Air Resources Laboratory banner image
Air Resources Laboratory web site National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

tx discuss

Office: AMA

FXUS64 KAMA 161129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
629 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

...New AVIATION...

(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Looking at the current observations across the Panhandles this
early morning, we can depict an outflow boundary from the
thunderstorm activity over the I-25 corridor in southern CO and
northern NM. This has developed a few showers in the far western
OK Panhandle this morning. This has also helped to progress a weak
cold front into the northwestern Panhandles where a few obs now
have northerly winds. Other than a wind shift, no real notable
airmass change behind cold front.

As the front moves further south into the TX Panhandle, the main
steering flow and overall shear becomes quite weak, i.e. the front
should slowly moves south throughout the day today, reaching the
I-40 corridor during the 2nd half of the day today. Further up
from the surface at 700hPa, a broad high pressure system centered
within the Red River Valley, in-conjunction with the remnant
tropical system moving northwest over the Rio Grande will help to
funnel decent theta-e advection into the Texas Panhandle by this
afternoon. If stronger surface convergence along the southward
moving front, along with good low to mid level lapse rates can be
established with daytime heating this afternoon, we may see
showers and thunderstorms develop along the vicinity of the front.
However, wind shear across the majority of the Panhandles remains
quite weak, so longevity of storms and if updrafts can break the
cap will remain in question. With no strong contrast behind the
front in terms of airmass, if daytime heating can break the cap,
storms may also generate in the wake of the front as well. As
observational trends come throughout the day, if updrafts can
form, storms could be strong with small hail and gusty winds
possible in their relatively short life cycle, again due to very
weak wind shear.

Further into the afternoon and evening hours, we will be watching
a second area for thunderstorm development. A perturbation in the
monsoon flow pattern will develop thunderstorms across the NM/CO
high terrain once again. Effective wind shear across NM/CO will be
a bit higher compared to the Panhandles. However with daytime
heating across the northern combined Panhandles, effective shear
around 15-20 kts with good LL lapse rates should provide some
decent buoyancy as storms from NM move east into the Panhandles.
As a result, as thunderstorms move into the northwestern
Panhandles, they could become strong to severe this afternoon
into the evening hours. Damaging winds will be the main threat.
Cannot rule out localized flooding from heavy downpours along with
some hail in the more robust initial updrafts, most likely for
areas closer to the NM state line. The main severe threat should
come to an end before midnight tonight with low topped elevated
thunderstorms in the wake of main outflow boundaries that may
continue into the overnight hours. High temperatures today will
range from the mid 80s in the NW to upper 90s in the SE.

Going into the day tomorrow, main H500 center tries to redevelop
over the Great Salt Lake in Utah with more of H500 northwesterly
flow pattern over the Panhandles. Perturbations that develop in
the NW flow over the NM/CO high terrain, aided by residual surface
boundaries, should bring diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
to the Panhandles once again. Gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall/downpours will be main threat with thunderstorms.



(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

Residual showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday night are
expected Thursday morning across most of the forecast area, with
precipitation diminishing and ending from the northeast by Thursday
afternoon. NBM pops were acceptable and fit the overall trend for
Thursday and were incorporated into the grids. Short and medium
range deterministic models continue to trend just a bit lower with
pops for Thursday afternoon through Friday night compared to
those values 24 hours ago as the upper level flow becomes north
northwesterly due to an upper level ridge of high pressure over
the Great Basin and Intermountain West region and an upper level
trof situated over the eastern states. As a result, based on this
pattern, most of the precipitation is progged to be shunted south
and west of the OK and TX Panhandles Thursday afternoon through
Friday evening. The latest NBM pops during this time period
continue to trend a little lower and now better reflect the above.
Nevertheless, NBM values still seem a bit high compared to the
deterministic 00Z MEXMOS and ECXMOS values and have undercut the
NBM pops just a bit for Thursday afternoon through Friday evening.

According to the latest medium range models, it appears the chance
for showers and thunderstorms may increase again this weekend into
Monday due to the possibility of a couple minor upper level shortwave
trofs embedded in the overall flow pattern impacting the region.
Chance pops offered by the NBM for Saturday through Monday remain
plausible at this time and were utilized.



(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022

VFR conditions will start at all TAF sites for the 12Z TAF period.
Starting around 23Z, VCTS conditions will start at KDHT with
PROB30 to follow for KDHT/KGUY between 00Z and 03Z Wednesday.
Could also see VCTS conditions around 00Z for KAMA as well. Thunderstorms
moving over TAF sites may cause erratic winds. Starting around
06Z Wednesday and continuing towards the end of the TAF period,
MVFR cigs are expected with even some IFR cigs at times,
especially for KDHT/KGUY. Winds overall will be out of the north
at 10-20 kts.



