ne discuss
Office: LBF
FXUS63 KLBF 110455
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1155 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
The RAP and NAMnest continue to suggest an isolated thunderstorm
chance across nrn Nebraska this afternoon and this evening. The
focus is a weak frontal boundary. The forcing, instability and shear
are weak like Tuesday.
The short term model blend plus the RAP model was the basis for
highs in the upper 90s to low 100s Thursday. Warmest highs are
expected across the north, just south of the cold front across the
Missouri basin in SD. Temperatures aloft aren't particularly warm,
just 12C-14C at h700mb but the RAP and the NAM model soundings show
mixing heights tapping into warmer air above that layer at 600mb.
Since yesterday's forecast highs were too low by a few degrees, this
forecast would seem warranted.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
An upper level ridge centered over Colorado and Wyoming this
morning will build very slowly east and southeast and be centered
across KS Monday. The GFS and ECM are in very good agreement
shifting the associated subtropical plume of upper level moisture
into Nebraska where is will reside Monday and Tuesday. It is during
this time that chance POPs are in place. WPC suggested rain totals
of up to 1 inch. Locally heavier amounts would seem likely given
the caliber of moisture- PWAT around 1.75 inches in the GFS.
Winds aloft will be weak, 15 to 30 kts at h500-h300mb, supporting
heavy marginally severe thunderstorms.
Until a cold front drops into Nebraska late Sunday, hot temperatures
will continue across swrn Nebraska. The models continue to flirt
with a frontal boundary hanging up across nrn Nebraska and this
could begin as early as Friday evening or perhaps even as early as
late Friday afternoon. The temperature forecast across the south is
more certain with south winds continuing through Sunday.
The blended forecast suggests highs in the 90s to around 100 through
Sunday across the south. Highs across the north peak Friday and then
cool about 5 degrees. This area will be in easterlies Saturday and
Sunday which should limit vertical mixing producing cooler highs.
The potential for record highs is uncertain. Temperatures aloft at
h700 are in the low to mid teens Celsius but highs will be
dictated by vertical mixing, potentially to 600mb or higher which
would produce highs warmer than predicted- possibly records. It
will be interesting to see what happens.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
For both terminals, expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.
Some high cloudiness may drift into the area with few to scattered
clouds around 25000 FT AGL. Winds will be from the southeast or
south at under 10 KTS overnight, increasing to 10 to 20 KTS
Thursday afternoon.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Buttler
Office: OAX
FXUS63 KOAX 110433
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1133 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
The forecast has seen little change looking out through the coming
week. The primary interest lies in temperatures through the
weekend as heat indices will approach 100...and could see some
upswing toward 105. However, this is the point where recent very
dry conditions will likely work to limit heat indices a bit as
evapotranspiration from plants is lower than typical and
dewpoints are more likely to hold a bit lower than they otherwise
might this time of year. That said, air temperatures could trend a
bit warmer in this scenario as well.
Models are trending slightly cooler than previous runs with the
post frontal airmass into next week with more seasonal conditions
in store. Also continue to see rain chances by early next week
with a decent model ensemble signal for precipitation under
northwest flow with short wave troughing running across the
region. Some locations may even see meaningful rain, but the devil
will lie in the details there in terms of any stationary forcing
mechanisms developing. Regardless, with several chances for at
least some precip, there is a good likelihood for most of the area
to see at least one or two rounds...with the ultimate question
being how much.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
VFR criteria to prevail for the TAF period. There is a possibility
for patchy fog particularly in southwest Iowa and along the
Missouri River where temperatures overnight are expected to drop
below the cross-over temperature (afternoon peak dew point). Those
temperatures combined with light winds and clear skies are usually
favorable conditions for fog development. There have been some
brief reductions to visibility this evening, but all locations are
currently reading at 10SM.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Fajman
Office: GID
FXUS63 KGID 110506
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1206 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2022
No major changes to the forecast as the main concerns revolve
around very minor precipitation chances and temperatures in the
short term, then a potential cool down and better rain chances
early next week.
Summary: Outside of a few degree bump in temps, the overall
pattern and sensible weather across the region remains largely
unchanged from 24 hrs ago. Upper ridging remains entrenched along
the spine of the Rockies, centered over N CO. The main story in
the short term will be the upper ridge expanding/moving E onto the
High Plains later this week and over the weekend, bringing warmer
temperatures in the mid 90s to low 100s. A series of shortwaves
within increasingly amplified NW flow will fend off the ridge at
least somewhat late this weekend and into early next week as they
carve out a deep trough over the Great Lakes and NE CONUS. This
should result in cooler temperatures and better/more frequent chcs
for rain. Until then, dry and seasonably warm will be the rule.
Forecast Details: Similar to yesterday, a couple very weak waves
rounding the ridge and into the area on weak Nrly upper flow in
combination with a very weak sfc boundary over the Sandhills may
try to spark off some isolated showers/storms late this aftn and
into the eve. Once again, expect the primary focus to remain N/NW
of the GID CWA (roughly along AIA to TIF to ONL line where current
CU is developing), but did add a slgt chc (20 percent) PoP to
Valley and Greeley Cos to cover the minor potential for one or two
cells to sneak into the area. Overall, though, expect a quiet
evening/overnight, and likely the next few days for that matter,
as upper ridging dominates over the central CONUS. If anything,
the ridge will gain even more control over the area as it shifts E
slightly from Central Rockies into Central High Plains later this
week and over the weekend. This will allow the thermal ridge to
build/shift E into the area, as well, and lead to seasonably warm
highs in the mid to upper 90s, and likely even some low 100s in
typically warmer areas of the S/SW zones. This will be a solid
5-10 deg warmer than normal, but still not all that unusual for
mid August. Expect the typical steamy conditions as well given
mature crops and relatively lgt Srly flow, but latest indications
continue to suggest peak heat indices will remain in check below
advisory criteria levels of around 105F...and we're obviously well
into summer and used to said steamy conditions by now.
Models continue to show a general breakdown of the ridge over the
Central Plains, with time, late this weekend and into early next
week as several shortwaves move through the area in increasingly
fast and amplified NW flow. Timing and exact track of
disturbances and accompanying sfc features are obviously low
confidence this far out, but general pattern recognition would
suggest several chcs for scat shwrs/storms, esp. Mon into Wed, so
don't have any problems with the persistent 20-30 PoPs, with even
some periods of slightly higher 40 PoPs mixed in. Lower heights,
cooler low-mid level temps, and potential for cld cover and shwrs
all point to cooler conditions with highs falling back into the
80s, and some lows in the 50s to low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu Aug 11 2022
High pressure aloft keeping a firm hold on the area and
thus VFR conditions are expected through forecast period.
South winds may approach 12kts for a few hours this afternoon
but settle back to under 10kts again by evening.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
