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Office: ALY

FXUS61 KALY 132331
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
731 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
After a seasonably cool afternoon after under partly sunny
skies, high pressure moves overhead resulting in another clear
and cool night. Morning sun tomorrow mixes with increasing late
day clouds as an upper level disturbance begins to develops.
While chances for scattered showers increases through the week,
uncertainty remains regarding exact placement and overall
coverage.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...Satellite imagery showing clouds starting to dissipate
with loss of daytime heating. This trend will continue this
evening, with mainly clear skies expected overnight. Just made
some minor adjustments based on current obs and trends.

.PREVIOUS[0400]...High pressure centered in the Ohio Valley
continues to build eastward into the Northeast today giving us a
dry and very comfortable day. Northerly winds on the east side
of the incoming high has maintained cool and dry air advection
from Canada into the Northeast. 12 UTC ALY sounding shows PWATs
only at 0.63" which gives insight into how dry the new air mass
is. With cooler air overhead, many met their respective
convective temperature by late morning and the latest GOES16
satellite data shows a good amount of diurnally driven cumulus
clouds in place, especially from the Hudson River into western
New England as northerly flow funnels down the Champlain and
Hudson Valley. There is actually more sun in the southern
Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley which is displaced from
the best cold air advection. Temperatures have been a slower to
warm than previous anticipated due to the cloud coverage so
adjusted high temperatures downwards a few degrees compared to
the previous forecast. Overall, still expecting highs only in
the mid to upper 70s for the hill towns and Hudson/Mohawk valley
which is about 5 or so degrees below normal by mid-August
standards. With dew points in the 50s, if feels even cooler. The
higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens
will be the coolest with highs only near or just slightly over
70.

Diurnally driven clouds clear out as we near sunset with mainly
clear skies tonight as high pressure moves overhead. Near ideal
radiational cooling will set the stage for yet another cool
night. We leaned on the cooler side of guidance based on
temperatures this morning since increased subsidence should
reduce chances for stratus clouds to develop. However, patchy
fog may develop in sheltered valley areas towards or shortly
after 09 UTC through sunrise as temperatures approach their
respective dew points. Overall, morning lows should fall into
the mid to upper 40s in the higher terrain with upper 40s and
low 50s in the hill towns and valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Any early valley fog dissipates early Sunday morning as daytime
heating increases boundary layer mixing. High pressure will be
overhead giving us another pleasant and seasonable day with
comfortable dew points/humidity levels. Morning sun should mix
with afternoon cumulus clouds as we reach our convective
temperature but with with weak ridging aloft and less cold air
advection, cumulus clouds should not be as prevalent as today.
Otherwise, boundary layer mixing should reach up to 850hPa
during the afternoon per forecast soundings and with westerly
winds aloft bringing in a slightly warmer air mass, expecting
high temperatures to rise a few degrees higher than today into
the upper 70s to low 80s in valley areas with mid to upper 70s
elsewhere.

A trough in the Ohio Valley will gradual amplify tomorrow
resulting in westerly winds shifting southwest in response.
This looks to increase moisture advection and result in some
increase mid and high levels clouds by mid to late afternoon,
especially south and west of Albany. Despite increase clouds,
guidance has backed off on showers and there is good consensus
for a dry Sunday between the deterministic and ensembles
guidance.

Clouds increase Sunday night giving us a milder night
with lows only in the mid to upper 50s with low 60s in the
valley. Guidance maintains a dry forecast overnight but chances
gradually increase on Monday as the upper level low slowly
becomes better organized. Any showers look isolated to scattered
in coverage due to weak forcing but southwest flow aloft should
keep skies partly to mostly cloudy. With the upper level still
centered to our south and west over Western PA and high pressure
shifting into northern New England, northeast surface winds
should keep temperatures seasonably cool once again. Highs on
Monday once again should barely each 80 for the valley with mid
to upper 70s in the hill towns and higher terrain.

We gradually increases POPs from slight chance Monday morning to
chance in the afternoon with the higher probabilities south and
west of the Capital District where there should be stronger
forcing. Overall instability is limited but continued with
slight chance thunder in the Mohawk Valley and northern
Catskills where a warm air mass looks to be in place.