Amarillo TX                92  65  83  63 /  20  40  50  50
Beaver OK                  91  64  79  59 /  20  50  40  20
Boise City OK              86  62  75  58 /  50  80  60  40
Borger TX                  97  68  84  64 /  20  40  40  40
Boys Ranch TX              93  66  83  64 /  20  60  50  60
Canyon TX                  92  65  84  63 /  10  30  50  60
Clarendon TX               96  68  86  65 /  10  20  30  40
Dalhart TX                 89  62  78  60 /  50  70  60  60
Guymon OK                  90  62  78  58 /  30  60  50  30
Hereford TX                93  65  86  63 /  10  30  50  60
Lipscomb TX                96  65  80  60 /  20  50  30  20
Pampa TX                   95  65  82  61 /  20  40  40  30
Shamrock TX                99  67  86  63 /  10  30  30  30
Wellington TX              99  70  90  66 /  10  20  20  30





Office: EWX FXUS64 KEWX 161359 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 859 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 856 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Forecast remains largely on track with the exception of some areas of very low clouds/patchy fog that have developed through the early morning hours across portions of the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. Have accounted for this through 10 AM in this forecast update. Low clouds and pockets of low vis values should mix out after through the late morning as surface heating continues. Quigley && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 The weak tropical low has now positioned to the southern tip of the Big Bend region and will continue to move west-northwestward over the next day or two. Behind the low, 500 mb heights rise across the region as upper level ridging centered across the Texas panhandle and along the Red River valley nudges southward from today into Wednesday. Majority of the rain associated with the surface low has progressed west of the Rio Grande. However, we'll keep lingering rain and storm chances through the morning for portions of the Edwards Plateau and along the Rio Grande with any convective redevelopment along or near the border that could have the chance to pivot into the area. With PWATs exceeding 2 to 2.2 inches across that region, some pockets of locally heavy rain may still be possible with any activity that does develop. As a result, we'll cautiously continue the inherited Flood Watch that is currently in effect until 10 AM CDT across Val Verde County. Rain chances are expected to fully exit to the west of the Rio Grande into and through the afternoon with dry conditions trending through the rest of the period. High temperatures for locations along the Rio Grande and into the Edwards Plateau where the clouds linger the longest and where the most rain has fallen over the past 24 hours will only top out from the upper 80s into the lower 90s. Elsewhere, the high temperatures will trend warmer this afternoon with the Hill Country climbing into the mid 90s while the upper 90s and in excess of 100 degrees will be common over our northern and eastern areas. Heat indices are to climb as high as 102 to 107 for areas along and east of the I-35 corridor. Most will remain rain free this afternoon but an isolated seabreeze shower or storm will be possible across the coastal plains. Tonight will stay dry with lows bottoming out in the typical low to upper 70 degree range. Wednesday trends slightly hotter across South-Central Texas with little to no rain expected. While a few isolated locations will see the high temperatures reach heat advisory criteria, areal coverage could be limited enough to avoid any heat headlines. Additionally, with slightly drier dew points expected during Wednesday afternoon, the heat indices should trend closer to the ambient temperatures. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Northwest flow aloft starts to become established across south central Texas on Thursday as the subtropical high weakens and the tail end of an upper trough sags southward. With fairly stout northwest flow aloft well upstream into the high plains, we will see a weak cold front gradually move southward into portions of central Texas on Thursday. At this time, it looks like the front will eventually work southward into the Hill Country and nearby I-35 corridor by late afternoon. High temperatures will be tricky as cooling behind the front does not look overly impressive. South of the front, it will be warm, with highs in the mid 90s to near 102. The cold front along with daytime heating and some weak disturbances in the northwest flow aloft will aid in the development of some scattered convection. Rain chances are looking pretty good from the Hill Country eastward into the I-35 corridor and coastal plains. For now, we will keep chances capped around 50 percent, but may need to go higher pending later model data. Some pockets of locally heavy rainfall may develop during the evening hours as some stronger lift arrives and interacts with precipitable water values around 2" along with weak 0-6km AGL mean winds. Rain chances persist into Friday, but much will likely depend on where the remnant cold front and outflow boundaries are located. For now, we will limit rain chances to 50 percent, but may need to adjust upward. Temperatures will also ease slightly on Friday with highs in the 90s, with perhaps some 80s in the Hill Country. The flow aloft remains weak through the upcoming weekend, but does take on more of a westerly component as a west to east oriented trough develops over the central Rockies. This trough axis may eventually sag southward into portions of north and central Texas as we head into the upcoming weekend and early next week. We will keep a fairly low chance (generally 20-30%) in the forecast for most of the region for the weekend into Monday. The NBM guidance looks a little too cool on temperatures, so we have opted to keep the forecast closer to climatological normals for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Mix of IFR to VFR flight conditions this morning with the majority of the low clouds favoring Del Rio (KDRT) and the San Antonio TAF sites (KSAT, KSSF). A couple of light showers currently exist near KDRT. With high moisture levels, some additional development of showers and perhaps a storm or two remains possible. Any activity should push out of the area by around 18Z. Elected to keep VCSH through that time for now. VFR flight conditions are expected to return to each site by early this afternoon. A couple of isolated showers could develop this afternoon across the coastal plains but any cells should remain south and east of the TAF sites. Tonight will see the return of MVFR ceilings at the San Antonio TAF sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 102 77 103 78 / 10 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100 74 102 76 / 10 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 97 75 100 75 / 10 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 97 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 89 76 95 76 / 30 10 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 100 76 102 78 / 0 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 93 75 97 75 / 10 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 98 74 101 75 / 10 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 99 75 101 75 / 10 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 96 76 99 76 / 10 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 96 76 99 76 / 10 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for Val Verde. && $$ Short-Term...Brady Long-Term...Platt Aviation...Brady
