HYSPLIT Archived Smoke Forecast Verifications

Individual Smoke Shapefile Matching Results for day 23

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Below are the results of today's smoke analysis and yesterday's smoke forecast for today (if available). Shown in each table are the plume shapefile areas of HYSPLIT and HMS, their overlap, the percent of each shapefile overlapped, and the Figure of Merit in Space (FMS) percentage for each HYSPLIT shapefile that overlaid some portion of the HMS shapefile.

The Area Weighted Mean FMS

Area Weighted Mean FMS = (HMS Area * FMS) / (sum of HMS Area)
and the average FMS

Average FMS = (sum of FMS / number of shapefiles matched)
and the daily FMS

Daily FMS = (100 * sum of intersections / sum of unions)
are shown at the bottom of each table.

HYSPLIT 24hr Analysis Valid Today

HYSPLIT Analysis (1 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		469730	204	204	469730	0.0	100.0	0.04
2	N		321560	343	343	321560	0.1	100.0	0.11
3	Y	2	469730	1521	1521	469730	0.3	100.0	0.32
4	Y	2	321560	1435	1435	321560	0.4	100.0	0.45
5	N		469730	2058	2058	469730	0.4	100.0	0.44
6	Y	2	321560	3983	3915	321628	1.2	98.3	1.22
7	N		361286	2125	549	362862	0.2	25.8	0.15
8	Y	3	799591	6041	3945	801686	0.5	65.3	0.49
9	N		469730	4265	4265	469730	0.9	100.0	0.91
10	Y	3	321560	5965	5022	322503	1.6	84.2	1.56
11	N		3853	980	980	3853	25.4	100.0	25.43
12	N		361286	2728	728	363287	0.2	26.7	0.20
13	Y	3	799591	9467	6702	802356	0.8	70.8	0.84
14	N		1704	432	404	1732	23.7	93.6	23.35
15	Y	2	469730	6551	6551	469730	1.4	100.0	1.39
16	Y	3	321560	7191	6176	322575	1.9	85.9	1.91
17	N		1148	802	428	1521	37.3	53.5	28.17
18	Y	2	3853	1696	1696	3853	44.0	100.0	44.01
19	N		1704	990	658	2035	38.6	66.5	32.35
20	N		1095	1361	670	1786	61.2	49.2	37.50
21	N		213	1361	213	1361	100.0	15.6	15.63
22	N		1095	1571	609	2056	55.6	38.8	29.64
23	N		1310	777	620	1467	47.3	79.8	42.28
24	N		1310	503	83	1730	6.3	16.4	4.78
25	N		525	1406	266	1665	50.7	18.9	15.97
26	Y	2	1310	5643	416	6536	31.8	7.4	6.37
27	N		525	621	263	883	50.1	42.3	29.77
28	N		792	543	260	1074	32.9	48.0	24.24
29	N		3412	3227	1103	5536	32.3	34.2	19.92
30	Y	3	8919	9159	3257	14821	36.5	35.6	21.97
31	N		1310	1927	914	2323	69.8	47.4	39.36
32	N		3412	4308	1103	6618	32.3	25.6	16.67
33	N		379	553	86	846	22.7	15.6	10.19
34	Y	3	8919	11124	4160	15883	46.6	37.4	26.19
35	N		1310	2053	1050	2312	80.2	51.2	45.43
36	N		756	666	398	1024	52.7	59.8	38.92
37	N		1310	10381	1240	10451	94.7	11.9	11.86
38	Y	2	691	860	248	1303	35.9	28.8	19.03
39	N		756	193	193	756	25.6	100.0	25.59
40	Y	3	8711	2864	2103	9472	24.1	73.4	22.20
41	N		144	1120	80	1184	55.4	7.1	6.72
42	N		660	660	286	1034	43.3	43.3	27.63
43	Y	3	8711	3201	2655	9257	30.5	82.9	28.68
44	N		284	915	192	1007	67.5	21.0	19.05
45	N		144	1476	6	1614	4.1	0.4	0.36
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 0.97				Mean FMS = 16.65			Daily FMS = 1.09

