FXUS61 KCLE 101953
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
353 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022
A weak cold front will move southeast across the area on
Thursday. High pressure will build over the region through the
weekend with temperatures slightly below average.
.NEAR TERM /through Thursday night/...
Overall, our weather will be quiet and pleasant for the rest of
the week. There is a stalled frontal boundary to our south near
the Ohio River causing considerable cloudiness across our
central Ohio counties this afternoon. Weak high pressure is
building in from the north today. A secondary cold front will
move across the region tomorrow morning. Moisture will be very
limited but can't rule out a spotty sprinkle or isolated shower
with the cold front in the morning. We will start out the day
with variable clouds giving way to sunnier skies by the
afternoon. High pressure will build down across the Great Lakes
region from southern Ontario later on Thursday. Afternoon
temperatures will be comfortable in the middle to upper 70s.
Overnight low temperatures Thursday night will fall down into
lower and middle 50s away from the lakeshore.
.SHORT TERM /Friday through Saturday night/...
Very pleasant conditions are expected through the start of the
weekend as a strong 1025 mb Canadian High centered over the
western Great Lakes Friday morning gradually slides into the
eastern Great Lakes by Saturday night. This along with deep
mid/upper troughing over the eastern CONUS, which actually
evolves into a closed low that rotates up the New England coast,
will provide cool, dry northerly flow across our region leading
to below normal temps and low humidity. Highs Friday will only
reach the mid/upper 70s warming slightly into the upper 70s/low
80s Saturday. Lows Friday night will be crisp with the surface
high right overhead with generally low/upper 50s. Slightly
milder Saturday night as return flow starts to develop behind
the departing high with lows in the mid 50s/low 60s. Guidance is
coming into better agreement and consistency on a reinforcing
shortwave trough that drops through the western Great Lakes
Saturday night, helping to reload the eastern CONUS mid/upper
trough. PVA and upper support from the left exit of a roughly
70-80 knot H3 jet streak will combine with warm/moist advection
over the western lakes to generate an area of showers over
Michigan. This should slide into NW and north central Ohio late
Saturday night, although it will take awhile to reach the ground
given the very dry low-level airmass at the onset. Did not sway
much from the previous forecast with chance PoPs slowly moving
in from NW to SE.
.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...
The aforementioned mid/upper shortwave will move SE of the region
Sunday morning, but there is decent consensus that another shortwave
will drop through the longwave trough Sunday afternoon. A baroclinic
zone/quasi-stationary front will be tightening from the northern
Plains through the Mississippi Valley as these reinforcing
shortwaves fight a broad mid/upper ridge centered over the Rockies
and Plains that will be trying to build east. Had to keep chance
PoPs for scattered showers through the day Sunday given the possible
second shortwave energy, and some thunder is possible in the
afternoon given surface heating beneath a continued cold pool aloft,
but the best instability/theta e gradient will certainly be held
back toward the Mississippi Valley, so not expecting organized
convection. Definitely do not expect Sunday to be a washout given
rather weak forcing and lacking instability, but scattered showers
will be around. Most of the showers should exit Sunday night as
surface high pressure builds into the northern lakes, but a few
showers will persist over eastern Ohio and western PA as the
shortwave develops a weak surface low in the central Appalachians
that gradually pivots east Sunday night into Monday. Highs Sunday
will be a bit cooler in the mid 70s to near 80 with the additional
cloud cover with lows in the low/mid 60s Sunday night.
In general, below normal temperatures will continue Monday through
Wednesday, but rain chances are a little lower confidence. Deep
eastern CONUS troughing will continue Monday with the aforementioned
surface low lifting toward the east coast and surface high remaining
in the northern Great Lakes. This will maintain comfortably cool
conditions across our region, but dew points will creep into the low
60s as some warm air advection develops ahead of a strong shortwave
dropping into the Upper Midwest. Did hold onto chance PoPs for
scattered showers and thunder, especially during peak heating due to
the trough and associated cold pool overhead combining with the
better dew points. This shortwave looks to drop into the region
Monday night into Tuesday pushing a cold front through the area.
