HYSPLIT Archived Smoke Forecast Verifications

Individual Smoke Shapefile Matching Results for day 12

< PREVIOUS DAY'S FORECAST RETURN NEXT DAY'S FORECAST >

Below are the results of today's smoke analysis and yesterday's smoke forecast for today (if available). Shown in each table are the plume shapefile areas of HYSPLIT and HMS, their overlap, the percent of each shapefile overlapped, and the Figure of Merit in Space (FMS) percentage for each HYSPLIT shapefile that overlaid some portion of the HMS shapefile.

The Area Weighted Mean FMS

Area Weighted Mean FMS = (HMS Area * FMS) / (sum of HMS Area)
and the average FMS

Average FMS = (sum of FMS / number of shapefiles matched)
and the daily FMS

Daily FMS = (100 * sum of intersections / sum of unions)
are shown at the bottom of each table.

HYSPLIT 24hr Analysis Valid Today

HYSPLIT Analysis (1 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		1011	1865	541	2335	53.5	29.0	23.17
2	N		1011	2919	761	3169	75.3	26.1	24.02
3	N		1011	2248	841	2419	83.1	37.4	34.75
4	N		62	1754	4	1812	7.1	0.3	0.24
5	N		681	1459	63	2077	9.2	4.3	3.03
6	N		1011	1853	459	2405	45.4	24.8	19.07
7	N		62	2739	23	2777	38.0	0.9	0.84
8	N		681	1233	171	1743	25.2	13.9	9.83
9	N		1617	712	569	1759	35.2	80.0	32.38
10	N		1011	1856	183	2684	18.1	9.9	6.83
11	N		681	1806	346	2141	50.8	19.2	16.16
12	N		1617	832	546	1903	33.8	65.6	28.71
13	N		610	6767	1	7375	0.2	0.0	0.01
14	N		425	6767	176	7016	41.5	2.6	2.51
15	N		190	702	54	838	28.6	7.7	6.47
16	N		245	673	204	714	83.4	30.3	28.61
17	N		775	624	463	936	59.8	74.2	49.47
18	N		610	599	14	1194	2.3	2.3	1.17
19	N		425	7052	50	7427	11.8	0.7	0.68
20	N		190	1712	79	1822	41.7	4.6	4.35
21	N		4436	1066	564	4938	12.7	52.9	11.42
22	Y	2	3811	2336	1246	4901	32.7	53.4	25.43
23	N		795	732	113	1414	14.2	15.4	7.99
24	N		1946	624	157	2414	8.1	25.2	6.51
25	Y	2	1709	1593	487	2814	28.5	30.6	17.32
26	N		245	536	13	768	5.2	2.4	1.64
27	Y	2	369	1492	260	1601	70.3	17.4	16.22
28	N		433	884	421	896	97.3	47.7	47.04
29	N		1011	552	427	1136	42.2	77.3	37.56
30	N		475	925	8	1392	1.8	0.9	0.61
31	N		137	925	48	1015	34.7	5.1	4.69
32	N		336	785	287	834	85.4	36.6	34.44
33	N		4436	1204	781	4859	17.6	64.9	16.07
34	Y	2	3811	2723	1733	4802	45.5	63.6	36.09
35	N		795	1233	141	1886	17.8	11.5	7.49
36	N		1946	1788	512	3222	26.3	28.7	15.91
37	N		1709	1520	1134	2095	66.4	74.6	54.12
38	N		600	682	92	1190	15.4	13.5	7.75
39	N		245	970	1	1214	0.4	0.1	0.07
40	N		617	285	212	690	34.4	74.4	30.74
41	Y	2	369	1719	53	2035	14.5	3.1	2.63
42	N		433	1170	433	1170	100.0	37.0	37.01
43	N		1011	938	606	1344	59.9	64.5	45.07
44	N		475	982	38	1418	8.0	3.9	2.68
45	N		610	623	176	1057	28.8	28.2	16.60
46	N		425	627	188	864	44.3	30.0	21.80
47	N		336	1098	297	1137	88.3	27.0	26.10
