HYSPLIT Archived Smoke Forecast Verifications

Individual Smoke Shapefile Matching Results for day 29

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Below are the results of today's smoke analysis and yesterday's smoke forecast for today (if available). Shown in each table are the plume shapefile areas of HYSPLIT and HMS, their overlap, the percent of each shapefile overlapped, and the Figure of Merit in Space (FMS) percentage for each HYSPLIT shapefile that overlaid some portion of the HMS shapefile.

The Area Weighted Mean FMS

Area Weighted Mean FMS = (HMS Area * FMS) / (sum of HMS Area)
and the average FMS

Average FMS = (sum of FMS / number of shapefiles matched)
and the daily FMS

Daily FMS = (100 * sum of intersections / sum of unions)
are shown at the bottom of each table.

HYSPLIT 24hr Analysis Valid Today

HYSPLIT Analysis (1 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		395092	23045	10351	407786	2.6	44.9	2.54
2	Y	2	362488	1469	1469	362488	0.4	100.0	0.41
3	Y	4	524425	40061	20124	544361	3.8	50.2	3.70
4	N		395092	25607	13353	407347	3.4	52.1	3.28
5	N		31474	25607	46	57036	0.1	0.2	0.08
6	Y	2	362488	1220	387	363321	0.1	31.7	0.11
7	Y	2	7983	1220	564	8639	7.1	46.3	6.53
8	Y	5	524425	41001	17499	547926	3.3	42.7	3.19
9	N		395092	20806	16630	399268	4.2	79.9	4.17
10	N		31474	20806	377	51904	1.2	1.8	0.73
11	N		218	998	180	1036	82.5	18.0	17.33
12	N		104	862	59	907	56.6	6.8	6.51
13	N		362488	448	297	362638	0.1	66.4	0.08
14	Y	2	7983	1090	884	8190	11.1	81.1	10.79
15	Y	5	524425	40114	16229	548309	3.1	40.5	2.96
16	N		549	1086	298	1338	54.2	27.4	22.27
17	N		351	1307	310	1348	88.2	23.7	22.98
18	N		102	1307	102	1307	99.7	7.8	7.81
19	Y	2	5630	1898	1896	5632	33.7	99.9	33.66
20	N		549	1632	475	1707	86.4	29.1	27.81
21	N		351	2026	349	2029	99.2	17.2	17.19
22	N		102	2026	102	2026	99.9	5.0	5.05
23	Y	2	5630	4431	2352	7710	41.8	53.1	30.50
24	Y	2	6466	5813	2607	9672	40.3	44.9	26.96
25	N		1040	982	554	1469	53.2	56.4	37.70
26	N		3542	165	153	3554	4.3	92.7	4.31
27	N		549	2049	217	2381	39.5	10.6	9.11
28	N		351	2608	224	2735	63.7	8.6	8.18
29	N		102	2608	60	2650	58.7	2.3	2.27
30	Y	3	5630	6188	1499	10319	26.6	24.2	14.52
31	N		156	711	28	839	17.7	3.9	3.30
32	Y	2	6466	6085	2807	9743	43.4	46.1	28.81
33	N		1040	982	554	1469	53.2	56.4	37.70
34	N		1743	1677	390	3030	22.4	23.3	12.88
35	N		3542	842	555	3828	15.7	66.0	14.50
36	N		504	744	200	1049	39.7	26.9	19.08
37	N		2371	711	661	2421	27.9	93.0	27.29
38	Y	2	6466	6666	3237	9895	50.1	48.6	32.72
39	N		1040	982	554	1469	53.2	56.4	37.70
40	N		1743	2216	655	3304	37.6	29.6	19.83
41	N		1178	905	650	1433	55.2	71.8	45.33
42	N		3542	1948	1585	3906	44.7	81.3	40.58
43	N		1893	1965	1323	2535	69.9	67.3	52.17
44	N		504	684	414	774	82.1	60.6	53.50
45	N		513	1316	464	1365	90.5	35.3	34.03
46	N		2371	627	626	2371	26.4	100.0	26.42
47	N		6466	6902	3600	9768	55.7	52.2	36.85
48	N		1040	1187	638	1589	61.4	53.8	40.16
49	N		1743	2765	764	3744	43.8	27.6	20.40
50	N		1178	1674	909	1942	77.2	54.3	46.79
51	N		3542	3297	2580	4259	72.8	78.3	60.58
52	N		1893	2980	1813	3059	95.8	60.9	59.28
53	Y	2	6466	7400	3944	9922	61.0	53.3	39.75
54	N		1040	1776	912	1904	87.7	51.4	47.90
55	N		1743	4008	1019	4732	58.4	25.4	21.53
56	N		1178	3171	963	3385	81.8	30.4	28.45
57	N		3542	4309	2859	4992	80.7	66.3	57.27
58	N		1893	4626	1863	4656	98.4	40.3	40.02
59	N		7089	4662	1390	10362	19.6	29.8	13.41
60	N		6466	9513	5489	10489	84.9	57.7	52.33
61	N		1040	2778	980	2838	94.2	35.3	34.53
62	N		1743	5292	1289	5747	73.9	24.4	22.43
63	N		1178	27799	897	28079	76.2	3.2	3.19
64	N		3542	5785	3030	6297	85.5	52.4	48.12
65	N		1893	5834	1712	6015	90.4	29.3	28.46
66	N		7089	6411	740	12761	10.4	11.5	5.80
67	N		269363	5292	5292	269363	2.0	100.0	1.96
68	N		269363	7108	7108	269363	2.6	100.0	2.64
69	N		1352	753	347	1757	25.7	46.2	19.77
70	N		1352	1434	2	2783	0.2	0.2	0.08
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 3.19				Mean FMS = 22.15			Daily FMS = 3.59

