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Office: RLX

FXUS61 KRLX 110645
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
245 AM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and isolated storms linger this morning. A welcome dry
reprieve is expected later this week and the weekend. Unsettled
but not hazardous weather expected for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 220 AM Thursday...

A cold front is slowly sinking south through the area at
present, currently located just south of the Ohio River. The
chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
along and south of the front through the rest of the overnight.
Some brief, locally heavy rainfall still remains possible, but
not expecting much in terms of additional water issues to
result from this. Have updated PoPs and cloud cover to represent
the latest trends. Additionally, have inserted patchy fog
into the forecast for many of the valleys across the region for
this morning. Fog coverage will be more widespread where
significant clearing takes place. This should mainly be across
southeast Ohio.

Some isolated lingering high water issues will be possible
this morning from prior heavy rainfall last evening.

As of 1030 PM Wednesday...

The POP forecast was actually in decent shape as of 10pm, so
generally let that ride with only minor tweaks. Overall the bulk
of lingering precip will transition to the higher terrain
overnight, with general clearing behind the front expected. Have
dropped the Flood Watch as the heaviest rain is ended, so not
expecting new FFWs the rest of the night, with lingering
warnings gradually dropping throughout the night.

As of 142 PM Wednesday...

A quasi stationary frontal boundary remains oriented west to east
across the area through early tonight. In the absence of upper level
forcing, expect just isolated to scattered showers or storms to
develop this afternoon and evening. The front drifts further south
overnight, keeping chances for precipitation along and south of the
aforementioned boundary. Meanwhile, a new cold front pushes south
Thursday morning, pushing any lingering showers out of the area by
mid morning.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through 10 PM for the lowlands
and until midnight for the mountains. The atmosphere remains very
wet today, with diurnal heating, differential heating boundaries,
and orographic effects acting as low level forcing. With PWATs
around 2 inches, heavy downpours or repetitive storms over the same
areas could produce flash flooding.

Models suggest a low stratus deck will develop across most of WV
overnight tonight. Areas of fog will be possible, although could be
suppressed by cloud cover. Any fog will dissipate by 13Z, and low
stratus will lift by 15Z Thursday.

Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s lowlands, into the lower
60s northeast mountains and extreme northern sections. Highs on
Thursday will generally be in the lower 80s lowlands, ranging
into the mid 60s highest elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 PM Wednesday...

Secondary cold frontal passage will be ongoing at the start of
the period. Lingering showers will be waning Friday morning as
influencing high pressure drops down from Canada and the Great
Lakes. Dry weather and cooler temperatures spells a Chamber of
Commerce start to the weekend as the high maintains residence
over the Ohio Valley. Abundant sunshine will reflect a beautiful
mid-August Friday and Saturday with little to no interference
from disturbances aloft. A relief from high dew points will also
ensue. Dense valley fog could be likely for Saturday morning as
low temperatures drop into the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 PM Wednesday...

Increased cloudiness on Sunday will denote the end of our
brief, albeit much welcomed, dry weather as shortwave energy
reinvigorates an upper level trough settling into the eastern
portions of the country. Global models are also coming more on
board with slight chance POPs for the end of the weekend
compared to a much drier solution only days ago. This will then
be followed by more unsettled weather for the work week with
lobes of weak disturbances impeding on the area and tapping into
the returning low level moisture to create diurnally driven
showers and storms. Temperatures look to hold steady just below
their climatological norm through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 AM Thursday...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remain possible for
the rest of the overnight along/south of a cold front moving
through the region currently. Brief IFR/LIFR VSBY restrictions
are possible in heavier showers or any thunderstorms.
Additionally, LIFR/IFR/MVFR CIGs will be widespread through the
overnight in low stratus, with the exception being at PKB. Some
fog may also develop, particuarly further north/west at PKB
where clearing takes place. Any fog that forms should dissipate
by ~13Z.

Shower and isolated storm chances linger after dawn until ~
noon across the far south at BKW, with all other terminals
remaining dry. Clearing quickly takes place behind the front,
with most sites returning to VFR by late morning. BKW may take
until mid afternoon for MVFR CIGs to lift.

A FEW-SCT Cu field will develop starting late morning, with
cloud bases generally 020-040 AGL, but should pose no aviation
concerns. A secondary weak cold front will move through this
evening into the overnight, and could provide for an isolated
shower here and there. This has been left out of the TAFs for
the time being due to the highly isolated nature.

Light and variable flow this morning becomes northwest and
light during the day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium through noon, then high for the rest
of the TAF period.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief IFR/LIFR VSBY restrictions are
possible in heavier showers or any thunderstorms this morning.
Timing of CIG restrictions this morning could vary from the
TAFs. Fog may develop at PKB depending on how much clearing
occurs.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 08/11/22
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    L    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in valley fog Saturday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FK/MEK/GW
NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...GW