Monday night stays cloudy and therefore milder with lows only
in the upper 50s to low 60s. With the loss of diurnal heating,
we reduced POPs to slight chance and mainly for areas south and
west of Albany.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Long term period will begin with a large cutoff upper low overhead
and a coastal low moving near the US East coast. This will lead to
chances for showers and slightly below normal temperatures for the
middle of next week. As these features move off to the northeast
towards the end of the week, warmer and drier weather is expected.
Please see below for more details...

Long term period begins Tuesday with upper troughing closing off
aloft and becoming cutoff from the large-scale flow. This cutoff low
is expected to remain overhead through the day Tuesday and
Wednesday, and possibly linger into Thursday. Guidance shows a
surface low developing off the coast of the Carolinas in the left
exit region of an upper-level jet Tuesday evening as an upper-level
shortwave/lobe of vorticity rotates around the periphery of the
upper low. There are considerable differences regarding the
amplitude and timing of this feature, which leads to forecast
uncertainty in the eventual track of this potential coastal storm
next week.

Over the past few days, the trend has been for a storm track further
out to sea which would result in drier weather locally. Most
ensemble members still support this solution, although there are a
few outliers (including the deterministic 6 and 12z GFS as well as
the 12z Euro) that suggest a storm track further west Tuesday night
and Wednesday. A storm track further west would result in more rain
for our area, with the best chance for a much-needed soaking rain
over western New England. While the drier solution still appears the
most likely, the wetter solution cannot be written off yet. Even if
the potential coastal storm remains out to sea, scattered diurnally-
driven showers remain possible across the local area thanks to the
cold pool aloft associated with the upper low that will be located
directly overhead. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be
in the 60s (high elevations) to 70s (valleys) thanks to abundant
cloud cover and cutoff low aloft, with easterly flow off the
Atlantic Ocean also expected on Tuesday. Overnight lows will be
mainly in the upper 50s both nights.

Thursday and Friday...The cutoff upper low and associated surface
cyclone both move off to the northeast of the area. While there
could still be a shower or two Thursday afternoon if the upper low
is slower to depart, height rises aloft and high pressure building
in from the west should generally result in tranquil weather with
warmer temperatures and more sun for the end of the week. Heading
into early next weekend, the general patter will still feature
ridging over the western half of the country and large-scale
troughing further east. As this trough slowly moves eastward next
weekend or early next week, we may see additional chances for some
much needed rainfall. With westerly flow and more sun, highs should
be in the 70s to low 80s Thursday and may climb into the mid to
upper 80s Friday and Saturday. Overnight lows will generally be in
the 50s for the higher elevations and upper 50s to low 60s for
valley areas each night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...VFR conditions prevailing at the TAF sites
this evening. As diurnal clouds dissipate, there may be some
fog development at typical spots KGFL/KPSF late tonight.
Anomalously dry air mass in place should prevent widespread IFR
conditions, but will mention TEMPO for MVFR vsby at these sites
from around 08Z-11Z. Brief periods of IFR are possible, but
expected duration too short to mention in TAFs at this time.

VFR conditions will prevail on Sunday, with just a few fair
weather cumulus clouds and gradually increasing high level
cirrus clouds.

Winds will be light and variable tonight through Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
After a seasonably cool afternoon after under partly sunny
skies, high pressure moves overhead resulting in another clear
and cool night. Morning sun tomorrow mixes with increasing late
day clouds as an upper level disturbance begins to develops.
While chances for scattered showers increases through the week,
uncertainty remains regarding exact placement and overall
coverage.