Office: BRO FXUS64 KBRO 161125 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 625 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...General VFR conditions prevail outside of some thin field fog at KHRL around sunrise and brief MVFR within passing shower or thunderstorm along the sea breeze late this morning and the afternoon. Light to moderate southeast winds with a few gusts around 20 knots. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): Low pressure over the Big Bend will be out of picture as it continues drifting west around the western periphery of a 500 mb ridge. This ridge is shown to build over much of Texas allowing for some subtle drying of the 700-300mb layer. Surface-700mb mean RH of 65-70 percent today and 60-65 Wed and average pwat of 1.8 inches and light southeast breeze should be sufficient for isolated late morning and afternoon sea breeze convection each day. Most locations will have the opportunity to dry out, however models suggest any shower potential dropping upwards of one-quarter inches with isolated higher amounts in any slow moving thunderstorm. Consensus shows the sea breeze potentially working its way into Zapata today and only tracking just west of the I-69C corridor Wednesday. The modest 500mb ridge, wet antecedent soil conditions to temper temperatures with near seasonal highs 90-100 and lows 75-80 degrees today, tonight and tomorrow. Dew points remain relatively high today pushing heat indices 105-110, however models do show slightly lower dew points Wednesday allowing for the heat index to be a few degrees lower. LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): Hot and mainly dry weather continues to end the work week. Rain chances increase this weekend as a tropical wave moves northwest from the Bay of Campeche. An H5 ridge stretching from northwest Texas to the middle Texas coast will continue to put a lid on rain chances to end the work week. Ensemble guidance suggests Precipitable Water values (PWATs) in the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range, or near to below average for the middle of August. With rain chances limited, temperatures will rebound to near normal with widespread upper 90s to lower 100s expected Thursday and Friday. Dew points are also forecast to remain elevated due to recent rains. The combination of elevated dew points and near normal temperatures will push heat indices to 107 to 111 degrees Thursday and Friday afternoon. So a Heat Advisory may be needed both days. For the weekend, a tropical wave currently in the Caribbean Sea is expected to move across Central America and into the Bay of Campeche Thursday night into Friday. As of now (3:30 AM CDT), the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has a 20 percent chance of this wave developing over the next 5 days. Regardless of development, rain chances increase later Friday night into Saturday as the tropical wave nears Deep South Texas. Deterministic models advertise the moisture from this tropical wave lifting northwest late Friday night and into the weekend. However, ensembles are not as enthused about rain chances, so have decided to limit rain chances Saturday and Sunday to between 40 and 50 percent Saturday and 20 to 30 percent Sunday. One reason for the disagreement is how they resolve an H5 ridge that is forecast to build across the northern Gulf of Mexico that could push the wave west into Mexico before reaching our County Warning Area (CWA). How all of that evolves will greatly dictate our rain chances this weekend. With the added clouds and elevated rain chances this weekend, temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal Saturday and Sunday. The heat returns early next week as rain chances dwindle. MARINE: Now through Wednesday...A weakening pressure gradient is observed over the lower Texas coastal waters as a low pressure area near the Big Bend of Texas moves west and surface high pressure fills in over the western Gulf of Mexico. Light southeast flow and subsiding seas are forecast through Wednesday. A few streamer showers or an isolated thunderstorm is possible overnight and early each morning. Wednesday Night through Monday... Mostly favorable marine conditions are expected to start the period with southeasterly winds at 10 to 15 knots and seas running generally 2 to 3 feet. Winds across the Laguna Madre Thursday and Friday afternoons may bump up against Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) criteria. Beyond that, it all depends on what happens with the tropical wave entering the Bay of Campeche. As of now, seas are forecast to increase slightly, but remain below 5 feet, and southeasterly winds between 10 to 20 knots with SCEC conditions anticipated more often than not through the weekend and into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 78 92 78 / 30 10 20 0 BROWNSVILLE 95 79 95 79 / 40 10 20 0 HARLINGEN 95 76 95 77 / 30 0 20 0 MCALLEN 97 78 98 78 / 20 10 20 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 77 97 77 / 20 10 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 88 81 / 30 10 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: Short Term/Aviation...59-GB Long Term...58-Reese
Office: CRP FXUS64 KCRP 161127 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 627 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 402 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 - Drier conditions are expected across South Texas today and Wednesday. However, there will still be a low chance (around 20%) of showers and thunderstorms across the Coastal Bend and Coastal Plains. Satellite imagery this morning shows the area of low pressure responsible for Sunday and Monday's heavy rainfall continues to lift northwest into West Texas and Southern New Mexico. While GOES water vapor imagery indicates drier air in the mid levels over South Texas, satellite derived PWAT ranging from 1.6 to 2 inches indicate ample low level moisture is still in place to result in a conditionally unstable atmosphere. Regional radar imagery shows isolated convection already developing along the coastal waters and immediate coast. HREF guidance indicates that additional convection will develop along the Texas coast through 10 AM before spreading inland during the afternoon hours. With respect to precipitation amounts, chances are low to moderate (20-30 percent) that convection today will result in any measurable precipitation. 