HYSPLIT Archived Smoke Forecast Verifications

Individual Smoke Shapefile Matching Results for day 27

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Below are the results of today's smoke analysis and yesterday's smoke forecast for today (if available). Shown in each table are the plume shapefile areas of HYSPLIT and HMS, their overlap, the percent of each shapefile overlapped, and the Figure of Merit in Space (FMS) percentage for each HYSPLIT shapefile that overlaid some portion of the HMS shapefile.

The Area Weighted Mean FMS

Area Weighted Mean FMS = (HMS Area * FMS) / (sum of HMS Area)
and the average FMS

Average FMS = (sum of FMS / number of shapefiles matched)
and the daily FMS

Daily FMS = (100 * sum of intersections / sum of unions)
are shown at the bottom of each table.

HYSPLIT 24hr Analysis Valid Today

HYSPLIT Analysis (1 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		1112	508205	1112	508205	100.0	0.2	0.22
2	N		838	508205	838	508205	100.0	0.2	0.16
3	N		2440	508205	2297	508348	94.1	0.5	0.45
4	N		1171	508205	817	508559	69.8	0.2	0.16
5	N		775	508205	704	508276	90.8	0.1	0.14
6	N		357	4298	357	4298	100.0	8.3	8.31
7	N		1112	510570	1112	510570	100.0	0.2	0.22
8	N		838	510570	838	510570	100.0	0.2	0.16
9	N		2440	510570	2440	510570	100.0	0.5	0.48
10	N		1171	510570	1171	510570	100.0	0.2	0.23
11	N		775	510570	775	510570	100.0	0.2	0.15
12	N		357	5108	227	5238	63.6	4.4	4.34
13	N		809	948	23	1734	2.8	2.4	1.32
14	N		647	948	184	1412	28.3	19.4	13.00
15	N		270	815	172	913	63.8	21.1	18.85
16	N		809	2330	551	2588	68.2	23.7	21.31
17	N		574	682	54	1201	9.5	8.0	4.53
18	N		647	2330	415	2563	64.1	17.8	16.20
19	N		112	1386	31	1467	28.0	2.3	2.13
20	N		1238	894	315	1817	25.5	35.3	17.36
21	N		1465	890	727	1628	49.6	81.7	44.64
22	N		2015	1086	857	2244	42.5	78.9	38.20
23	N		162	682	21	823	13.0	3.1	2.57
24	N		270	818	172	915	64.0	21.1	18.84
25	N		809	3013	806	3016	99.6	26.8	26.72
26	N		1238	1213	638	1812	51.5	52.6	35.20
27	N		1465	1438	1245	1658	85.0	86.6	75.11
28	N		2015	687	480	2222	23.8	69.9	21.62
29	N		809	4517	809	4517	100.0	17.9	17.91
30	N		1238	1619	892	1964	72.1	55.1	45.44
31	N		1602	444	296	1751	18.5	66.6	16.89
32	N		1465	1491	1262	1693	86.2	84.7	74.56
33	N		2015	2724	1013	3726	50.3	37.2	27.19
34	N		2019	802	802	2019	39.7	100.0	39.72
35	N		809	5963	809	5963	100.0	13.6	13.57
36	N		1238	2250	1169	2319	94.5	52.0	50.44
37	N		1602	898	630	1870	39.3	70.2	33.70
38	N		1465	2898	1409	2954	96.2	48.6	47.70
39	N		2015	4093	1424	4684	70.7	34.8	30.40
40	N		2019	2007	1176	2851	58.2	58.6	41.24
41	N		849	3566	483	3932	56.9	13.5	12.28
42	N		298	3566	105	3758	35.3	2.9	2.79
43	N		870	1161	223	1807	25.6	19.2	12.34
44	N		1084	769	541	1312	49.9	70.4	41.26
45	N		809	7467	809	7467	100.0	10.8	10.84
46	N		1238	3619	1238	3619	100.0	34.2	34.20
47	N		1602	2391	1010	2983	63.0	42.3	33.87
48	N		1465	2452	750	3167	51.2	30.6	23.69
49	N		2015	4288	382	5921	19.0	8.9	6.46
50	N		2019	1510	734	2796	36.3	48.6	26.24
51	N		849	5289	459	5679	54.1	8.7	8.09
52	N		298	5289	104	5483	35.0	2.0	1.90
53	N		870	1666	418	2118	48.0	25.1	19.73
54	N		1084	1530	811	1803	74.8	53.0	44.98
55	N		241	1666	121	1785	50.4	7.3	6.80
56	N		663	1530	2	2191	0.3	0.2	0.11
57	Y	2	848365	6010	6010	848365	0.7	100.0	0.71
58	N		809	8224	414	8619	51.2	5.0	4.80
59	N		241	1878	221	1898	91.5	11.8	11.62
60	Y	2	663	3478	384	3758	57.8	11.0	10.21
61	N		288	23906	110	24084	38.3	0.5	0.46
62	Y	2	848365	8435	8435	848365	1.0	100.0	0.99
63	N		162	784	19	927	11.6	2.4	2.03
64	N		809	8701	158	9353	19.5	1.8	1.69
65	N		288	10250	23	10516	7.9	0.2	0.22
66	Y	2	848365	11789	11789	848365	1.4	100.0	1.39
67	N		7650	2368	1679	8339	21.9	70.9	20.13
68	Y	2	10249	3562	3042	10768	29.7	85.4	28.25
69	N		1107	17431	668	17871	60.3	3.8	3.74
70	N		555	96	77	574	13.9	80.0	13.43
71	Y	2	578	14177	340	14415	58.9	2.4	2.36
72	Y	2	1034	14165	913	14285	88.3	6.4	6.39
73	Y	2	1188	14165	1180	14172	99.3	8.3	8.33
74	N		288	10505	155	10638	53.6	1.5	1.45
75	Y	2	848365	15158	15158	848365	1.8	100.0	1.79
76	Y	2	7650	3483	1851	9282	24.2	53.1	19.94
77	N		10249	4150	3668	10730	35.8	88.4	34.19
78	N		1107	16402	757	16752	68.4	4.6	4.52
79	Y	2	555	25114	207	25462	37.3	0.8	0.81
80	Y	2	578	25114	91	25601	15.8	0.4	0.36
81	N		1034	17764	774	18024	74.9	4.4	4.30
82	N		1188	17764	1188	17764	100.0	6.7	6.69
83	N		288	7349	131	7506	45.6	1.8	1.75
84	Y	2	848365	18058	18058	848365	2.1	100.0	2.13
85	N		7650	2463	833	9281	10.9	33.8	8.97
86	N		10249	4814	4223	10839	41.2	87.7	38.96
87	N		1107	9043	962	9188	86.9	10.6	10.47
88	Y	2	848365	21182	21182	848365	2.5	100.0	2.50
89	N		10249	5676	4902	11023	47.8	86.4	44.47
90	N		1107	10579	1107	10579	100.0	10.5	10.47
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 2.20				Mean FMS = 15.64			Daily FMS = 1.41

