HYSPLIT Archived Smoke Forecast Verifications

Individual Smoke Shapefile Matching Results for day 07

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Below are the results of today's smoke analysis and yesterday's smoke forecast for today (if available). Shown in each table are the plume shapefile areas of HYSPLIT and HMS, their overlap, the percent of each shapefile overlapped, and the Figure of Merit in Space (FMS) percentage for each HYSPLIT shapefile that overlaid some portion of the HMS shapefile.

The Area Weighted Mean FMS

Area Weighted Mean FMS = (HMS Area * FMS) / (sum of HMS Area)
and the average FMS

Average FMS = (sum of FMS / number of shapefiles matched)
and the daily FMS

Daily FMS = (100 * sum of intersections / sum of unions)
are shown at the bottom of each table.

HYSPLIT 24hr Analysis Valid Today

HYSPLIT Analysis (1 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	Y	2	289602	4151	4151	289602	1.4	100.0	1.43
2	Y	3	289602	3611	3611	289602	1.2	100.0	1.25
3	Y	6	308555	17441	13232	312764	4.3	75.9	4.23
4	Y	9	517790	703200	83326	1137664	16.1	11.8	7.32
5	Y	13	275722	720630	52828	943524	19.2	7.3	5.60
6	Y	7	101689	16502	12516	105675	12.3	75.8	11.84
7	Y	2	177869	689674	16601	850943	9.3	2.4	1.95
8	N		897	3408	464	3841	51.7	13.6	12.08
9	N		854	3408	838	3424	98.2	24.6	24.49
10	Y	3	289602	2749	2749	289602	0.9	100.0	0.95
11	Y	5	308555	14920	13605	309870	4.4	91.2	4.39
12	Y	11	517790	726182	82211	1161761	15.9	11.3	7.08
13	Y	15	275722	731217	47994	958944	17.4	6.6	5.00
14	Y	7	101689	114123	11345	204467	11.2	9.9	5.55
15	N		177869	711655	15177	874347	8.5	2.1	1.74
16	N		897	4519	672	4744	74.9	14.9	14.17
17	N		854	4519	853	4520	99.9	18.9	18.88
18	N		281	9017	1	9297	0.5	0.0	0.01
19	N		281	6028	281	6028	100.0	4.7	4.67
20	N		283	706	243	746	86.1	34.5	32.64
21	N		283	647	228	702	80.6	35.3	32.50
22	Y	2	1368	2038	346	3059	25.3	17.0	11.31
23	N		1368	2450	549	3270	40.1	22.4	16.78
24	N		1270	844	364	1750	28.6	43.1	20.77
25	Y	2	3990	3077	977	6090	24.5	31.7	16.04
26	N		536	1312	292	1556	54.4	22.3	18.77
27	N		19820	83903	15032	88692	75.8	17.9	16.95
28	N		1270	1248	554	1964	43.6	44.4	28.21
29	Y	2	3990	4947	2156	6780	54.0	43.6	31.80
30	Y	2	536	2944	418	3063	77.9	14.2	13.64
31	N		19820	73445	16091	77174	81.2	21.9	20.85
32	N		421	7245	24	7642	5.7	0.3	0.31
33	Y	2	2039	7648	947	8740	46.4	12.4	10.84
34	N		421	1095	59	1457	14.0	5.4	4.06
35	Y	2	2039	11219	1260	11998	61.8	11.2	10.50
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 4.79				Mean FMS = 11.96			Daily FMS = 5.03

HYSPLIT Analysis (5 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		308555	3725	3725	308555	1.2	100.0	1.21
2	Y	3	517790	9943	9943	517790	1.9	100.0	1.92
3	Y	3	275722	9943	2986	282678	1.1	30.0	1.06
4	N		101689	1973	1973	101689	1.9	100.0	1.94
5	Y	2	177869	9925	3753	184041	2.1	37.8	2.04
6	N		897	1973	311	2559	34.7	15.8	12.16
7	N		854	1973	697	2131	81.6	35.3	32.72
8	N		308555	4661	4661	308555	1.5	100.0	1.51
9	Y	3	517790	10859	10859	517790	2.1	100.0	2.10
10	Y	3	275722	10859	3461	283119	1.3	31.9	1.22
11	N		101689	2568	2568	101689	2.5	100.0	2.53
12	Y	2	177869	9695	4240	183324	2.4	43.7	2.31
13	N		897	2568	430	3035	47.9	16.7	14.16
14	N		854	2568	816	2605	95.6	31.8	31.34
15	N		281	1820	164	1937	58.1	9.0	8.44
16	N		281	1383	182	1482	64.8	13.2	12.30
17	N		283	259	147	395	51.8	56.6	37.06
18	N		1368	495	99	1763	7.3	20.1	5.63
19	N		1368	301	204	1465	14.9	67.9	13.95
20	N		1270	402	214	1458	16.9	53.2	14.69
21	Y	3	3990	727	110	4607	2.7	15.1	2.38
22	Y	2	536	650	230	957	42.8	35.4	24.02
23	Y	2	19820	35731	11842	43709	59.7	33.1	27.09
24	N		1270	716	348	1637	27.4	48.7	21.28
25	Y	3	3990	727	220	4497	5.5	30.2	4.89
26	Y	2	536	936	200	1273	37.3	21.4	15.70
27	N		19820	40690	12410	48100	62.6	30.5	25.80
28	Y	3	2039	1263	420	2882	20.6	33.3	14.59
29	Y	2	2039	993	389	2644	19.1	39.1	14.70
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 2.16				Mean FMS = 12.09			Daily FMS = 2.66