00Z HREF guidance indicates that any robust convection that develops could produce rainfall totals of 2-3 inches today. Even with the rainfall South Texas has received over the past 48 hours, flash flood guidance ranges from 2-3 inches outside of urban areas. Based on the combination of drier mid-level air, decreasing upper level support for ascent, limited surface forcing, and higher end precipitation totals only approaching flash flood guidance, the potential for any additional flash flooding today looks to be very low. The atmosphere is expected to be even less conducive for convection on Wednesday. Therefore, precipitation chances are less than 20 percent with showers being even more isolated than today. This should allow for slightly warmer temperatures, which in combination with the increased surface moisture will contributed to apparent temperatures increasing to 105-109 during the afternoon hours on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 402 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Key messages: - Drier Thurday and Friday with rain chances returning this weekend. - Heat index values between 105-109 for much of South Texas Thursday through next Tuesday. - A tropical wave will enter the Bay of Campeche Thursday The upper level ridge is expected to weaken Thursday as a broad trough digs south across the Southeast United States and into the northern Gulf coast. Models continue to show this feature ejecting a frontal boundary into Central Texas Thursday, which could potentially sag into South Texas Friday. With PWATs ranging from 1.77-2" Friday, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads if the boundary indeed does sag into the region. With very little change from the previous forecast package, models continue to show a tropical wave (20% chance of development in the next 5 days as per the National Hurricane Center) entering the Bay of Campeche Thursday morning. Models are also continuing to show the feature moving northward through the end of the work week, potentially approaching the Mexico/Texas border Saturday. If this verifies, additional tropical moisture can be advected into South Texas leading to showers and thunderstorms across the area this weekend with rain chances tapering off early next week. Cooler highs are expected through the long-term with highs ranging from the lower 90s near the coast to near 102 degrees across the Brush Country. Despite the cooler highs, added moisture across the region will promote elevated heat index values across much of the area with heat indices ranging from 105-109 degrees. Lows will remain mild with temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 MVFR ceilings at KALI/KCOT/KLRD are expected to mix out to VFR during 15Z-18Z. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will develop along the coast by mid-morning and move inland during the early afternoon. However, the likelihood of any significant restrictions at area TAF sites is less than 30 percent. Therefore, only included VCSH at ALI where there is the highest probability of showers from 15Z-21Z. Predominately SCT/BKN ceilings from 3000-5000 feet can be expected this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 402 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the coastal waters during the morning through mid-afternoon hours on Tuesday and Wednesday. Otherwise, southeast winds of 10-15 knots can be expected with seas of 2-3 feet. Weak to moderate southeasterly flow is expected Thursday and Friday with winds increasing to more moderate levels Saturday and Sunday as a tropical wave potentially approaches the coastal waters. The increase in winds Saturday and Sunday will result in periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Saturday morning through early next week, with the potential for gusty winds within any possible thunderstorm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 90 77 92 76 / 30 0 20 0 Victoria 94 75 97 75 / 20 0 20 0 Laredo 96 77 96 78 / 10 10 10 0 Alice 94 75 96 74 / 40 0 20 0 Rockport 94 81 94 81 / 20 0 20 0 Cotulla 98 77 100 78 / 20 0 10 0 Kingsville 91 76 93 75 / 30 0 20 0 Navy Corpus 89 83 89 81 / 20 0 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM....JCP AVIATION...TWH/91
Office: EPZ FXUS64 KEPZ 161136 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 536 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 ...Update for 12Z TAF Cycle... .AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE Mostly clear skies and light E/SE surface winds this morning will be short lived as a tropical wave approaches from Big Bend. Cloud coverage increasing significantly after 18Z with CIGs 5-6K FT AGL. Surface winds also increasing from the E at 10-15KT as the system tracks westward into Chihuahua. SHRA reaching KELP after 00Z, with IFR CIGs possible overnight. Conditions likely staying VFR across NM terminals with CIGs 5-6K FT AGL, at least through Tuesday night. && .PREV DISCUSSION...343 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022... .SYNOPSIS... An active weather pattern starts today across southern New Mexico and far west Texas. A tropical wave will be moving through the area today and tomorrow Wednesday resulting in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Furthermore, there is a chance for periods of heavy rain with any storm. Gusty winds are also possible with any storm. For the second half of the week and into the weekend, the wet pattern persists as moisture remains in the area. The intrusion of moisture leads to better cloud coverage and cooler temperatures for the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight... Quiet conditions this morning as satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies and marginally dry air remains in place. This is the prelude to a much for active several days of weather with high confidence for above normal precipitation and plenty of cloudiness the rest of the week. A tropical sourced wave has moved up the Rio Grande valley the last couple of days and is now positioned over Big Bend, slowly moving westward. High clouds are already beginning to shift over west Texas and a substantial increase in moisture won't be far behind. Models show precipitable water values jumping to near record values (1.6-1.7") later this afternoon, likely some of the highest we've seen so far this monsoon season. The downside to all this moisture is the increase in cloud coverage will prevent the majority of convective activity east of the Rio Grande this afternoon, thus rains will be scattered but fairly moderate wherever they occur. This limitation of instability is a concern for rain potential, but should be made up for due to strong mid- level vorticity and dynamic lifting. More typical convective modes are expected across western New Mexico along the Continental Divide this afternoon