HYSPLIT Analysis (5 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		524425	0	0	524425	0.0	100.0	0.00
2	N		218	353	59	512	27.1	16.7	11.54
3	N		104	658	50	713	47.5	7.5	6.95
4	N		549	622	121	1050	22.0	19.4	11.50
5	N		351	1064	278	1137	79.2	26.2	24.49
6	N		102	1064	93	1073	90.8	8.7	8.66
7	Y	2	5630	979	979	5630	17.4	100.0	17.38
8	N		549	475	357	667	65.0	75.2	53.53
9	N		351	1377	336	1393	95.5	24.4	24.11
10	N		102	1377	98	1382	95.4	7.1	7.07
11	N		5630	780	780	5630	13.9	100.0	13.85
12	N		6466	1155	1067	6553	16.5	92.4	16.29
13	N		1040	171	170	1041	16.3	99.5	16.33
14	N		549	977	150	1376	27.4	15.4	10.94
15	N		351	1529	199	1682	56.5	13.0	11.81
16	N		102	1529	51	1581	49.8	3.3	3.23
17	Y	2	5630	2506	293	7843	5.2	11.7	3.74
18	N		156	324	2	478	1.3	0.6	0.43
19	N		6466	1307	1213	6560	18.8	92.8	18.49
20	N		1040	171	170	1041	16.3	99.5	16.33
21	N		1743	1172	195	2720	11.2	16.6	7.15
22	N		3542	367	293	3616	8.3	79.7	8.09
23	N		504	437	142	799	28.2	32.5	17.76
24	N		2371	324	324	2371	13.7	100.0	13.65
25	N		6466	1255	1072	6648	16.6	85.5	16.13
26	N		1040	171	170	1041	16.3	99.5	16.33
27	N		1743	1606	381	2968	21.9	23.7	12.84
28	N		1178	490	399	1269	33.8	81.3	31.41
29	N		3542	947	822	3667	23.2	86.8	22.43
30	N		1893	843	620	2116	32.7	73.5	29.28
31	N		504	296	240	560	47.5	81.0	42.77
32	N		513	860	360	1013	70.2	41.9	35.56
33	N		2371	208	208	2371	8.8	100.0	8.78
34	N		6466	1652	1464	6653	22.6	88.6	22.01
35	N		1040	717	546	1212	52.5	76.1	45.05
36	N		1743	2033	573	3203	32.9	28.2	17.88
37	N		1178	862	619	1420	52.6	71.8	43.60
38	N		3542	1318	1219	3642	34.4	92.4	33.46
39	N		1893	1226	1102	2016	58.2	89.9	54.67
40	N		6466	2372	2154	6684	33.3	90.8	32.23
41	N		1040	926	709	1257	68.2	76.6	56.43
42	N		1743	2270	690	3323	39.6	30.4	20.76
43	N		1178	1149	737	1590	62.6	64.1	46.36
44	N		3542	1651	1571	3622	44.4	95.1	43.37
45	N		1893	1322	1292	1923	68.3	97.7	67.19
46	N		7089	2462	916	8636	12.9	37.2	10.60
47	N		6466	3937	3323	7080	51.4	84.4	46.94
48	N		1040	1295	874	1462	84.0	67.5	59.78
49	N		1743	2657	791	3609	45.4	29.8	21.93
50	N		1178	1469	641	2006	54.4	43.6	31.96
51	N		3542	2293	2042	3793	57.6	89.1	53.83
52	N		1893	1581	1222	2252	64.5	77.3	54.25
53	N		7089	1700	402	8387	5.7	23.7	4.80
54	N		269363	2657	2657	269363	1.0	100.0	0.99
55	N		269363	3172	3172	269363	1.2	100.0	1.18
56	N		1352	517	235	1634	17.3	45.4	14.35
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 3.00				Mean FMS = 23.62			Daily FMS = 3.34

