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Office: TSA

FXUS64 KTSA 170521

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1221 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022

...New AVIATION...

(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 856 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Frontal boundary continues to push south across northeastern
Oklahoma this evening, currently located form near Bristow to
Bixby to Locust Grove and Jay. Scattered thunderstorms were common
earlier this evening along and north of the front with some
occasional strong wind gusts as storms pulsed up and down in
intensity. As the sun has set, instability is beginning to wane
across the area and we are seeing an overall decrease in
thunderstorm development along the frontal boundary as it pushes
further south. This trend is expected to continue through the
evening hours for locations along the front. Much cooler
temperatures and breezy northerly winds are being welcomed behind
the front with temperatures quickly dropping into the 70s and 80s
north of the boundary.

The main story for the rest of the night will be watching a
complex of storms currently across southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri pushing southward as well as watching for additional
thunderstorm development across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Current complex of storms should begin to affect parts
of far northeast Oklahoma within the next hour and then into
northwest Arkansas later tonight. Gusty winds along with heavy
rainfall will be likely in this complex. The overall severe
potential is declining somewhat as instability weakens, though
better deep layer shear could help maintain some stronger updrafts
and produce some severe wind gusts in the terrain of northwest
Arkansas. Additionally, a mid to upper level shortwave currently
sampled in wind fields across central Kansas will progress east
southeast throughout the night bringing better upper level support
for storm development near and after midnight. Upscale growth of
convection will be possible across far northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas later tonight with heavy rain becoming a threat
as multiple rounds of storms move through the same areas.
Precipitable water values near two inches and efficient rainfall
production could lead to locally 2-4 inches of rain within a short
period. That heaviest band could set up just north of our area
into southwest Missouri, but will continue to monitor through the
night for an evolving heavy rain and localized flash flooding

For the update this evening, adjusted PoPs/QPF through the
morning along with hourly temps and dewpoints accounting for the
latest obs and trends.


(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Lingering showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will likely
persist on Wednesday, including a few strong storms possible near
the Red River as cold front stalls over the ARKLATX region. At least
some break from the excessive heat expected, although a slow warming
trend is still expected Thursday into Friday with humidity levels

Another frontal boundary is forecast to move into the area on Saturday
as upper low moves into Great Lakes region. Although there is some
precip timing differences between the GFS/ECMWF, decent rain chances
will persist over the weekend into early next week as boundary stalls
over the area with a series of weak upper level disturbances in zonal
flow aloft. In addition, with the expected cloud cover, high temperatures
should remain a few degrees below normal, which is generally a good
thing mid August.


(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022

Widespread convection ongoing across NW AR will continue to spread
eastward with lessening flight impacts in the near term. Scattered
storms however are likely to persist across NE OK through NW AR
through the overnight hours while lower ceilings gradually spread
southward behind the advancing cold front. Precip chances lessen
and focus more southward during the day however MVFR to periodic
IFR ceilings are likely into the afternoon with gradual
improvement in ceilings from north to south later in the day.


TUL   67  87  66  92 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   68  88  68  91 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   67  84  66  92 /  30  30   0   0
BVO   64  88  62  92 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   60  85  61  87 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   60  84  61  87 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   65  83  63  88 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   61  86  61  89 /   0   0   0  10
F10   66  84  63  91 /  20  20   0   0
HHW   69  82  67  90 /  50  40  10  10