HYSPLIT Analysis (20 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		308555	125	125	308555	0.0	100.0	0.04
2	Y	5	517790	1803	1803	517790	0.3	100.0	0.35
3	N		275722	141	141	275722	0.1	100.0	0.05
4	Y	3	101689	415	415	101689	0.4	100.0	0.41
5	Y	4	177869	1018	440	178447	0.2	43.2	0.25
6	Y	2	897	242	94	1045	10.5	38.9	8.99
7	Y	3	854	415	213	1056	25.0	51.4	20.20
8	Y	2	308555	395	395	308555	0.1	100.0	0.13
9	Y	6	517790	2748	2748	517790	0.5	100.0	0.53
10	Y	2	275722	22	22	275722	0.0	100.0	0.01
11	Y	3	101689	500	500	101689	0.5	100.0	0.49
12	Y	3	177869	1344	1265	177948	0.7	94.1	0.71
13	N		897	274	141	1031	15.7	51.3	13.66
14	Y	3	854	500	268	1085	31.4	53.7	24.73
15	N		281	529	83	726	29.6	15.8	11.48
16	N		281	471	72	681	25.7	15.3	10.62
17	N		1368	85	39	1414	2.9	46.4	2.79
18	N		536	21	21	537	3.9	98.2	3.92
19	Y	3	19820	9348	5577	23590	28.1	59.7	23.64
20	N		1270	217	168	1318	13.3	77.6	12.78
21	Y	2	19820	10684	6891	23614	34.8	64.5	29.18
22	N		2039	110	3	2147	0.2	2.9	0.15
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 0.68				Mean FMS = 7.50			Daily FMS = 0.76

HYSPLIT Analysis (100 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		517790	139	139	517790	0.0	100.0	0.03
2	Y	3	517790	183	183	517790	0.0	100.0	0.04
3	Y	2	177869	26	26	177869	0.0	100.0	0.01
4	Y	5	19820	551	332	20040	1.7	60.1	1.66
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 0.05				Mean FMS = 0.43			Daily FMS = 0.06

HYSPLIT 24hr Forecast Valid Today

HYSPLIT +24h Forecast (1 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	Y	10	289602	2900	2880	289622	1.0	99.3	0.99
2	Y	3	289602	3079	3079	289602	1.1	100.0	1.06
3	Y	6	308555	17849	15164	311240	4.9	85.0	4.87
4	Y	11	517790	687408	74424	1130774	14.4	10.8	6.58
5	Y	10	275722	705492	47961	933253	17.4	6.8	5.14
6	Y	5	101689	22097	20322	103463	20.0	92.0	19.64
7	N		177869	661110	10477	828501	5.9	1.6	1.26
8	N		897	19699	54	20542	6.1	0.3	0.27
9	N		854	19699	253	20300	29.7	1.3	1.25
10	Y	3	289602	2816	2816	289602	1.0	100.0	0.97
11	Y	5	308555	18302	15306	311551	5.0	83.6	4.91
12	Y	12	517790	697169	73842	1141117	14.3	10.6	6.47
13	Y	14	275722	712098	46994	940826	17.0	6.6	5.00
14	Y	6	101689	148990	19223	231456	18.9	12.9	8.31
15	N		177869	668628	8059	838438	4.5	1.2	0.96
16	N		897	21128	160	21865	17.9	0.8	0.73
17	N		854	21128	335	21647	39.2	1.6	1.55
18	N		281	24908	272	24917	96.6	1.1	1.09
19	N		281	25358	281	25358	100.0	1.1	1.11
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 4.59				Mean FMS = 3.80			Daily FMS = 4.40

HYSPLIT +24h Forecast (5 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		308555	2348	2348	308555	0.8	100.0	0.76
2	N		517790	145	115	517820	0.0	79.2	0.02
3	Y	3	101689	2325	2325	101689	2.3	100.0	2.29
4	N		897	2140	18	3019	2.0	0.8	0.58
5	N		854	2140	175	2819	20.4	8.2	6.19
6	N		308555	2539	2539	308555	0.8	100.0	0.82
7	N		517790	68	68	517790	0.0	100.0	0.01
8	Y	2	101689	3027	3027	101689	3.0	100.0	2.98
9	N		897	2959	73	3783	8.1	2.5	1.93
10	N		854	2959	165	3648	19.4	5.6	4.53
11	N		281	533	105	710	37.2	19.6	14.74
12	N		281	50	50	281	17.6	100.0	17.60
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 0.57				Mean FMS = 4.37			Daily FMS = 0.59

HYSPLIT +24h Forecast (20 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		308555	30	30	308555	0.0	100.0	0.01
2	Y	3	101689	205	205	101689	0.2	100.0	0.20
3	N		854	125	60	919	7.0	48.0	6.54
4	N		308555	0	0	308555	0.0	100.0	0.00
5	Y	2	101689	101	101	101689	0.1	100.0	0.10
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 0.05				Mean FMS = 1.37			Daily FMS = 0.05