where daytime heating is more likely. Expect weak, isolated thunderstorms for Grant/Hidalgo Counties, especially over the Gila Wilderness. Rain showers will begin to move into portions of Hudspeth County around sunrise this morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely through much of the day. Areal flooding is a threat, but stretching out rain showers throughout the day instead of all at once like we usually experience this time of year should limit the flooding risk. We've decided to hold off on any flood watches due to the marginal instability and uncertainty on high-end rain amounts. Temperatures will be much cooler east of the Rio Grande today as clouds move in during the afternoon. Much of Hudspeth County may struggle to reach 80 degrees due to the rain showers. High temperatures in El Paso will be in the mid-80s, with highs closer to 90 across southwest New Mexico. Another unusual phenomenon for mid- August will be winds. East flow will be enhanced quite a bit as the tropical system passes to our south, with breezy conditions likely this evening and overnight along the International Border. A few gusts to 30 mph will be possible. Better confidence in the track of this system taking it south through the heart of Chihuahua. The best rain chances tonight will be focused along the International Border and into Mexico with new rain amounts of 0.25-0.50" the best guess for Columbus, El Paso, and the lower Rio valley. Safe to say skies will be overcast well into Wednesday morning, keeping temperatures mild overnight. && .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday Night... On Wednesday, we continue to be under the effects of the tropical wave as it maintains its translation to the west-northwest. The trough axis should be somewhere in the vicinity of south-central New Mexico and northern Chihuahua. This system brings abnormal amounts of moisture to the region with PWs over 1.5 inches and sfc dewpoints in the 60s in areas along the International Border. Also PW values are around 120-140% of normal per ensemble data from the GFS. Prog soundings also indicate a very moist environment through the profile. Strong mid-level vorticity persists which will aid in the development of storms. The HREF members continue to indicate a good swath of precipitation along the southern half of the CWA on Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon with the axis of the system closer to the AZ/NM border, the best chances for precipitation will move towards the western half of the CWA. Rainfall amounts will be around 0.30-0.50 inches with isolated greater amounts especially over Hudspeth county. However, the core of the precipitation appears to remain mostly over Chihuahua. On Thursday, the active pattern persists as an upper trough from the northeast expands to the southwest behind the tropical system. At the surface, a weak/dissipating boundary will push towards us. This system brings additional instability and moisture. Therefore, rain and storm chances continue. The interaction of this boundary and the slow track of the tropical wave, now over Sonora and eastern Arizona, leads to better coverage of storms across the area. As we move into Friday, the focus of the convective activity returns to the west. However, models continue to agree about the development of a closed low in the vicinity of the Great Basin. This low becomes an open wave as it descends into Colorado, and eventually New Mexico. This track will push the plume of moisture from out west back into New Mexico and far west Texas by Saturday. On Saturday evening, the remnants of the tropical wave that affected us earlier in the week will be brought back as the aforementioned closed low/upper trough absorbs what is left of this system as it continues its movement to the east. Even though, there is some disagreement between models with the timing and placement of these features. It appears that showers and thunderstorms continue into early next week. The intrusion of all this moisture will lead to cooler temperatures across the region. Lowland temperatures drop into the 80s. The coolest temperatures of the week are expected on Wednesday as it is the day when we are expecting the most cloud cover and precipitation chances. && .FIRE WEATHER... Low fire danger expected this week as a substantial increase in moisture brings widespread wetting rains to southern New Mexico and far west Texas. For today, rain chances will be focused over west Texas and the International Border. Relative humidity dipping to 30-40% across southwest New Mexico will be followed by excellent overnight recoveries (75-85%). Stronger east flow this afternoon will lead to Good smoke ventilation. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will keep fire danger low late this week. Areal flooding will be possible with drainages and arroyos rising to seasonal highs as rain falls. Widespread rains are expected next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 86 70 84 69 / 40 60 60 50 Sierra Blanca 74 65 78 64 / 90 70 70 40 Las Cruces 89 67 83 66 / 20 40 60 50 Alamogordo 88 65 84 65 / 20 30 40 30 Cloudcroft 64 48 61 48 / 40 40 50 30 Truth or Consequences 91 67 84 66 / 10 30 30 40 Silver City 84 61 76 61 / 20 40 60 50 Deming 90 67 82 65 / 20 40 50 50 Lordsburg 91 67 83 66 / 10 30 50 50 West El Paso Metro 86 69 83 68 / 40 60 70 50 Dell City 82 66 85 66 / 60 50 40 30 Fort Hancock 82 67 84 67 / 70 80 70 50 Loma Linda 78 64 76 63 / 40 60 60 40 Fabens 83 68 82 68 / 50 70 70 50 Santa Teresa 85 67 82 66 / 40 60 60 50 White Sands HQ 87 68 82 68 / 30 40 50 40 Jornada Range 88 67 81 66 / 20 30 40 40 Hatch 91 67 82 66 / 20 30 40 40 Columbus 88 67 80 66 / 20 40 60 60 Orogrande 86 67 82 66 / 30 40 50 40 Mayhill 72 54 71 54 / 40 40 50 40 Mescalero 76 53 72 53 / 30 20 40 30 Timberon 72 52 70 52 / 40 40 50 30 Winston 84 59 76 60 / 10 30 40 40 Hillsboro 89 63 81 63 / 20 30 40 40 Spaceport 90 66 82 64 / 20 30 40 40 Lake Roberts 84 57 77 57 / 30 30 50 50 Hurley 89 64 81 63 / 20 30 50 50 Cliff 91 61 87 61 / 30 30 50 50 Mule Creek 85 61 82 61 / 30 40 60 50 Faywood 89 64 79 63 / 20 30 50 50 Animas 91 66 82 65 / 20 30 50 60 Hachita 88 65 78 64 / 20 40 60 60 Antelope Wells 88 64 78 63 / 30 50 80 80 Cloverdale 85 62 76 61 / 20 40 70 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && $$ 30/29/30