HYSPLIT Analysis (5 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		1112	1881	122	2870	11.0	6.5	4.26
2	N		838	351	8	1181	0.9	2.2	0.66
3	N		2440	351	229	2562	9.4	65.2	8.93
4	Y	2	1112	67870	65	68917	5.8	0.1	0.09
5	Y	2	2440	278	278	2440	11.4	100.0	11.41
6	N		1171	9	0	1180	0.0	0.0	0.00
7	Y	2	775	278	28	1026	3.6	10.0	2.72
8	N		809	593	7	1395	0.9	1.2	0.52
9	N		647	593	117	1123	18.1	19.8	10.44
10	N		270	777	167	880	61.8	21.4	18.93
11	N		809	1756	497	2069	61.4	28.3	24.01
12	N		574	301	25	850	4.3	8.2	2.91
13	N		647	1756	347	2057	53.6	19.8	16.87
14	N		1238	463	208	1493	16.8	44.9	13.94
15	N		1465	626	571	1519	39.0	91.3	37.62
16	N		2015	437	437	2015	21.7	100.0	21.69
17	N		270	799	170	898	62.9	21.2	18.88
18	N		809	2064	753	2120	93.1	36.5	35.53
19	N		1238	481	358	1361	28.9	74.4	26.32
20	N		1465	753	696	1522	47.5	92.4	45.71
21	N		2015	215	209	2021	10.4	97.3	10.33
22	N		809	2835	809	2835	100.0	28.5	28.54
23	N		1238	779	551	1466	44.5	70.7	37.57
24	N		1465	870	832	1503	56.8	95.6	55.32
25	Y	2	2015	761	545	2230	27.1	71.7	24.45
26	N		2019	661	661	2019	32.7	100.0	32.75
27	N		809	3092	808	3094	99.8	26.1	26.10
28	N		1238	1019	740	1517	59.8	72.6	48.78
29	N		1602	0	0	1602	0.0	100.0	0.01
30	N		1465	1736	1246	1956	85.0	71.7	63.69
31	N		2015	1290	1057	2248	52.5	82.0	47.03
32	N		2019	1632	1048	2604	51.9	64.2	40.23
33	N		849	2699	370	3178	43.6	13.7	11.65
34	N		298	2699	76	2920	25.6	2.8	2.61
35	N		870	916	206	1580	23.7	22.5	13.05
36	N		1084	503	394	1194	36.4	78.3	33.02
37	N		809	3753	804	3758	99.4	21.4	21.40
38	N		1238	1371	909	1700	73.4	66.3	53.44
39	N		1602	205	178	1629	11.1	86.9	10.92
40	N		1465	928	372	2020	25.4	40.1	18.43
41	N		2015	598	23	2590	1.1	3.8	0.87
42	N		2019	1009	559	2469	27.7	55.4	22.63
43	N		849	3825	332	4342	39.1	8.7	7.64
44	N		298	3825	72	4050	24.4	1.9	1.79
45	N		870	1168	349	1688	40.2	29.9	20.70
46	N		1084	720	541	1263	49.9	75.2	42.84
47	N		241	1168	93	1316	38.4	7.9	7.03
48	Y	2	848365	1576	1576	848365	0.2	100.0	0.19
49	N		809	3782	99	4492	12.3	2.6	2.21
50	N		241	654	138	757	57.0	21.0	18.16
51	N		663	460	263	860	39.6	57.2	30.56
52	N		288	228	15	501	5.3	6.7	3.07
53	Y	2	848365	2566	2566	848365	0.3	100.0	0.30
54	Y	2	848365	2500	2500	848365	0.3	100.0	0.29
55	Y	3	7650	689	594	7746	7.8	86.1	7.66
56	Y	2	10249	2140	1923	10465	18.8	89.9	18.38
57	N		1107	1808	341	2574	30.8	18.9	13.27
58	Y	2	578	504	223	859	38.6	44.3	25.98
59	Y	2	1034	1869	380	2523	36.7	20.3	15.04
60	Y	2	1188	6511	1130	6568	95.2	17.4	17.21
61	Y	3	848365	3033	3033	848365	0.4	100.0	0.36
62	Y	3	7650	787	507	7930	6.6	64.4	6.39
63	Y	3	10249	1526	1407	10367	13.7	92.2	13.58
64	N		1107	1840	154	2793	13.9	8.4	5.51
65	N		578	148	42	685	7.2	28.1	6.08
66	N		1034	8479	96	9417	9.2	1.1	1.01
67	N		1188	8479	1118	8549	94.1	13.2	13.08
68	Y	2	848365	3284	3284	848365	0.4	100.0	0.39
69	N		7650	625	121	8154	1.6	19.4	1.49
70	Y	3	10249	1900	1835	10314	17.9	96.6	17.79
71	Y	2	1107	2699	271	3536	24.4	10.0	7.65
72	Y	2	848365	3463	3463	848365	0.4	100.0	0.41
73	Y	3	10249	1814	1715	10348	16.7	94.5	16.57
74	N		1107	3390	929	3567	83.9	27.4	26.05
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 0.75				Mean FMS = 16.93			Daily FMS = 0.91