RH values recover tonight to 80 to 100 percent tonight with
near calm winds and clear skies supporting radiational cooling.
RH values remain dry tomorrow with RH values dropping to 30 to
40 percent range in the afternoon with light and variable winds
under 5 mph.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...JPV/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...Speciale



Office: OKX FXUS61 KOKX 140011 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 811 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues to build in from the west tonight, before sliding offshore on Sunday. A series of waves of low pressure move along a frontal boundary to the south Monday through Tuesday night. A deeper low may track east of the area Wednesday. High pressure returns for Thursday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Updated for current conditions and trends through tonight. Lowered cloud cover through tonight to clear/mostly clear. Dry, pleasant conditions continue through tonight with high pressure in control. Aloft, a mid-to-upper trough overhead remains in place over the Northeast. Anomalously cold air embedded within the trough has helped to instigate fairly widespread strato-cu this afternoon. This should erode this evening with loss of daytime heating, setting up mostly clear skies tonight. Weak winds lighten even further as high pressure continues to build in from the Midwest, becoming near calm overnight. A sign of the times, forecast lows tonight are some of the coolest we've seen since the first week of July. In fact, light winds and clear skies should set up ideal radiational cooling conditions, with parts of the interior and Pine Barrens of Long Island potentially touching the upper 40s by daybreak. Maintained a blend of MAV/MET for temperatures to better account for this potential. With continued lower humidity, it'll be another great night to keep the windows open. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Another winner of a day is expected Sunday with low humidity, sunshine, and temperatures near average. Troughing remains over the Northeast, and surface high pressure passes overhead during the day as it tracks east. Winds veer S/SE in the afternoon as the high slides offshore. Sea breezes are expected once again, which may add to create a bit stronger flow along coastal locations by late afternoon. Temperatures likely climb several degrees higher than on Saturday, with widespread low-to-mid 80s expected in the afternoon, or about typical for mid-August. Humidity levels will continue to remain low, and dew points should mix out into the 50s during the day, with 40s possible inland. Some high clouds develop late in the day ahead of the next shortwave in the flow approaching from the west. Cloud cover continues to build Sunday night as moisture aloft advects into the region. Despite this, conditions are expected to remain dry through the night. Lows fall into the upper 50s and 60s. Stuck fairly close to the NBM guidance for this update. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A broad upper trough, and at times, closed low, remains over the northeast through next week, and weakens into the upcoming weekend. High pressure weakens Monday as a series of low begin to track south of the area into the middle of the week. Monday's low currently tracks well to the south, with a slight chance of precipitation. Tuesday's tracks a little farther to the north, although there is some uncertainty as to the track. There is now better agreement with a deeper low passing south and east of the region Wednesday, possibly retrograding, as the upper trough closes off and becomes negative. Again, there is uncertainty as to how far west the low will track, and for now have followed the trend in the NBM guidance and increase probabilities from the west to west Tuesday night into Wednesday. With a cool easterly flow developing Monday and continuing into Tuesday night, then becoming more northerly Wednesday into Thursday, temperatures will likely be slightly below seasonal normals. The NBM guidance has trended cooler, with little spread in the deterministic and 25th percentile, and used a blend. With dry weather, high pressure, and a west southwest flow, temperatures return to seasonal normals to above normal Friday and Saturday, and used the NBM. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure will build across the area tonight and then move offshore on Sunday. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will become light near 5 kts or less and variable direction tonight. Winds will become S-SW Sunday with sea breeze enhancement for mid to late afternoon. Winds speeds Sunday will be generally near 5-10 kts with some relatively higher winds that get more into the 10-15 kt range for some coastal terminals with sea breeze enhancement for late afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Initial ESE-SE sea breezes for JFK and possibly EWR near 5-7 kts this evening expected to weaken between 01 and 02Z Sunday. Occasional gusts up to 15-20 kt possible for NYC terminals Sunday afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sun night...VFR. Winds diminish. .Mon...Chance of MVFR with possible showers. .Tue-Wed...Chance of IFR or lower in rain. NE winds Tue 10-15G20KT day into early eve. .Thu...Becoming mainly VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... No changes to winds and seas at this time. High pressure over area will result in a relatively weak pressure gradient across the forecast waters. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through Sunday night. An east to northeast flow increases Monday into Tuesday as waves of low pressure track south of the ocean waters. By Tuesday afternoon gusts on the ocean waters will be near SCA levels, especially east of Moriches Inlet. Also, ocean seas will be building to SCA levels across the eastern zone, and possibly into east of Fire Island Inlet. A deeper low may track east of the forecast waters Wednesday with SCA conditions continuing, as winds shift to the north and northwest. High pressure returns for Thursday, and conditions will be subsiding on the ocean waters Wednesday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions are expected through this weekend. Minimum relative humidity will range between 30 and 40 percent on Sunday. Winds will be a limiting factor however, as wind gusts are expected to remain less than 20 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through next Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A low rip current risk at the ocean beaches continues this evening through Monday with generally an easterly swell less than 2 feet. High astronomical tides will continue for the next couple of days. One more round of widespread minor flooding (up to 1 ft inundation AGL) of vulnerable coastal/shoreline locales expected for the south shore bay communities of Nassau and Queens tonight, with localized minor possible for NY/NJ harbor and coastal Westchester and Fairfield counties. Water levels expected to fall below minor for most of the areas Sunday night, but localized minor still possible for the south shore bay communities of Nassau and Queens. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DR/MET NEAR TERM...DR/MET SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...JM MARINE...DR/MET FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...DR/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Office: BUF FXUS61 KBUF 132333 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 733 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will drift east across the region providing fair and dry weather through most of the weekend. A weak upper level low will then meander near the area Sunday night through much of next week, bringing a chance of a few scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms at times. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will drift east to eastern NY and New England by late tonight. An approaching weak mid level trough will bring a more notable increase in mid/high clouds across Western NY overnight, but any rain associated with this feature and a surface low over the midwest will remain well west of our region through late tonight. Lows will drop back into the 50s in most areas, with 40s east of Lake Ontario where skies remain more clear. Some patchy river valley fog is possible across the Southern Tier, depending on how much cloud cover builds in. This weak mid level trough will gradually build across the region Sunday and Sunday night. Initially the main impact will just be an increase in cloud cover, but by Sunday afternoon a few showers will be possible across the Western Southern Tier. The 12Z NAM is notably more aggressive with QPF than most other guidance for Sunday night, especially with a weak flow aloft. With the trough there's a chance for showers, but will lean towards most other mesoscale and other guidance which shows the best chances across the Western Southern Tier. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the lower 70s to around 80, with generally warmer conditions to the east where there will be less cloud cover in place. Fairly extensive cloud cover will limit radiational cooling Sunday night with lows in the mid 50s to around 60. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... An upper level trough will close over our region this period with numerous shortwave troughs and embedded vort maxes riding through to produce showers at times. Greatest chances will be during the afternoon hours of both Monday and Tuesday when some modest daytime instability under the steepening mid level lapse rates yield scattered convection. As temperatures at 850 hPa drop to +9 to +11C over the very warm lake waters some lake effect rain showers will become possible Monday Night and Tuesday Night. This activity on north to northeast will be favored during the overnight and into the morning hours off primarily Lake Ontario. Convergence within any lake showers could also yield waterspouts on both lakes...this as EQL heights increase to 25K to 30K feet. Air temperatures will be just below normal to normal throughout the time period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... An upper level ridge remains across the western half of the CONUS through the end of the work week. This will help maintain an anomalously deep upper level low across the Northeast. Wednesday, a jet streak rounds the base of the trough across the Mid-Atlantic region. This may spawn a coastal low near New England. At this time, there are major differences in the potential track and intensity of forecast coastal low. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will last through Thursday with greater chances during peak heating Wednesday and Thursday. A brief period of ridging is possible Friday before another shortwave trough moves across southern Ontario and southern Quebec into the weekend. Mostly dry weather likely going into the weekend with chances for showers increasing Saturday night. Temperatures will start off slightly below normal Wednesday through Thursday becoming near to above normal Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR will prevail through this evening with high cirrus increasing from west to east. High clouds will limit fog formation tonight, but can't rule out some localized river valley fog. This will probably remain east of the KJHW TAF. Quite a bit of cloud cover on Sunday but clouds will mainly be mid and high level and well in the VFR flight category. Clouds bases will lower during the afternoon with a small chance of showers across the Western Southern Tier. Outlook... Sunday night...Mainly VFR, except a chance of showers with areas of MVFR. Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and thunderstorms with local/brief flight restrictions. && .MARINE... High pressure will build over the lower Great Lakes through tonight with light winds through Sunday morning. East winds will increase some on Lake Ontario Sunday afternoon, producing a light chop west of Sodus Bay. There's a chance of waterspouts at times on Monday and Tuesday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Apffel/TMA NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock/TMA SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...Apffel/TMA MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock/TMA