Office: HGX FXUS64 KHGX 161121 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 621 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 .AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]... MVFR ceilings CLL area and possible MVFR fog LBX area early this morning will lift/dissipate after sunrise. VFR the rest of the day anticipated for all TAF sites with S to SE winds around 5 to 10 knots. Any SHRA/TSRA development today should stay west of the TAF locations. For now, staying VFR tonight through Wednesday morning, but we might need to monitor for possible MVFR ceiling formation. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 327 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022/... .SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday Night]... Heat will be the main weather feature through midweek as mid/upper level ridging takes control. Generally expecting partly cloudy skies today (mainly high clouds associated with the now west Texas area low pressure system) with high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 90s near/along the coast and upper 90s to low 100s near/north of the I-10 corridor. Heat index values will be elevated but should for the most part stay under advisory levels. Cannot totally rule out some isolated storm development (already seeing a couple showers pop up near Matagorda Bay), and it still looks like locations near/ around Matagorda Bay and the Jackson/Matagorda/Wharton counties area should be the main focus region. Tonight looks quiet and mostly clear with lows ranging from the mid to upper 70s inland to the low to mid 80s along the coast. With abundant sunshine in place on Wednesday, it looks like high temperatures will be a couple degrees warmer for most locations, and little to no rain can be expected. It is possible that a Heat Advisory might be needed, but remember to take all heat safety precautions even if there is no Advisory in effect. 42 .LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]... A weak front will be pushing through Texas on Thursday and reach the coast by sunset, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms with it. Southwesterly flow and a slightly slower FROPA will give temperatures a little bit longer to climb and should reach the upper 90s to near 100 for most locations on Thursday. However, drier dewpoints from this SW flow will keep heat index values below heat advisory criteria. This front is expected to stall near the coast through Saturday and rain chances will range from 30-60% each day with activity peaking in the late afternoon due to daytime heating. However, increased cloud cover and rain cooled air should keep temperatures in the low to mid 90s rather than the triple digits. By Sunday, this front will begin to dissipate and push east, but a surge in PWs from deep tropical moisture associated with an inverted trough/coastal low south of Brownsville will keep rain chances near 20-40% on Sunday and Monday. Walts .MARINE... High pressure overhead through Wednesday will bring gentle to moderate onshore flow and isolated showers in the morning and afternoon. By Thursday, a weak front will push south and stall near the coast through Saturday. This will bring higher rain chances throughout the day and increased wind speeds and wave heights. By Sunday, the front begins to push out, but a surge in moisture from the Gulf will keep rain chances high through early next week. Walts .CLIMATE... For the period August 1-15... College Station's average temperature of 89.7 degrees is 3.7 degrees above normal and is their 3rd warmest on record (1st place is 91.5 degrees in 2011). Records date back to 1889. Houston's average temperature of 86.4 degrees is 0.4 degrees above normal and is their 24th warmest on record (1st place is 90.5 degrees in 2011). Records date back to 1889. Houston Hobby's average temperature of 86.6 degrees is 0.8 degrees above normal and is their 13th warmest on record (1st place is 89.0 degrees in 2011). Records date back to 1930. Galveston's average temperature of 87.7 degrees is 1.7 degrees above normal and is their 5th warmest on record (1st place is 88.8 degrees in 2011). Records date back to 1874. Palacios's average temperature of 87.1 degrees is 1.1 degrees above normal and is their 5th warmest on record (1st place is 88.8 degrees in 2019). Records date back to 1943. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 101 78 102 79 101 / 10 0 0 10 50 Houston (IAH) 99 78 101 78 100 / 20 0 10 10 50 Galveston (GLS) 94 84 97 85 95 / 10 0 10 0 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$
Office: LUB FXUS64 KLUB 161108 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 608 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 .AVIATION... VFR and dry conditions prevail with light SW winds backing SE this afternoon. Late tonight, a weak cold front will usher in light N-NE winds. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022/ SHORT TERM... Cirrus continued to spill over all of our area early this morning well north of a tropical low traversing the Big Bend. As this low continues drifting west today, moist southeasterly upper tropospheric flow will make for an abundance of high clouds over the South Plains. Beneath this SW flow, a H5 high still parked over the TX Panhandle looks to keep mid-level subsidence intact for much of the daytime. This stability could be compromised later this evening and overnight as a weak cold front enters our Panhandle counties accompanied by PWATs improving to around 1". However, CAMs and operational models suggest very little if any deep convection can emerge in this still largely stable environment, so NBM's PoPs tonight across our N-NW counties were trimmed accordingly. Farther south meanwhile, there is a very small window for a rogue shower or storm to graze Yoakum County around peak heating thanks to a moist ribbon at H7 tracking westward. This chance however looks too conditional for mention measurable rain chances, especially as the brunt of H7 moistening tracks SW of our domain. Later tonight, the weak cold front should make steady progress through the South Plains after midnight with little/no fanfare before departing our southern zones toward daybreak. The mid-level ridge will be directly atop the CWA late tonight which does not bode well for precip chances much beyond the southern Panhandle. Highs today will be a few degrees less than Monday thanks in large part to modestly cooler 850mb temps and also more high clouds. LONG TERM... The surface boundary layer will stabilize quickly behind the surface cold front exiting to the south of our CWA toward the I20 corridor early Wednesday morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible later in the day into the evening hours where convective instability is able to recover enough to tap into PWATs around 1.5". The best surface moisture convergence lines up across SE New Mexico in the wake of the tropical wave plodding through northern Old Mexico. Daytime highs, generally in the upper 80s/low 90s, will hover around the progged convective temperatures on the Caprock. Overall there is meager thermal instability aloft and weak flow. Any showers or storms will be short lived, pulse up and down, then propagate along subsequent outflow boundaries, with best chances increasing the closer you get to the NM/TX line. Modest thetaE advection pushing north from the Permian Basin Wednesday night into Thursday will keep mentionable PoPs overnight into Thursday. A series of shortwave impulses working around the broad troughing to our east will help provide just enough instability