48	N		236	727	205	758	86.6	28.1	26.97
49	N		4436	1375	885	4926	20.0	64.4	17.98
50	N		3811	4138	2537	5413	66.6	61.3	46.88
51	Y	2	795	4681	36	5440	4.5	0.8	0.66
52	Y	2	1946	5111	1188	5869	61.0	23.2	20.25
53	N		671	662	309	1024	46.0	46.6	30.14
54	N		160	466	0	626	0.0	0.0	0.00
55	N		600	938	9	1529	1.6	1.0	0.61
56	N		1713	972	788	1898	46.0	81.0	41.50
57	Y	2	1774	1279	686	2367	38.7	53.6	28.99
58	N		324	4138	289	4173	89.2	7.0	6.93
59	N		396	2336	109	2623	27.5	4.7	4.15
60	N		617	6869	571	6915	92.6	8.3	8.26
61	N		369	6869	359	6880	97.2	5.2	5.21
62	Y	2	1011	1054	298	1768	29.5	28.2	16.85
63	N		475	2998	327	3146	68.9	10.9	10.40
64	N		236	1439	236	1439	100.0	16.4	16.42
65	N		4436	1338	980	4794	22.1	73.2	20.45
66	Y	2	3811	7603	2281	9133	59.8	30.0	24.97
67	Y	3	795	6644	102	7337	12.8	1.5	1.39
68	N		1946	4893	1412	5428	72.6	28.9	26.02
69	N		671	1557	495	1733	73.9	31.8	28.58
70	N		1100	360	287	1173	26.1	79.7	24.48
71	N		1713	4893	786	5820	45.9	16.1	13.50
72	N		1774	2710	1241	3243	69.9	45.8	38.26
73	Y	2	324	5551	144	5731	44.6	2.6	2.52
74	N		238	873	1	1110	0.4	0.1	0.08
75	N		305	6869	248	6926	81.4	3.6	3.58
76	N		396	4504	197	4704	49.6	4.4	4.18
77	N		535	544	166	912	31.1	30.6	18.24
78	N		1648	808	217	2238	13.2	26.9	9.69
79	N		281	630	103	808	36.7	16.4	12.77
80	N		1357	686	19	2024	1.4	2.8	0.93
81	N		541	873	449	964	83.0	51.5	46.57
82	N		1462	1339	792	2010	54.2	59.1	39.40
83	N		617	2820	9	3428	1.4	0.3	0.26
84	N		369	4540	339	4570	91.7	7.5	7.41
85	N		433	4540	105	4868	24.3	2.3	2.16
86	Y	2	1011	3539	195	4355	19.3	5.5	4.48
87	N		475	2297	275	2497	57.9	12.0	11.00
88	Y	2	4436	3502	1069	6869	24.1	30.5	15.57
89	Y	2	3811	6131	2266	7676	59.5	37.0	29.52
90	Y	2	795	1217	73	1939	9.2	6.0	3.76
91	N		1946	5660	1176	6430	60.4	20.8	18.29
92	Y	2	671	10835	487	11018	72.7	4.5	4.42
93	N		1100	1242	578	1764	52.5	46.5	32.75
94	N		1713	5660	848	6525	49.5	15.0	12.99
95	N		1774	3043	1380	3437	77.8	45.3	40.14
96	Y	2	324	6131	197	6258	60.8	3.2	3.15
97	N		305	4540	236	4608	77.5	5.2	5.12
98	N		535	545	263	817	49.1	48.2	32.16
99	N		1648	300	201	1747	12.2	66.9	11.48
100	N		281	1686	138	1829	49.0	8.2	7.53
101	Y	3	1357	5169	118	6408	8.7	2.3	1.84
102	N		251	944	67	1128	26.8	7.1	5.98
103	N		541	1811	484	1868	89.6	26.7	25.93
104	N		1462	1999	849	2612	58.1	42.5	32.49
105	N		168	1078	97	1149	57.9	9.0	8.47
106	N		488	747	112	1122	23.0	15.0	10.00
107	N		840	586	10	1416	1.2	1.8	0.73
108	N		617	4174	617	4174	100.0	14.8	14.79
109	Y	2	369	4840	85	5124	23.0	1.8	1.66
110	N		433	4839	126	5146	29.1	2.6	2.45
111	N		1011	1136	486	1661	48.1	42.8	29.28
112	N		475	1299	175	1598	37.0	13.5	10.98
113	Y	2	671	5256	290	5636	43.3	5.5	5.15
114	N		305	1	0	305	0.1	25.8	0.08
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 20.64				Mean FMS = 15.90			Daily FMS = 13.72