HYSPLIT Analysis (20 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		104	281	19	366	18.1	6.7	5.16
2	N		549	218	12	755	2.2	5.7	1.63
3	N		351	622	191	783	54.4	30.7	24.42
4	N		102	622	73	652	71.3	11.7	11.21
5	Y	2	5630	94	94	5630	1.7	100.0	1.67
6	N		549	16	16	549	2.8	100.0	2.84
7	N		351	331	212	470	60.4	64.1	45.16
8	N		102	331	76	357	74.6	23.1	21.38
9	N		5630	72	72	5630	1.3	100.0	1.29
10	N		6466	280	280	6466	4.3	100.0	4.33
11	N		549	69	9	609	1.7	13.2	1.49
12	N		351	446	140	657	39.7	31.3	21.22
13	N		102	446	25	523	24.3	5.6	4.77
14	N		6466	301	301	6466	4.7	100.0	4.66
15	N		1743	722	62	2403	3.6	8.6	2.60
16	N		504	76	58	522	11.4	76.0	11.05
17	N		6466	67	67	6466	1.0	100.0	1.04
18	N		1743	917	162	2498	9.3	17.6	6.47
19	N		1178	48	48	1178	4.1	100.0	4.08
20	N		3542	55	55	3542	1.5	100.0	1.55
21	N		1893	204	189	1908	10.0	92.5	9.88
22	N		513	321	146	688	28.5	45.5	21.23
23	N		6466	196	196	6466	3.0	100.0	3.02
24	N		1040	250	249	1041	24.0	99.7	23.94
25	N		1743	1117	253	2608	14.5	22.6	9.69
26	N		1178	190	186	1181	15.8	98.0	15.77
27	N		3542	94	94	3542	2.7	100.0	2.67
28	N		1893	20	20	1893	1.1	100.0	1.06
29	Y	2	6466	201	201	6466	3.1	100.0	3.11
30	N		1040	332	322	1050	31.0	97.1	30.70
31	N		1743	983	301	2425	17.2	30.6	12.39
32	N		1178	299	284	1192	24.2	95.2	23.86
33	N		3542	123	123	3542	3.5	100.0	3.47
34	N		1893	24	24	1893	1.2	100.0	1.25
35	Y	2	7089	95	95	7089	1.3	100.0	1.34
36	N		6466	1003	697	6771	10.8	69.5	10.30
37	N		1040	401	386	1055	37.1	96.2	36.59
38	N		1743	915	303	2355	17.4	33.1	12.85
39	Y	2	3542	105	105	3542	3.0	100.0	2.98
40	N		7089	5	5	7089	0.1	100.0	0.07
41	N		269363	915	915	269363	0.3	100.0	0.34
42	N		269363	930	930	269363	0.3	100.0	0.35
43	N		1352	167	72	1447	5.3	43.0	4.97
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 1.13				Mean FMS = 9.53			Daily FMS = 1.24