aloft to keep showers and general thunderstorms going through Thursday morning into the early afternoon before the sharpest arm of baroclinic instability shifts south of our area and mid/upper level thickness' quickly increase and mid level dry air intrudes. Temperatures on Thursday will be the coolest since mid-June in the wake of expected rainfall and remnant cloud cover. Chance PoPs linger into Friday, with more pulse convection possible, but confidence is lower as H50 to H85 layer remains relatively dry. By Saturday the remnant energy and moisture from the tropical wave begins to get absorbed back to the north and east with the GFS depicting the most organized trough lifting from central New Mexico into northeast New Mexico Saturday afternoon and evening, bending the monsoon fetch in our favor. The ECMWF is a little slower with the progression of the trough working back to the northeast but eventually catches up by Sunday. Either way, late Saturday through Sunday and into early next week continues to signal the potential for some much needed, widespread rainfall. The current WPC 7 day QPF has our entire CWA above two inches, with most of that falling in the Saturday to early Tuesday time frame. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 99/99/93
Office: MAF FXUS64 KMAF 161050 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 550 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 WV imagery shows the upper low has crossed the river, w/QPE increasing over southern Terrell County. Biggest concerns over the next 12-18 hours will be flooding in the Big Bend Area/lower Trans Pecos. KDRT raob came in w/quite an impressive 2.4" PWAT, whereas KMAF has not picked up on the tropical AMS yet. Latest bias on KMAF 88-D is only 0.58...and has not recalculated lately due to a lack of n-pairs, which is not surprising considering the meager rainfall activity as of late. As this system is tropical, and especially given its distance from the radar, warm-rain processes are being overshot, and the radar is likely underestimating QPE. Indeed, KDFX radar has flipped bias to ~ 1.3. Once enough n-pairs are collected in the KMAF CWA as the low moves NNW, wouldn't be surprised to see KMAF bias flip to above 1 as well. That said, we'll keep the flood watch going, and throw in western Culberson County, given latest QPF/forecast track of the low. Increased cloud cover increasing from the SE today and Wednesday suggests a target of opportunity for highs a degree or two cooler than what the NBM is offering, and we'll adjust accordingly. This will keep highs this afternoon below- normal all but the NE zones, and closer to normal Wednesday. Precip overnight will shift west w/the low, w/plenty of cloud cover and a 35+kt LLJ keeping overnight mins above-normal. Isolated convection will be possible area-wide Wednesday, w/the trough forecast to be just west of the CWA, leaving a col of sorts over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Unfortunately, most areas east of the Pecos look to miss out on any appreciable amounts of rainfall. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 A shortwave trough will swing through the south-central plains mid- week, helping develop northwesterly to northerly flow aloft and bring a weak cold front into the area. This front looks to push into our northern zones and stall near the I-20 corridor for Thursday. Although it will be quite diffuse once here, model guidance continues to generate scattered thunderstorms along the front Thursday afternoon with the best chances stretching from southeast New Mexico through the eastern Permian Basin along with the higher terrain. Highest PoPs trend southward with the front Friday, now across the Trans Pecos for Friday. While thunderstorm development will be largely diurnally driven, with the added support of the main frontal boundary and other possible outflow boundaries, lesser PoPs will still continue into the evening/early overnight hours both Thursday and Friday evenings. Near-average temperatures will continue across much of the region through late week thanks to a lack of upper level ridging with temperatures possibly running even a few degrees cooler north of the cold front and where precipitation occurs. Another disturbance will be moving through the Rockies as we move into this weekend which may send another front through and bring more storm chances to the area. The GFS and ECMWF disagree in the strength/placement of this shortwave so plenty of uncertainty exists regarding PoPs and temperatures in the far extended. For now, will still ride close to NBM but still pulled down PoPs some for Sunday given the uncertainty. -Munyan && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 544 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 WV imagery shows the tropical low moving slowly NNW, bringing abundant rainfall to the lower Trans Pecos. This has brought -SHRA and LIFR cigs to KFST for the past few hours. As this system continues moving NNW, forecast soundings still call for prevailing -SHRA and IFR cigs KPEQ, and MVFR KINK/KCNM/KMAF later today. We'll hold off on a mention of SHRA at those three sites attm. Only KHOB looks to scrape through unscathed, and will remain VFR through the end of the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 92 73 95 72 / 10 10 10 30 Carlsbad 83 68 89 69 / 50 40 30 30 Dryden 82 72 89 72 / 80 20 20 10 Fort Stockton 81 70 89 69 / 80 20 30 10 Guadalupe Pass 71 65 78 65 / 70 50 40 30 Hobbs 85 68 91 68 / 30 20 20 40 Marfa 75 62 81 60 / 90 60 60 30 Midland Intl Airport 89 72 94 72 / 20 10 20 30 Odessa 88 73 94 73 / 30 10 20 30 Wink 86 71 93 72 / 50 20 20 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flood Watch through this evening for Central Brewster County- Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Pecos-Presidio Valley-Terrell-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor. Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Central Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Lower Brewster County-Marfa Plateau- Pecos-Presidio Valley-Terrell. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...44