HYSPLIT Analysis (5 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		681	549	14	1216	2.0	2.5	1.14
2	N		62	1011	1	1071	2.0	0.1	0.11
3	N		681	504	64	1120	9.4	12.7	5.71
4	N		1617	405	377	1644	23.3	93.1	22.93
5	N		681	436	121	995	17.8	27.8	12.18
6	N		1617	335	286	1666	17.7	85.4	17.20
7	N		190	415	8	597	4.1	1.9	1.29
8	N		245	429	173	502	70.5	40.2	34.39
9	N		775	239	239	775	30.8	100.0	30.78
10	N		190	535	37	688	19.5	6.9	5.39
11	N		4436	388	273	4550	6.2	70.5	6.01
12	Y	2	3811	637	364	4085	9.5	57.0	8.90
13	N		795	445	38	1202	4.7	8.5	3.14
14	N		1946	239	59	2126	3.0	24.7	2.78
15	N		1709	0	0	1709	0.0	100.0	0.01
16	N		369	288	136	522	36.8	47.1	26.04
17	N		433	542	334	641	77.1	61.7	52.12
18	N		1011	115	115	1011	11.4	100.0	11.37
19	N		137	427	2	563	1.4	0.4	0.33
20	N		336	147	77	407	22.9	52.3	18.98
21	N		4436	311	291	4457	6.6	93.4	6.53
22	Y	2	3811	545	543	3813	14.2	99.7	14.24
23	N		795	666	19	1441	2.4	2.8	1.31
24	N		1946	519	7	2459	0.4	1.4	0.29
25	N		1709	172	163	1718	9.5	94.6	9.46
26	N		600	400	39	961	6.5	9.8	4.07
27	N		433	804	426	811	98.5	53.0	52.60
28	N		1011	387	281	1117	27.8	72.6	25.15
29	N		425	286	90	620	21.2	31.6	14.54
30	N		336	136	72	401	21.3	52.7	17.89
31	N		236	135	71	300	30.0	52.6	23.60
32	N		4436	215	197	4453	4.4	91.9	4.43
33	N		3811	2320	1629	4502	42.7	70.2	36.19
34	N		795	2320	24	3091	3.0	1.0	0.76
35	Y	2	1946	2503	150	4299	7.7	6.0	3.48
36	N		671	345	205	811	30.6	59.3	25.27
37	Y	2	1713	236	222	1727	13.0	94.1	12.87
38	Y	2	1774	186	120	1840	6.7	64.4	6.50
39	N		324	2320	240	2404	74.1	10.4	9.99
40	N		617	587	384	821	62.2	65.4	46.81
41	N		369	807	103	1073	28.0	12.8	9.64
42	N		475	21	21	475	4.5	100.0	4.53
43	N		236	439	156	520	65.9	35.5	29.98
44	N		4436	185	166	4455	3.7	89.7	3.72
45	Y	2	3811	1070	938	3943	24.6	87.7	23.78
46	N		795	290	11	1074	1.3	3.7	0.99
47	Y	2	1946	1175	237	2885	12.2	20.1	8.20
48	N		671	1043	351	1363	52.4	33.7	25.77
49	N		1100	0	0	1100	0.0	100.0	0.04
50	N		1713	489	354	1848	20.7	72.4	19.16
51	N		1774	1348	751	2371	42.3	55.7	31.67
52	N		324	290	84	530	26.1	29.1	15.94
53	N		305	807	38	1073	12.6	4.8	3.58
54	N		396	365	82	679	20.8	22.5	12.12
55	N		535	110	14	631	2.5	12.3	2.15
56	N		281	232	4	509	1.5	1.8	0.83
57	N		541	181	142	580	26.2	78.4	24.41
58	Y	2	1462	270	177	1555	12.1	65.7	11.42
59	N		617	578	342	853	55.4	59.2	40.08
60	N		369	18	12	375	3.2	66.6	3.16
61	N		475	186	79	582	16.7	42.6	13.65
62	N		4436	45	45	4436	1.0	100.0	1.01
63	N		3811	2249	1560	4500	40.9	69.4	34.66
64	N		1946	2249	436	3759	22.4	19.4	11.59
65	N		671	631	169	1133	25.1	26.7	14.88
66	N		1100	491	300	1291	27.3	61.1	23.24
67	N		1713	178	154	1737	9.0	86.5	8.85
68	N		1774	932	666	2039	37.6	71.5	32.68
69	N		324	37	37	324	11.5	100.0	11.53
70	N		535	111	78	568	14.5	70.1	13.67
71	N		281	242	9	515	3.1	3.6	1.72
72	N		251	403	21	634	8.4	5.2	3.34
73	N		541	602	295	848	54.5	49.0	34.77
74	Y	2	1462	584	329	1717	22.5	56.3	19.13
75	Y	2	617	543	333	827	54.0	61.4	40.34
76	N		671	477	100	1048	14.9	20.9	9.52
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 13.74				Mean FMS = 14.77			Daily FMS = 13.40