HYSPLIT Analysis (20 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		647	221	11	857	1.7	5.1	1.30
2	N		270	647	146	770	54.2	22.6	18.95
3	N		809	708	283	1235	34.9	39.9	22.89
4	N		647	708	141	1215	21.8	19.9	11.60
5	N		1238	28	22	1244	1.7	76.7	1.73
6	N		1465	217	217	1465	14.8	100.0	14.84
7	N		270	728	159	838	59.0	21.9	18.98
8	N		809	566	358	1017	44.2	63.3	35.20
9	N		1465	237	237	1465	16.2	100.0	16.21
10	N		809	658	541	926	66.9	82.2	58.42
11	N		1238	79	79	1238	6.4	100.0	6.42
12	N		1465	177	177	1465	12.1	100.0	12.06
13	N		2019	330	330	2019	16.3	100.0	16.33
14	Y	2	809	203	172	840	21.3	85.0	20.52
15	N		1465	120	120	1465	8.2	100.0	8.17
16	N		2015	34	34	2015	1.7	100.0	1.67
17	N		2019	927	675	2271	33.4	72.8	29.71
18	N		849	1441	192	2098	22.7	13.4	9.17
19	N		298	1441	12	1726	4.0	0.8	0.69
20	N		870	455	156	1168	18.0	34.4	13.38
21	N		1084	139	139	1084	12.8	100.0	12.85
22	Y	3	809	144	113	840	14.0	78.6	13.47
23	N		1465	11	10	1466	0.7	91.2	0.71
24	N		2019	289	182	2127	9.0	62.8	8.54
25	N		849	1926	175	2600	20.6	9.1	6.72
26	N		298	1926	9	2214	3.0	0.5	0.40
27	N		870	308	107	1071	12.3	34.7	10.00
28	N		1084	139	139	1084	12.9	100.0	12.86
29	N		241	308	1	549	0.4	0.3	0.18
30	N		663	30	22	671	3.3	75.1	3.31
31	N		848365	24	24	848365	0.0	100.0	0.00
32	N		7650	18	18	7650	0.2	100.0	0.23
33	Y	3	10249	487	480	10255	4.7	98.6	4.68
34	N		1107	63	38	1131	3.5	61.3	3.39
35	N		578	38	34	582	6.0	89.8	5.91
36	Y	2	1188	1257	703	1742	59.2	55.9	40.34
37	N		10249	171	171	10249	1.7	100.0	1.67
38	Y	2	1188	1081	567	1701	47.8	52.5	33.35
39	N		848365	43	43	848365	0.0	100.0	0.01
40	Y	2	10249	38	38	10249	0.4	100.0	0.37
41	N		848365	62	62	848365	0.0	100.0	0.01
42	N		10249	72	72	10249	0.7	100.0	0.70
43	N		1107	14	14	1107	1.3	100.0	1.26
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 0.22				Mean FMS = 11.14			Daily FMS = 0.27