Office: SJT FXUS64 KSJT 161113 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 613 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Upper low moving west into the Big Bend region this morning will continue moving west today. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm are possible in Crockett county today, mainly this morning. However, left mention of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the western half of the Crockett, as daytime heating may allow development of a few storms. Rainfall amounts will be generally 1/10 inch or less. Otherwise warm conditions will prevail today. While temperatures in Crockett county may only rise into the lower 90s due to cloud cover, highs in the upper 90s to 100 are expected elsewhere, with the hottest readings in the Big Country. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 As we move into the second half of the week, the upper level ridge that has had a tight grip on our weather most of this summer may weaken some over our area. This will be due to an upper level trough currently over the northeastern U. S. expanding westward as shortwave energy digs south into the western side of the trough. At the same time, a weak cold frontal boundary will move south into the area, potentially as early as Wednesday night for the Big Country area. Although it will be weak, the front will act as a focus for showers and storms to develop off of, as shortwave energy also moves through in northwest flow aloft. Although there will be several periods with a Slight Chance for isolated to scattered storms, the best chance appears to be Thursday as the front makes progress through most of the CWA. There will be lingering chances into Friday as the front stalls just south of I-10 before becoming diffuse, and southerly flow returns. Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be a few degrees cooler with highs from the upper 80s to mid 90s. Expect mainly dry conditions through the weekend, with temperatures warming back into the mid/upper 90s for most areas. Both the GFS and ECMWF show weak upper level troughing over Texas early next week, which may result in another chance for showers and thunderstorms as well as cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 556 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Occasional MVFR stratus is expected at KSOA and KJCT through 16Z. Otherwise VFR next 24 hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 98 77 99 72 / 0 0 10 30 San Angelo 98 74 99 75 / 10 10 10 20 Junction 96 72 99 73 / 10 0 0 10 Brownwood 99 75 100 74 / 0 0 10 30 Sweetwater 97 75 98 72 / 0 0 10 30 Ozona 91 71 94 72 / 20 10 10 10 Brady 96 73 99 74 / 0 0 10 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...04
Office: FWD FXUS64 KFWD 161041 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 541 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: No significant changes to the forecast through Wednesday. Another hot and dry day is expected today with highs at or just above 100 degrees. We've still got a fairly thick cirrus canopy overhead from the disturbance near the Big Bend, but this should thin out through the morning hours. Storm chances will increase by Wednesday afternoon as a weak front slides south of the Red River, but not before temperatures soar ahead of the front into the 102-104 degree range. Dunn && Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Wednesday/ Water vapor imagery shows an upper disturbance over the Big Bend undercutting stronger ridging to the north. High level cloud cover from this feature is spreading well north into North Texas and southern Oklahoma and these will likely linger for a good part of the day. All of the precipitation with this disturbance will remain well to our south through Tuesday. Ridging will remain in place across the Southern Plains today and will help keep us hot and dry with temperatures in the 99-102 degree range. Mixing should be adequate enough to allow dewpoints to fall into the lower 60s, keeping heat indices in check. On Wednesday, a disturbance riding around the periphery of the upper ridge will help send a cold front southward through the Southern Plains. This frontal boundary will approach the Red River by midday. Ahead of the front, low level winds will become light southwest and warming ahead of the boundary may push temperatures into the 102-104 degree range across a good chunk of North Texas. As the front approaches the I-20 corridor by early evening, a few thunderstorms are expected to develop so we'll have 20-30% PoPs in this area. Modest mid level flow could support a few organized updrafts with storms capable of producing damaging winds. This activity should diminish with loss of afternoon heating. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 332 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022/ /Thursday Through Early Next Week/ At long last, we transition to a wetter pattern, and we didn't have to wait until the fall rainy season for it to happen. By midweek, the semi-permanent ridge that has been anchored over the Southern Plains will have re-established itself over the Intermountain West. This will result in a period of northwesterly flow through the Plains, helping Wednesday's front to move deeper into Central Texas on Thursday. PoPs will have a similar southward shift, bringing a temporary end to rain chances along and north of the I-20 corridor. The proximity of the 850mb front will maintain the potential for some strong storms within our Central Texas counties, even after northerly surface winds ensue. Weakening shear should diminish the severe potential, but the resulting slow-moving cells within rich moisture profiles will be capable of heavy rainfall. Even where rain doesn't fall on Thursday, lingering cloud cover and low-level cold advection will likely cap daytime temperatures in the 80s. For much of the region (including the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex), this would be the first sub-90F day since early June. Though rain chances will linger south of the I-20 corridor on Friday with the retreating frontal boundary, the August sun will re-emerge. This should allow the entire region to reach the 90s on Friday afternoon with a continued warming trend into the upcoming weekend. Guidance begins to diverge thereafter, but a majority of extended solutions favor negative height anomalies in the mid levels. This mid-latitude troughing would mean below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation as the final full week of August begins. 25 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the period although a SCT/BKN250 cirrus plume associated with the disturbance over the Big Bend will continue to stream across North Texas for a few more hours before thinning out. South flow will prevail through tonight although it will be variable between 150-220 degrees periodically. A cold front will approach the area on Wednesday afternoon with winds veering to the southwest ahead of it during the morning hours. We'll show a wind shift to 32010kt by 17Z in the extended portion of the DFW TAF, but this timing may be adjusted by a few hours over the next few issuances. We'll also be monitoring the potential for some afternoon thunderstorms on Wednesday into the evening hours. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 102 83 102 76 89 / 0 0 30 30 30 Waco 102 80 104 77 92 / 0 0 10 20 40 Paris 102 77 98 71 86 / 0 5 40 30 30 Denton 102 79 101 74 88 / 0 0 20 30 20 McKinney 101 79 101 72 87 / 0 0 30 30 20 Dallas 101 83 102 76 89 / 0 0 30 30 30 Terrell 102 80 102 74 89 / 0 0 40 40 30 Corsicana 101 81 102 76 89 / 0 0 20 30 40 Temple 100 76 102 76 93 / 0 0 5 20 50 Mineral Wells 103 77 103 72 89 / 0 0 20 30 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$