Office: OUN FXUS64 KOUN 170404 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1104 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 A cold front will begin to accelerate later this afternoon from northwestern Oklahoma into central Oklahoma. Ahead of that, it will be very hot and humid with heat index ranging up to 108. The heat advisory remains in effect this afternoon. By late afternoon, isolated thunderstorms are expected to form near the front generally around or to the north of I-40. With very large surface dew point depressions and high LCLs, its likely that some storms will produce severe winds. Although rather isolated, these storms near the southward-moving cold front would probably impact the greater OKC area 4 PM - 7 PM or so. The front is expected to move past southeastern Oklahoma by sunrise Wednesday. Stratus is expected to follow the front by several hours, at least through northern and central Oklahoma. Overnight, there is a signal for rain and thunderstorms over northwestern Oklahoma associated with the passage of the southern extent of the weak trough passing through the westerlies. Moderately gusty winds behind the front will create a stark contrast between this afternoon and Wednesday during the daytime. Low clouds are expected to exit central and north central Oklahoma later Wednesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Shower and thunderstorms chances will continue across southern and western portions of the fa Wednesday night into Thursday before the front that is expected to be south of the fa washes out and as a shortwave continues to move across the region Wednesday night. A brief dry period is expected Thursday night into Friday with temperatures warming back into the 90s Friday afternoon. Models then show an upper low moving across the upper midwest into the Great Lakes region which will drag a frontal boundary into the area over the weekend. This system will bring a better chance for rain over the weekend that will continue into early next week. The front along with clouds and rain should lead to cooler temperatures with highs generally remaining in the 80s Sunday into early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1103 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 The initial showers over west central and central Oklahoma near the front are dissipating, but the convection over southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas will continue to move toward northwest Oklahoma, although a weakening trend has been noted with these showers/storms. Still there is a potential for these to move into the KWWR area early Wednesday morning. Stratus with MVFR (and locally IFR) ceilings continues to spread south from Kansas into northern Oklahoma and will affect northern and central Oklahoma Wednesday morning. There is some potential for this stratus to reach KLAW as well, but the chances are not high enough to put in the TAF at this time. Ceilings will lift back to VFR on Tuesday afternoon across most of the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 71 85 66 85 / 40 20 10 10 Hobart OK 71 90 67 89 / 20 20 30 20 Wichita Falls TX 75 97 69 88 / 10 20 40 30 Gage OK 65 79 60 86 / 60 40 10 10 Ponca City OK 68 79 63 86 / 50 30 0 0 Durant OK 76 98 69 84 / 10 30 40 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...26
Office: AMA FXUS64 KAMA 170538 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1238 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 The front looks to be in the southern TX Panhandle this afternoon from about Wheeler to Amarillo to just north of Adrian. A cu field is filling in south and near the front. This will set the stage for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms that look to start forming after 5 PM. With the uplift from the front, the low level moisture in the area and the instability from the daytime heating in the area, low level lapse rates are forecast to be modest and MLCAPE could be around 1000 J/kg. DCAPE may be even higher at 1500 J/kg. This may lead to some storms becoming strong to severe with winds as the primary threat, but can't rule out some small hail nearing quarter size. With the upper level high overhead, steering flow is very slow. PWATs are over an inch, which is at the 75th percentile. This may lead to some areas, particularly urban areas where drainage is poor, to seeing localized flooding issues. After 7 PM, the next round of precip chances comes into play with a shortwave coming through the northern Panhandles. CAMs show showers with embedded thunderstorms forming and pushing into the OK Panhandle and northern TX Panhandle. There still may be enough instability from 7 to 8 PM to bring some severe winds with the more intense storms. After 8 PM, instability lowers and storms will become elevated, cutting off severe chances. Slow moving storms may still cause flooding issues though through the night. The complex of storms looks to remain over the northern Panhandles through the night and could still be producing beneficial rainfall in the eastern Panhandles in the morning hours as people head to work and school. A reinforcing front will push through the Panhandles tomorrow and bring more precip chances across the area during the day and through the overnight hours again. With far less instability in place in the post-frontal air mass, severe weather shouldn't be a concern for Wednesday. Temps will be lower as well with the new air mass and extensive cloud cover. These should keep the highs in the 70s for most. Beat && .LONG TERM ... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Lingering precipitation is possible Thursday morning, but will quickly dissipate through the day as flow aloft becomes more northerly. By Thursday afternoon/evening the precipitation chances will quickly decrease with most of the moisture kept to the west and south of the Panhandles and only a small chance for lingering rain showers across the far southwest Texas Panhandle. NBM precipitation chances were stretched too far east and also were a bit too high given the pattern shifting to northerly flow aloft, therefore the current forecast has slightly lowered rain chances for Thursday compared to the NBM. Heading into Friday, a weak front will move through the Panhandles through the day with some surface convergence for storms to develop along during the afternoon hours. Overall rain chances are fairly low despite northwesterly flow aloft. This flow will be along the north side of the extending ridge over the southeast CONUS that expands westward into New Mexico. This pattern keeps much of the moisture to the west of the area, but if the ridge sets up farther east then some rain chances may creep into the Panhandles. Therefore a 20 percent chance for showers along the front and any change in the pattern aloft was maintained from the NBM. Heading into the weekend and early next week, the chance for precipitation increases again with a weak trough developing across the Great Basin and southwesterly flow aloft. This pattern will help to feed monsoonal moisture into West Texas with more widespread rain chances across the Panhandles. Latest model trends give around 0.5" to 1" of precipitation across many areas of the Panhandles, but this trend will definitely need to be monitored as this heavily relies on the pattern aloft. Temperatures across the southwest Texas Panhandle Thursday may struggle to warm above the upper 70s due to lingering rain showers and cloud cover through the morning. Meanwhile, the remainder of the Panhandles will be in the 80s. Friday appears to be the warmest in the extended forecast with little rain chances and less cloud cover to halt any warming. Heading into the weekend and next week, temperatures will be on a cooler downwards trend towards the 70s to mid 80s with almost 20 degree temperatures below normal for this time of year. Rutt && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Messy and uncertain 24 hours ahead for aviation interest. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms have not been as widespread as originally hoped, but GUY still looks to be dealing with issues over the next few hours. Attention then turns to the potential for post-frontal MVFR stratus at all sites Wednesday morning. Thinking this is a pretty good bet, so have included it at all sites. Finally, additional round of showers and thunderstorms may develop but, with overall coverage limited, confidence is too low to introduce thunder late in the period. Expect to revisit this in subsequent TAF issuances. Ferguson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 79 63 82 62 / 50 60 60 10 Beaver OK 78 59 87 61 / 50 10 10 10 Boise City OK 74 58 84 58 / 50 40 30 10 Borger TX 79 64 88 65 / 40 40 40 10 Boys Ranch TX 81 64 84 63 / 50 60 50 10 Canyon TX 81 62 81 61 / 50 60 60 20 Clarendon TX 83 65 83 63 / 30 60 50 10 Dalhart TX 77 59 83 59 / 50 60 40 10 Guymon OK 76 59 87 60 / 50 20 20 10 Hereford TX 81 63 82 61 / 40 70 70 20 Lipscomb TX 77 60 86 61 / 40 20 20 10 Pampa TX 77 62 85 62 / 40 40 40 10 Shamrock TX 81 63 87 63 / 30 40 40 10 Wellington TX 87 65 87 63 / 20 50 40 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...77