Exact timing is uncertain, but expect at least widely scattered
showers/thunder to continue ahead of the boundary. The longwave
trough will once again reload Tuesday and Wednesday behind the front
with the latest GFS and ECMWF even suggesting evolution into a broad
closed low over much of the NE U.S. by midweek. This would lead to
well below normal temps and scattered showers if it pans out. Given
uncertainty and it being 7 days out, just kept NBM chance PoPs and
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, which is a few degrees below
.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Generally VFR conditions will prevail with some scattered to
occasional broken ceilings above 3500 feet today. Otherwise,
fair weather skies are expected with no flight category changes.
Winds will be somewhat light and variable this afternoon into
this evening. A secondary weak cold front will move across the
area early Thursday morning. Winds will continue to remain
light out of the north and less than 10 knots through the TAF
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered rain showers Saturday
night into Sunday.
Issued a Small Craft Advisory for the central basin from 09 to
14Z as N winds of 15-20 knots behind a cold front kick up 3 to 5
foot waves. This will also cause a high risk of rip currents in
the nearshore waters. Winds and waves will diminish from mid
Thursday morning through the afternoon, but then increase again
later Thursday evening to N and NE at 15-20 knots with waves
building to 3- 5 feet again, and this will continue through
Thursday night when additional Small Craft Advisories are
likely. For Friday through the weekend, quiet conditions are
expected on the lake with light NE winds at 5-10 knots gradually
becoming S at 10-15 knots Sunday, then light northerly late
Sunday night into Monday.
Waterspouts are possible on the lake Friday night into Saturday
morning as a strong lake to 850 mb temperature difference will be in
place along with what looks to be light, and possibly convergent
FXUS61 KILN 102008
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
408 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022
A secondary cold front dropping into the area may produce a
shower or thunderstorm on Thursday. Drier and less humid
conditions arrive late this week into this weekend as high
pressure of Canadian origin builds across the area.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Satellite imagery indicates a weak surface wave and associated
cold front a slowly moving south this afternoon. A few lines of
thunderstorms have developed, but overall, coverage has been
more scattered than previously anticipated. Due to the scattered
nature and no real signs for deep convective organization, have
decided to cancel the flood watch a few hours early. Locally
heavy rain remains possible, but widespread flooding is no
The deeper moisture and trough do not clear the area until late
this evening so there will likely be some lingering shower and
thunderstorm activity across the far south.
Through the overnight, the concern will change from flash
flooding to fog potential. Drier air is advecting in from the
north, but will be delayed long enough to allow for low level
moisture to remain into the morning. Most likely places for fog
will be in area river valleys and usual spots but area wide
patchy fog is expected.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A mid-level trough moving in through the Great Lakes pushes any
remaining deep moisture into the Southeast US. A secondary
front associated with the trough quickly slides through the
Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley throughout the day. While the
overall atmosphere is much drier, sufficient moisture
convergence along the front will allow for a few scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorm to form, primarily during the
afternoon and early evening. This band of precipitation will
move south throughout the day before decrease in coverage late.
Surface high pressure builds in overnight with cooler
temperatures occurring into Friday morning. Some river valley
fog is possible but drier air should prevent widespread fog.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cool and dry conditions will be in place to start out the long term
on Friday. With CAA expect cu to develop. Another dry day is
expected for Saturday. Temperatures are expected to be a little
warmer, however still expect below normal temperatures for Saturday.
A more unsettled pattern starts to move into the region beginning
Saturday night. The unsettled weather pattern will keep off and on
precipitation chances in the forecast through Tuesday before dry
conditions return for Wednesday.
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Stalled frontal boundary continues to result in the IFR/MVFR
CIGs this afternoon with some showers and thunderstorms
beginning to develop. Winds will continue to switch from
southwest to north over the next few hours as the boundary
Will continue to monitor convective activity this afternoon with
some adjustments still possible in CVG/LUK/ILN TAFs.
As the boundary shifts southward, clouds gradually clear from
22Z-05Z. With the clearing, some fog restrictions are possible
with much of the wording highlighting the usual spots.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Monday.