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Office: PHI

FXUS61 KPHI 111405

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1005 AM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022

A stationary front will remain in place today across the
Delmarva while a wave of low pressure rides along it out to sea.
A stronger cold front will then cross our region tonight into
Friday. High pressure will build across the region for Saturday
before weakening Sunday. Another storm system will arrive early
next week.


Only significant change to the forecast for the mid-morning
update was to hold onto some isolated pops for a few more hours
mainly over the Delmarva where a couple showers are hanging
back. Otherwise, inherited forecast is on track.

...4AM discussion...
The surface cold front which stalled across the southern zones
this afternoon has since retreated north as a warm front as a
700/ 500 MB shortwave ripples east along the boundary. In
response to the shortwave, convection has been tracking east
along the PA/ MD border this morning and is currently
approaching the I-95 corridor. As the shortwave exits east this
morning, a weak cold front will slip off the DE and NJ coast
with dewpoints falling into the lower 60s. The primary cold
front will be held back as the longwave trough axis remains
centered over the Ohio River Valley. Later this afternoon a
seabreeze will start to push inland around 10 to 20 miles and
quickly come to a halt. Some high res guidance is indicating
that an isolated shower and thunderstorm will be possible along
the sea breeze, but PWATs do fall off to around 1.10” with a
significant dry slot moving overhead as well. Given the above,
dry air entrainment will likely keep most updrafts in check, but
an isolated shower and thunderstorm can’t be ruled out
(especially near the coast). Temperatures today will likely
again be warm, with highs approaching or just touching the 90
degree mark.

This evening, the primary cold front will approach the area
from the northwest as the longwave trough axis progresses east.
The front will mostly be a dry frontal passage with dewpoints
falling into the upper 50s for most of the area by Friday


The core of the DCVA will translate overhead Friday with skies
beginning to slowly clear during the day and temperatures much
cooler with lower humidity values. Expect high temperatures in
the low 80s Friday with no precipitation expected. On Saturday,
the shortwave embedded in the longwave trough axis will wrap up
into a closed low across New England allowing for the Delaware
River Valley to fall into the ageostrophic convergent side of
the trough axis. Expect mostly clear skies with highs in the
lower 80s and relative humidity values in the lower 30% range.

On Sunday, the surface high pressure that was overhead on
Saturday will begin to lose cohesion as the ageostrophic
convergence collapses due to an impinging shortwave diving
southeast out of the Great Lakes Region. Global models are
indicating precipitation moving into the region Sunday
afternoon, but upon further investigation of forecast soundings
am not so sure. Complete saturation above 600 MB is forecast,
but in the low levels dew point depressions are forecast to be
large. Due to this, I have kept most of the region dry through
the day Sunday. Expect high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.


The long term period looks to be defined by a significant
pattern change for next week. Ensemble and deterministic
guidance continues to hint at a longwave trough setting up over
the Eastern US, which would bring below average temperatures and
the potential for some much needed rain.

Getting into the day-by-day portion of the discussion, a
shortwave will swing through late Sunday night/early Monday
morning. At the surface, an area of low pressure looks to
develop over the Ohio River Valley, inching toward our area
getting into Monday. This will result in a rather wet and
unsettled Monday. Have gone Likely PoPs for most of the region
as some needed rain looks to move through Monday afternoon and
evening. Severe threat looks rather limited, though we will have
to monitor the potential hydro threat. Confidence is quite high
that temperatures will be below normal, with highs around 80
for Delmarva, Philadelphia, and the NJ Coastal Plain. Looking at
upper 70s north and west of Philadelphia, with temperatures in
the Poconos potentially not getting out of the 60s.

Deterministic guidance remains pretty consistent in a strong
shortwave moving in from the north, with a closed low eventually
forming at 500 mb late Monday/early Tuesday. Still some
uncertainty in how far south the closed low gets, but there is
increasing confidence on another mild and unsettled day on
Tuesday. Have high end Chc and low end Likely PoPs for Tuesday
as the surface low could slide through the southern portion of
our CWA. With the meandering 500 mb low remaining close by, the
surface low is expected to track slowly northeastward away from
the NJ coast, likely bringing another wet and mild day on
Wednesday. With the rather slow movement of the surface low,
there could be a prolonged period of onshore flow, which could
result in some coastal flooding. Confidence is low in any
specific impacts at this time, but will become more clear as we
get closer. Both Tuesday and Wednesday will feature temperatures
in the mid to upper 70s, something not seen in quite some time
around here. Overall, early next week will feature some good
rain chances to help the region with the ongoing drought


The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today... VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the
day. Northwesterly winds around 5-10 kts. An isolated shower is
possible. High confidence in prevailing VFR conditions.

Tonight...VFR. Northerly winds around 5-10 kts. High


Friday through Saturday...VFR. Northerly winds 5-10 kts. Some
gusts up to 20 kts possible on Friday. High confidence.

Sunday…VFR. Southwest winds 5-10 kts. High confidence.

Monday...Prevailing VFR, but scattered showers and
thunderstorms may introduce some brief restrictions. Southerly
winds 5-10 kts. Moderate confidence.


No marine headlines anticipated through tonight. Westerly winds
5-10 kts this morning will shift south to southwesterly this
afternoon. Winds will shift to the north overnight around 15 kts
with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas around 2 feet.

A cluster of heavy showers and thunderstorms will move off of
the New Jersey coast through mid-morning. Otherwise, fair
weather is expected with an isolated shower or thunderstorm
possible through tonight.


