday will bring the start of a respite from the summer heat and humidity. Pops will remain high across our SE early in the day, as the front briefly slows its progress as it awaits a push from a strong vorticity lobe diving ESE through the mean trough base and its accompanying weak secondary surface front. As the mid level trough axis shifts over the region and eventually to our E and SE through the afternoon, the front will exit the CWA, resulting in clearing skies and a low level NW and N flow from late afternoon through the evening and overnight. Cooler air and lower dewpoints will pour in as high pressure begins to build in from the NNW, sending low level thicknesses down to around 25 m below normal by daybreak Sat. Expect highs around 80 to the mid 80s, followed by lows from the upper 50s to mid 60s under mostly clear skies. -GIH && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM Wednesday... Heights aloft remain low with continued northwesterly flow for the weekend. Surface high pressure across the OH Valley on Saturday will build south across the Blue Ridge on Sunday. Continued northerly flow will transport a much drier airmass across the area, with dewpoints in the 50s on Saturday. The high building to our south on Sunday will switch winds to southerly, but only raise dewpoints slightly to near 60 degrees. Highs in the low 80s N to upper 80s S and low dewpoints will make it feel much nicer outside compared to how it has been much of the summer. Highs only increase a few degrees on Sunday. A shortwave digging across the region on Sunday will create a small chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly late in the day/evening. EPS ensemble members are in good agreement on this, however other ensembles are not as confident. Early next week will become more active as a deep low dives south towards the Mid-Atlantic and a few shortwaves round the low and move across central NC. Additionally, a cold front will move southeast across the region on Tuesday, creating additional possibilities of precipitation. Dewpoints will increase back to the mid-60s through the period, with highs remaining just above or just below normal. Ensembles are looking more dry for Wednesday as surface high pressure builds into the north behind the front. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1245 AM Thursday... VFR conditions are likely to dominate central NC terminals over the next 24 hours, with a couple of exceptions. Isolated showers/storms will remain possible over the next few hours across our north, but coverage will be low and the chance for any potential impact at our primary terminals is also low. Otherwise, just scattered to broken mid level clouds are expected through this morning. Another round of scattered to numerous showers and storms is expected this afternoon, starting in the NW (INT/GSO) early this afternoon with activity pushing toward the ESE through the evening. These showers and storms will be out ahead of a cold front that will track SE through the area through tonight. The most likely time window for storms will be 17z-21z at INT/GSO, 18z-01z at RDU, and 20z-06z at RWI/FAY. Gusty and shifting winds along with a period of MVFR-IFR conditions in heavy rain are possible in and near storms. Away from any storms, surface winds will be from the SW or WSW mainly under 10 kts, becoming light and variable after 23z. Looking beyond 06z Fri, showers and isolated storms are likely to linger overnight (after 06z) through Fri morning from RDU to the S and E, with persistent moisture ahead of the slow-moving cold front. Additionally, sub-VFR stratus and patchy fog is possible S and E of RDU 06z-15z late tonight/Fri morning. Rain chances will push to the S and E of central NC by late Fri, and VFR conditions are expected to prevail from late Fri through Sun as high pressure builds in from the north. Another cold front and upper level disturbance may bring sub-VFR conditions and a return of shower/storm chances Mon. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...JJT AVIATION...Hartfield FXUS62 KRAH 110710 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 310 AM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach from the northwest early this morning, then move slowly southeastward through North Carolina this afternoon through early Friday. A secondary cold front will drop through the region late Friday. A cooler and less humid air mass will build in from the north for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 240 AM Thursday... The mid levels over our region feature a light cyclonic W flow and a chaotic mess of meandering MCVs within a broad mid level shear axis (just ahead/SE of the deep longwave trough digging over the Great Lakes) and amid lingering elevated CAPE. As a result, isolated showers and storms continue to develop over the region early this morning. The surface cold front remains well to our NW, from NYC through the Ohio Valley to N AR, but has been making steady progress to the SE since late yesterday. PW currently just under 2" will trend slowly upward as deeper moisture spreads SW to NE ahead of the approaching front today. This leading weak shortwave trough in advance of the main longwave trough will ease to the ESE today, reaching SC and E NC by evening. Models