HYSPLIT Analysis (100 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		270	272	75	467	27.8	27.6	16.06
2	N		270	436	107	598	39.8	24.6	17.94
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 17.00				Mean FMS = 17.00			Daily FMS = 17.12

HYSPLIT 24hr Forecast Valid Today

HYSPLIT +24h Forecast (1 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		162	1046	11	1197	6.6	1.0	0.90
2	N		1112	271503	1112	271503	100.0	0.4	0.41
3	N		838	271503	838	271503	100.0	0.3	0.31
4	N		2440	271503	2440	271503	100.0	0.9	0.90
5	N		1171	271503	1171	271503	100.0	0.4	0.43
6	N		775	271503	775	271503	100.0	0.3	0.29
7	N		162	917	57	1022	35.0	6.2	5.56
8	N		493	947	170	1271	34.4	17.9	13.37
9	N		1112	403477	1112	403477	100.0	0.3	0.28
10	N		838	403477	1	404314	0.2	0.0	0.00
11	N		2440	403477	2401	403517	98.4	0.6	0.59
12	N		1171	403477	6	404642	0.5	0.0	0.00
13	N		775	403477	736	403517	94.9	0.2	0.18
14	N		493	535	207	821	42.0	38.8	25.25
15	N		675	515	62	1129	9.1	12.0	5.46
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 2.00				Mean FMS = 3.59			Daily FMS = 0.33

HYSPLIT +24h Forecast (5 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		1112	57991	290	58812	26.1	0.5	0.49
2	N		1112	54409	136	55385	12.3	0.3	0.25
3	N		1171	54409	88	55492	7.5	0.2	0.16
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 0.30				Mean FMS = 0.30			Daily FMS = 0.30