HYSPLIT Analysis (20 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		1617	58	58	1617	3.6	100.0	3.58
2	N		1617	0	0	1617	0.0	100.0	0.02
3	N		245	108	91	262	37.2	84.2	34.78
4	N		369	2	2	369	0.5	100.0	0.52
5	N		433	188	182	439	42.0	97.0	41.48
6	N		3811	111	111	3811	2.9	100.0	2.92
7	N		433	340	311	462	71.8	91.4	67.25
8	Y	2	3811	821	378	4254	9.9	46.0	8.87
9	N		795	516	0	1310	0.1	0.1	0.04
10	N		1946	305	0	2251	0.0	0.1	0.01
11	N		671	24	21	673	3.1	87.6	3.12
12	N		324	516	202	638	62.3	39.1	31.65
13	N		617	181	151	647	24.5	83.4	23.34
14	N		3811	0	0	3811	0.0	100.0	0.00
15	N		671	223	47	847	6.9	20.9	5.50
16	N		1713	15	15	1713	0.9	100.0	0.87
17	N		1774	110	90	1794	5.1	81.3	5.00
18	N		617	165	143	639	23.1	86.6	22.32
19	Y	2	3811	15	15	3811	0.4	100.0	0.38
20	N		1946	14	2	1958	0.1	17.9	0.13
21	N		671	109	0	779	0.0	0.1	0.02
22	N		541	5	5	541	0.9	100.0	0.93
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 5.07				Mean FMS = 11.49			Daily FMS = 5.33

HYSPLIT Analysis (100 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		324	74	70	329	21.5	93.3	21.13
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 21.13				Mean FMS = 21.13			Daily FMS = 21.13

HYSPLIT 24hr Forecast Valid Today

HYSPLIT +24h Forecast (1 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		1011	3033	16	4028	1.6	0.5	0.40
2	N		475	3033	475	3033	100.0	15.7	15.65
3	N		1011	2386	47	3350	4.7	2.0	1.42
4	N		475	2386	444	2417	93.5	18.6	18.36
5	N		1011	2342	99	3255	9.8	4.2	3.03
6	N		475	2342	367	2451	77.2	15.6	14.96
7	N		1011	2832	20	3823	2.0	0.7	0.52
8	N		475	2832	202	3105	42.5	7.1	6.50
9	N		1011	3198	49	4160	4.8	1.5	1.17
10	N		475	3198	26	3647	5.4	0.8	0.70
11	N		610	764	93	1281	15.2	12.1	7.23
12	N		425	5683	416	5692	97.9	7.3	7.31
13	N		336	5683	107	5913	31.7	1.9	1.81
14	N		1011	3214	8	4217	0.8	0.3	0.19
15	N		425	5532	370	5587	87.1	6.7	6.63
16	N		336	5532	5	5864	1.5	0.1	0.09
17	N		425	5644	270	5799	63.5	4.8	4.65
18	N		425	5584	132	5877	31.1	2.4	2.25
19	N		305	5397	33	5668	10.8	0.6	0.58
20	N		396	2029	17	2409	4.2	0.8	0.70
21	N		369	5497	2	5864	0.5	0.0	0.03
22	N		433	5497	84	5846	19.4	1.5	1.44
23	N		305	5497	138	5663	45.3	2.5	2.44
24	N		369	4982	30	5321	8.1	0.6	0.56
25	N		433	4982	220	5195	50.7	4.4	4.23
26	N		305	4982	217	5070	71.1	4.3	4.27
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 3.66				Mean FMS = 4.12			Daily FMS = 3.39