Office: BGM FXUS61 KBGM 132326 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 726 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will bring dry and cool conditions through the remainder of the weekend. An upper level disturbance will bring chances for rain showers and thunderstorms Monday and through the middle of this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 610 PM Update... Overall little change to the previous forecast. Lowered clouds a bit for the evening before better mid level moisture works its way in from the NW. Watching to see if there can be better cloud coverage develop prior to the 930 pm update or else overnight lows will need to be lowered due to better radiational cooling. 215 PM Update... High pressure will persist through this period with dry conditions expected through Sunday. Shallow, patchy fog is possible in the river valleys again tonight, mostly in the upper Susquehanna and Delaware basins early tomorrow morning. Expect another chilly night ahead, with efficient radiational cooling lows will dip into the low 50s to upper 40s again. High clouds move in just before dawn tomorrow morning and this will keep temperatures a couple degrees warmer than last night. Clouds will increase through the day on Sunday, but for the most part, some sunshine can be expected, especially further east as clouds will be pushing in from the west. Upper level trough/low pressure system will move into western NY overnight Sunday into Monday morning. This will bring a chance for showers generally west of the I81 corridor by dawn on Monday, but rainfall that does manage to work into the area will be light. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 330 PM Update... A deep upper level trough will dig across the eastern US on Monday and be the main weather maker for the CWA for the period. A mid-level cutoff low will move across the southern periphery of the upper level trough and into the Mid-Atlantic by Monday afternoon. Cool temperatures aloft, combined with mostly SE flow off the Atlantic and increased low level moisture will keep temperatures a few degrees below average across the area. A weak shortwave rippling through the trough and the possibility of a boundary sliding into the area from the south could kick off some scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon, especially across NEPA and the Southern Tier. PWATs are low, between 1-1.25 inches so accumulations will be light. Monday night and Tuesday will be much of the same, as the trough remains overhead and the mid-level low south of the CWA continues to slide eastward into the Atlantic. Cool temperatures and a chance for scattered rain showers, especially across the Southern Tier and NEPA, are expected through Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 330 PM Update... The evolution of the deep trough over the eastern US will be the main weather problem for the period, with solutions on how it develops still unclear. In the latest 12z model runs, the GFS and Euro both develop a strong (for this time of year) low pressure system off the Mid- Atlantic coast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Timing and direction of the low remain in question as the GFS is a little farther west in placement of the trough and quicker to develop the low off the Mid Atlantic. This pushes the low to the N then the NW as it enters southern New England, getting caught up in the mid and upper level circulation and stalling over eastern NY before moving to the NE Thursday night, bringing much needed rain to the region. The Euro is a little slower developing the surface low off the Mid- Atlantic coast, which allows the upper trough to move farther to the east. The positioning of the trough guides the low along the eastern edge of southern New England and into Newfoundland by Friday morning. This scenario moves the majority of the rain to New England, only bringing scattered showers to our eastern counties. Because of the uncertainty in the development of the low, NBM guidance was used with a lean towards the Euro solution. Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be in the mid to upper 70s. As the trough moves out of the area Thursday night, WNW flow and high pressure build into the region Friday and Saturday. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the low to mid 80s on both days. Some weak mid-level vorticity advection could develop some isolated showers Saturday afternoon but at this time, nothing widespread is expected and low moisture will keep any accumulations small. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions expected over the nest 24 hours at all terminals. With high pressure in place, winds will be light and variable through the lower atmosphere. With how low the dew points got this afternoon, the threat for fog in the valleys is very low even with the efficient radiational cooling. Outlook... Sunday afternoon...VFR with high pressure in control. Rain and restrictions look to stay away through at least sunset Sunday. Sunday night through Thursday...Chances for showers and afternoon thunderstorms with associated occasional restrictions possible. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...AJG/MPK SHORT TERM...JTC LONG TERM...JTC AVIATION...AJG