Friday through Saturday...No marine headlines anticipated.
North to northeasterly winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts.
Seas 2-3 feet. Fair weather.

Sunday through Monday...No marine headlines anticipated. Winds
will settle out of the south around 10-15 kts. Seas 2-3 feet.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday.

Rip Currents...

Winds will start offshore in the morning then shift onshore into
the afternoon around 10 mph. Breaking waves of 1-2 feet with a
medium south to southwest swell will result in a LOW risk of rip

A northerly wind around 15-20 mph is expected on Friday. This
combined with a building northerly swell and breakers of 2-3 feet
will result in a LOW risk of rip currents.


The full moon occurs this evening. The evening high tides today
and Friday will be particularly high even without any contribution
from the wind.

While some localized tidal flooding occurred last evening in
the coastal counties of New Jersey and Delaware, and along
Delaware Bay, the minor tidal flooding may become more
widespread both this evening and Friday evening. The latest
forecast guidance suggests that we may need advisories for parts
of our region at those times.




Near Term...Haines/RCM
Short Term...Haines
Long Term...Hoeflich
Tides/Coastal Flooding...WFO PHI

Office: OKX FXUS61 KOKX 111453 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1053 AM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front remains in the vicinity of Long Island while weak low pressure develops along it. A cold front then passes tonight with high pressure following for Friday. Surface high pressure continues to builds into the area for this weekend. An upper level trough will bring unsettled weather to the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Adjusted POPs for rain showers, cloud coverage, with slight adjustments to temperatures and dewpoints to better match with observed trends. The forecast overall is on track. Rain showers are across the Twin Forks of Long Island as well as Southeast Connecticut. No thunderstorms are expected. Dry conditions have returned to the west for the rest of the forecast region. The rain showers are expected to be east of the region by early this afternoon. As the low heads off to the northeast, precipitation chances decrease from west to east late this morning into this afternoon. By this evening, the main cold front approaches from the northwest. With cloud cover around for much of the day, seasonable highs in the mid to upper 80s are forecast for the area. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Longwave trough axis moves though by early Friday ushering in a cooler and drier airmass as surface high pressure builds in. A mostly dry day expected on Friday, under northwest flow. There is a slight chance of an afternoon shower as the upper system moves through, but dry mid and low levels should keep coverage quite isolated. Highs in the low to mid 80s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s will make it feel much more comfortable than in recent days. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... No significant changes made to the long term with this update and stuck fairly close to the NBM. The period starts off with surface high pressure building into the area. Aloft, An upper level trough and low pressure system remains over the region. The upper level low closes off Friday night as the low and trough start to move out of the region during the day Saturday and Saturday night. This will result in a significant air mass change as dew points fall into the 50s through the weekend. Temperatures will remain right around normal for this time of year, lower and middle 80s. Cloud cover and PoPs were bumped up just a bit for the eastern portions of Suffolk county on LI and New London county in CT early next week. Both the 12z NAM and GFS were showing signs for the potential showers in these area as the trough amplifies as it exits the region. Otherwise, dry weather is expected across the CWA Friday through weekend. Another trough axis works its way into the eastern half of the US Sunday night through the first half of next week. Model guidance continues to hint at shortwave energy moving within the trough. As typical this far out, there are differences in strength and timing for each of these shortwaves. Stuck fairly close to the NBM PoPs during this period. Generally looking a chance POPs through the first half of next week, although as we get closer, hopefully we can get a better handling for when any higher POPs can be expected. The good thing, it appears like there is a decent chance of the local area getting some much needed rain. Temperatures overall should remain close to seasonable levels through the period. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A weak cold front swings through late tonight into early Friday morning. High pressure builds from the west Friday. VFR this afternoon. Winds generally light and variable early this afternoon with winds becoming northerly behind a wave of low pressure. Late day sea breezes are possible at KJFK, KLGA, and KISP, and along the Connecticut coast. North winds tonight generally 5 to 10 kt. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... There is uncertainty with the development of a sea breeze with respect to timing and how far north it can get. The sea breeze may only move through KJFK. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Friday...Slight chance of -shra early mainly east of city terminals, otherwise VFR with N wind around 10 kt. .Sat-Sun...VFR. .Mon...Chance of MVFR and -shra with iso tstm. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/ && .MARINE... A relatively weak pressure gradient will maintain conditions below SCA criteria into early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through Tuesday of next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a moderate rip current risk today and Friday at ocean beaches. The risk is due to lingering 1 to 2 ft S and SE swell, both with a large daily astronomical tidal range. High astronomical tides the next few days with approach of a full moon on Thursday. Widespread minor flooding (up to 1 1/2 ft inundation AGL) of vulnerable coastal/shoreline locales expected for Southern Nassau and Queens and coastal Westchester and Fairfield counties with tonight's high tides. Localized minor coastal flooding for NY/NJ harbor. Forecast maintained a lean towards Steven NYHOPS which has been verifying better over the last couple of high tide cycles. Additional headlines may be needed for Friday and Saturday as astronomical tides remain high. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Friday for CTZ009. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Friday for NYZ071. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NYZ074-075-178-179. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NJZ006-106-108. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DBR NEAR TERM...DBR/JM SHORT TERM...DBR/NV LONG TERM...BC/DBR AVIATION...IRD MARINE...DBR HYDROLOGY...DBR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...