show 20-30 m height falls early today with this leading wave, followed by more robust 30-40 kt falls tonight as the main trough approaches, and this sandwiches a relative lull in height tendency for much of today. But the approach of upper level jetting from our NW and N will induce strengthening upper divergence over the CWA this afternoon into evening, in tandem with peak heating and potential destabilization (although this will likely be tempered by residual convective debris cloudiness over the area today). The strengthening forcing for ascent and mid level flow along with low level mass convergence ahead of the surface front and at least marginal CAPE will support convection moving into the NW CWA early this afternoon before progressing E and ESE through central NC through the evening. The front itself is expected to move into our NW by early this evening then continue to settle slowly to the SE, extending across the S Piedmont to the central Coastal Plain late tonight. After a brief downturn in convection coverage and intensity this evening, models are depicting a rebounding of showers and storms over our SE, a reflection of larger scale lift with a surge of jet-induced upper divergence as the trough axis aloft draws closer, and will bump overnight pops back up to likely in our SE with lower coverage to the NW of the front. With partly to mostly cloudy skies hindering heating and an early arrival of showers and storms, expect less-hot highs today, in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Lows in the mid-upper 60s NW with 70-75 holding in the SE. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Thursday... Friday will bring the start of a respite from the summer heat and humidity. Pops will remain high across our SE early in the day, as the front briefly slows its progress as it awaits a push from a strong vorticity lobe diving ESE through the mean trough base and its accompanying weak secondary surface front. As the mid level trough axis shifts over the region and eventually to our E and SE through the afternoon, the front will exit the CWA, resulting in clearing skies and a low level NW and N flow from late afternoon through the evening and overnight. Cooler air and lower dewpoints will pour in as high pressure begins to build in from the NNW, sending low level thicknesses down to around 25 m below normal by daybreak Sat. Expect highs around 80 to the mid 80s, followed by lows from the upper 50s to mid 60s under mostly clear skies. -GIH && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 310 AM Thursday... High pressure over the eastern United States should bring plenty of sunshine and northerly flow should bring refreshingly dry air into central North Carolina for Saturday. Dewpoints and sky cover should both increase slightly Sunday as a surface low moves from Lake Michigan across the Ohio River Valley. An isolated storm will be possible over the Triad Sunday afternoon and everywhere Sunday evening before conditions briefly dry out overnight. Right now models are still in agreement that another cold front may manage to cross the state Monday, with scattered thunderstorms possible both Monday and Tuesday. Just an isolated thunderstorm will remain by Wednesday as the front moves over the Atlantic Ocean. After temperatures creep up slightly Sunday and Monday, the next cold front should drop highs by a couple degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday. Regardless, the entire forecast period should have slightly below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1245 AM Thursday... VFR conditions are likely to dominate central NC terminals over the next 24 hours, with a couple of exceptions. Isolated showers/storms will remain possible over the next few hours across our north, but coverage will be low and the chance for any potential impact at our primary terminals is also low. Otherwise, just scattered to broken mid level clouds are expected through this morning. Another round of scattered to numerous showers and storms is expected this afternoon, starting in the NW (INT/GSO) early this afternoon with activity pushing toward the ESE through the evening. These showers and storms will be out ahead of a cold front that will track SE through the area through tonight. The most likely time window for storms will be 17z-21z at INT/GSO, 18z-01z at RDU, and 20z-06z at RWI/FAY. Gusty and shifting winds along with a period of MVFR-IFR conditions in heavy rain are possible in and near storms. Away from any storms, surface winds will be from the SW or WSW mainly under 10 kts, becoming light and variable after 23z. Looking beyond 06z Fri, showers and isolated storms are likely to linger overnight (after 06z) through Fri morning from RDU to the S and E, with persistent moisture ahead of the slow-moving cold front. Additionally, sub-VFR stratus and patchy fog is possible S and E of RDU 06z-15z late tonight/Fri morning. Rain chances will push to the S and E of central NC by late Fri, and VFR conditions are expected to prevail from late Fri through Sun as high pressure builds in from the north. Another cold front and upper level disturbance may bring sub-VFR conditions and a return of shower/storm chances Mon. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Green AVIATION...Hartfield