HYSPLIT Analysis (5 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		469730	335	335	469730	0.1	100.0	0.07
2	N		321560	255	255	321560	0.1	100.0	0.08
3	Y	2	469730	32	32	469730	0.0	100.0	0.01
4	Y	3	321560	1491	1491	321560	0.5	100.0	0.46
5	N		361286	733	250	361769	0.1	34.1	0.07
6	Y	4	799591	827	827	799591	0.1	100.0	0.10
7	N		469730	390	390	469730	0.1	100.0	0.08
8	Y	2	321560	2441	2372	321629	0.7	97.2	0.74
9	N		3853	882	882	3853	22.9	100.0	22.88
10	N		361286	1268	355	362199	0.1	28.0	0.10
11	Y	2	799591	1658	1594	799654	0.2	96.2	0.20
12	N		1704	2	2	1704	0.1	100.0	0.10
13	Y	3	469730	700	700	469730	0.1	100.0	0.15
14	Y	2	321560	2691	2622	321629	0.8	97.5	0.82
15	N		1148	344	207	1285	18.0	60.2	16.11
16	N		3853	1221	1221	3853	31.7	100.0	31.69
17	N		1704	1	1	1704	0.1	100.0	0.05
18	N		1095	1083	599	1579	54.7	55.4	37.97
19	N		213	1083	213	1083	100.0	19.6	19.65
20	N		1095	869	449	1515	41.0	51.6	29.61
21	N		1310	364	364	1310	27.8	99.9	27.75
22	N		525	710	65	1170	12.3	9.1	5.53
23	N		1310	299	130	1479	10.0	43.5	8.82
24	N		525	41	22	544	4.1	52.6	3.97
25	N		792	179	143	827	18.1	80.1	17.30
26	N		3412	98	83	3427	2.4	85.4	2.43
27	N		8919	1688	1167	9440	13.1	69.1	12.36
28	N		1310	607	298	1619	22.7	49.1	18.39
29	N		3412	98	83	3427	2.4	85.4	2.43
30	N		379	242	36	585	9.6	15.0	6.21
31	Y	2	8919	1791	818	9892	9.2	45.7	8.27
32	N		1310	852	738	1423	56.4	86.7	51.88
33	N		756	433	320	869	42.4	73.9	36.86
34	N		1310	2155	1021	2444	77.9	47.4	41.77
35	N		691	384	124	950	18.0	32.4	13.10
36	N		8711	318	201	8827	2.3	63.4	2.28
37	N		144	346	48	441	33.8	14.0	10.99
38	N		660	101	76	685	11.4	74.9	11.02
39	N		8711	315	201	8825	2.3	63.7	2.28
40	N		284	165	29	420	10.2	17.6	6.92
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 0.35				Mean FMS = 11.29			Daily FMS = 0.37

HYSPLIT Analysis (20 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		321560	20	20	321560	0.0	100.0	0.01
2	N		799591	20	20	799591	0.0	100.0	0.00
3	Y	2	321560	366	366	321560	0.1	100.0	0.11
4	N		3853	585	585	3853	15.2	100.0	15.19
5	N		361286	116	25	361377	0.0	21.2	0.01
6	N		799591	116	116	799591	0.0	100.0	0.01
7	Y	2	321560	592	592	321560	0.2	100.0	0.18
8	N		3853	772	772	3853	20.0	100.0	20.04
9	N		1095	565	368	1292	33.6	65.1	28.47
10	N		213	565	147	631	69.0	26.0	23.29
11	N		1095	110	110	1095	10.0	99.9	10.02
12	N		1310	1	1	1310	0.1	100.0	0.06
13	N		756	117	116	757	15.3	98.9	15.26
14	N		1310	17	17	1310	1.3	100.0	1.32
15	N		691	65	6	750	0.9	9.4	0.82
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 0.11				Mean FMS = 7.65			Daily FMS = 0.11

HYSPLIT Analysis (100 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		3853	83	83	3853	2.1	100.0	2.14
2	N		3853	95	95	3853	2.5	100.0	2.46
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 2.30				Mean FMS = 2.30			Daily FMS = 2.30

HYSPLIT 24hr Forecast Valid Today

HYSPLIT +24h Forecast (1 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		1704	5155	1096	5763	64.3	21.3	19.01
2	Y	2	1704	6043	857	6890	50.3	14.2	12.43
3	N		1310	564	170	1704	13.0	30.2	9.98
4	N		1310	4291	216	5384	16.5	5.0	4.01
5	N		1310	7392	229	8473	17.5	3.1	2.70
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 10.28				Mean FMS = 9.63			Daily FMS = 9.10

HYSPLIT +24h Forecast (5 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		1704	807	596	1915	35.0	73.8	31.13
2	N		1704	499	431	1772	25.3	86.3	24.31
3	N		1310	91	27	1374	2.1	29.5	1.96
4	N		1310	467	97	1679	7.4	20.8	5.77
5	N		1310	397	41	1667	3.1	10.2	2.43
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 14.69				Mean FMS = 13.12			Daily FMS = 14.17

HYSPLIT +24h Forecast (20 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		1704	375	356	1723	20.9	94.9	20.65
2	N		1704	94	94	1704	5.5	100.0	5.49
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 13.07				Mean FMS = 13.07			Daily FMS = 13.11