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Office: ABQ

FXUS65 KABQ 110906
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
306 AM MDT Thu Aug 11 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance will increase the potential for heavy rain south
of I-40 today, with storms already developing early this morning.
Flash flooding is possible, especially over the Bear Trap, Black and
McBride burn scars. Precipitation chances will trend downward Friday
through the weekend for central and eastern New Mexico, but the west
will remain active. With less rain and cloud cover, temperatures will
trend upward just a bit. Storm chances will ramp back up next week
for all of northern and central New Mexico.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
The center of a strong area of high pressure aloft remains over
north central Colorado early this morning. It will stay there
today, then gradually shift southeast to the Colorado and Kansas
border Friday. A weak, but persistent disturbance aloft will move
from south central to southwest NM today, focusing convection in
these areas. We have issued a Flash Flood Watch for the southern
burn scars: Bear Trap, Black and McBride, from noon today to
midnight tonight. Heavy rain will likely produce local flash
flooding, including debris flows in and near the above mentioned
burn scars. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into tonight
across western and southern NM. The northeast will be rain free
today and tonight as subsidence from the upper high impacts this
area, along with an unfavorable northeast to southwest flow aloft.
Friday will be active over the west and central areas, while the
east is dry. High temperatures today and Friday will generally be a
little below normal.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
Storms that develop Friday afternoon should diminish and/or shift
into AZ Friday evening, with few storms persisting overnight.

The upper high will be centered over southeast Colorado on Saturday.
Persistent mid level dry air over central and especially eastern NM
will continue to limit convection in those areas. Western NM will
remain active with the monsoon plume over AZ and western NM. On
Sunday, the upper high shifts southeastward slightly, over Oklahoma,
and weakens some as well. This slight shift will allow the plume to
begin to inch back eastward, plus low level southerly flow will
advect moisture back into the area as well. Nonetheless, still mainly
concerned about heavy rains across western NM this weekend, with the
Bear Trap and Black burn scars most susceptible to flash flooding.

Moisture will continue to trend up Monday and Tuesday. Additionally,
a backdoor cold front will slide into the northeeastern plains on
Tuesday and Tuesday night before making more southward progress on
Wednesday. This front will quickly ramp up precipitation potential,
and heavy rain potential, across northeast and eastern NM. An
easterly wave will also be worth watching during this time period
though attm, most of the impacts from that appear to remain south of
the ABQ CWA. All-in-all, while the weekend will be relatively quiet
(except for western NM), rain chances will ramp back up area wide
next week. Meanwhile, temperatures trend upward this weekend with
less precip and cloud cover, but will plateau or trend downward
slightly thereafter.

CHJ/34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns the next seven days. High pressure will be
centered in Colorado through Friday, then will slowly move east this
weekend, setting up the classic monsoon pattern, with rich moisture
arriving from Mexico. Western and central areas will be active with
widespread showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain. Flash
flooding will be a big concern, especially on recent burn scars. On
the other hand, the east will have the least amount of rain, as the
flow aloft will be east to west initially, then gradually turn to a
south to north direction, keeping the dry air coming in from around
the upper high. A front may increase chances across the east mid
week.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours aside from a few
storms producing heavy enough rain for MVFR cigs and vsbys. Currently,
only a few showers are hanging on in the east central plains. A
couple of computer models suggest an increase in storm activity
overnight, but only isolated convection in the east central plains,
Chaves County and south central mountains. Thunderstorms will
develop again over the high terrain hours by the 18Z hour Thursday,
expanding in coverage thereafter. However, thunderstorm coverage
starts to decrease across northern NM as drier air begins to work its
way into the area. Despite this, all thunderstorm hazards remain
possible with any thunderstorm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  90  64  90  64 /  20  20  10  20
Dulce...........................  85  53  86  55 /  20  30  30  20
Cuba............................  81  56  83  57 /  40  30  20  20
Gallup..........................  83  56  84  56 /  60  40  60  30
El Morro........................  77  54  78  53 /  70  40  50  30
Grants..........................  80  54  82  54 /  70  40  40  20
Quemado.........................  78  55  78  55 /  90  60  70  40
Magdalena.......................  78  59  78  58 /  70  50  40  20
Datil...........................  75  54  74  53 /  80  50  60  30
Reserve.........................  83  56  82  57 /  90  60  80  40
Glenwood........................  87  63  86  62 /  80  60  80  50
Chama...........................  78  51  79  50 /  30  30  30  20
Los Alamos......................  78  58  80  60 /  40  20  30  10
Pecos...........................  78  56  81  57 /  40  20  20  10
Cerro/Questa....................  80  42  81  49 /  20  10  30  10
Red River.......................  75  45  76  44 /  20  10  30  10
Angel Fire......................  74  41  76  41 /  30  10  20  10
Taos............................  82  52  83  52 /  20  10  20  10
Mora............................  76  50  78  53 /  30  10  20  10
Espanola........................  86  60  88  60 /  30  20  20  10
Santa Fe........................  79  59  81  59 /  40  20  30  10
Santa Fe Airport................  82  57  85  58 /  40  20  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  84  64  86  65 /  40  30  20  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  86  64  89  66 /  40  30  20  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  88  64  90  64 /  40  30  20  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  86  64  89  66 /  40  30  20  10
Belen...........................  88  62  90  64 /  40  30  20  10
Bernalillo......................  89  63  91  64 /  40  20  20  10
Bosque Farms....................  87  62  89  62 /  40  30  20  10
Corrales........................  88  64  91  65 /  40  30  20  10
Los Lunas.......................  87  63  89  64 /  40  30  20  10
Placitas........................  84  62  86  62 /  40  20  20  10
Rio Rancho......................  87  64  89  66 /  40  30  20  10
Socorro.........................  88  64  89  65 /  60  40  30  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  76  58  79  59 /  50  20  20  10
Tijeras.........................  80  59  83  61 /  50  30  20  10
Edgewood........................  80  54  83  57 /  50  20  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  80  53  84  53 /  40  20  20  10
Clines Corners..................  77  54  81  56 /  40  20  20  10
Mountainair.....................  78  55  81  57 /  60  30  20  10
Gran Quivira....................  78  56  81  58 /  60  30  30  10
Carrizozo.......................  82  62  84  64 /  70  30  40  10
Ruidoso.........................  73  54  76  54 /  90  40  50  10
Capulin.........................  80  54  83  56 /  10   5   0   0
Raton...........................  84  54  86  55 /  10  10   5   5
Springer........................  85  56  87  56 /  10  10  10   5
Las Vegas.......................  78  54  82  54 /  30  10  20  10
Clayton.........................  87  61  89  61 /  10   0   0   0
Roy.............................  82  59  84  59 /  10  10   0   0
Conchas.........................  90  65  92  64 /  10  10   5   0
Santa Rosa......................  85  62  88  60 /  20  10   5   5
Tucumcari.......................  92  67  94  66 /  10   5   0   0
Clovis..........................  88  64  91  64 /  20  10   5   0
Portales........................  90  65  92  64 /  20  10   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  89  66  91  66 /  20  10   5   0
Roswell.........................  92  69  94  68 /  40  30  10   0
Picacho.........................  84  62  86  63 /  70  30  30   5
Elk.............................  81  58  83  58 /  80  40  40  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for the
following zones... NMZ208-226-241.

&&

$$