HYSPLIT Analysis (100 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		1743	180	0	1923	0.0	0.2	0.02
2	N		1743	222	4	1961	0.2	1.6	0.18
3	N		1743	256	9	1990	0.5	3.6	0.46
4	N		6466	237	173	6530	2.7	73.0	2.65
5	N		269363	0	0	269363	0.0	100.0	0.00
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 0.07				Mean FMS = 0.66			Daily FMS = 0.07

HYSPLIT 24hr Forecast Valid Today

HYSPLIT +24h Forecast (1 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	Y	2	395092	35107	8202	421996	2.1	23.4	1.94
2	N		37	1075	37	1075	100.0	3.4	3.42
3	Y	2	362488	1871	969	363390	0.3	51.8	0.27
4	N		7983	1625	702	8906	8.8	43.2	7.89
5	Y	6	524425	62533	19536	567421	3.7	31.2	3.44
6	Y	2	395092	37999	10227	422863	2.6	26.9	2.42
7	N		31474	37914	78	69310	0.2	0.2	0.11
8	N		37	968	0	1004	0.3	0.0	0.01
9	Y	2	362488	776	422	362841	0.1	54.4	0.12
10	N		7983	729	268	8445	3.4	36.7	3.17
11	Y	6	524425	64712	17632	571504	3.4	27.2	3.09
12	N		395092	40649	13782	421960	3.5	33.9	3.27
13	N		31474	40649	438	71685	1.4	1.1	0.61
14	N		7983	927	919	7991	11.5	99.2	11.51
15	Y	6	524425	68549	17991	574983	3.4	26.2	3.13
16	N		204	13459	195	13467	95.7	1.5	1.45
17	N		204	14500	0	14704	0.1	0.0	0.00
18	N		6466	44421	5030	45857	77.8	11.3	10.97
19	N		1040	27960	927	28073	89.2	3.3	3.30
20	N		204	15939	204	15939	100.0	1.3	1.28
21	N		6466	42993	4838	44621	74.8	11.3	10.84
22	N		1040	25780	923	25897	88.8	3.6	3.57
23	N		6466	21309	5057	22718	78.2	23.7	22.26
24	N		1040	16922	938	17024	90.2	5.5	5.51
25	N		6466	18932	5090	20308	78.7	26.9	25.06
26	N		1040	18120	945	18216	90.8	5.2	5.19
27	N		6466	19171	5013	20624	77.5	26.1	24.31
28	N		1040	18750	955	18835	91.8	5.1	5.07
29	N		6466	10694	5165	11994	79.9	48.3	43.07
30	N		1040	19046	959	19127	92.2	5.0	5.01
31	Y	2	1352	24689	641	25400	47.4	2.6	2.53
32	Y	2	1352	11849	535	12666	39.6	4.5	4.23
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 2.58				Mean FMS = 6.81			Daily FMS = 3.03

HYSPLIT +24h Forecast (5 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		395092	0	0	395092	0.0	100.0	0.00
2	N		524425	617	8	525033	0.0	1.3	0.00
3	N		524425	65	65	524425	0.0	100.0	0.01
4	N		204	2302	185	2321	90.6	8.0	7.97
5	N		204	2368	186	2386	90.9	7.8	7.78
6	N		6466	3841	3303	7004	51.1	86.0	47.16
7	N		1040	3177	593	3624	57.0	18.7	16.36
8	N		204	2271	204	2271	100.0	9.0	8.99
9	Y	2	6466	2969	2449	6986	37.9	82.5	35.05
10	N		1040	3508	570	3978	54.8	16.2	14.33
11	Y	2	6466	3461	2786	7140	43.1	80.5	39.03
12	N		1040	4071	692	4419	66.5	17.0	15.66
13	N		6466	4407	3611	7262	55.8	81.9	49.72
14	N		1040	4362	740	4662	71.2	17.0	15.87
15	N		6466	4413	3400	7480	52.6	77.0	45.45
16	N		1040	4693	809	4924	77.8	17.2	16.44
17	N		6466	4258	3143	7581	48.6	73.8	41.45
18	N		1040	5013	826	5227	79.4	16.5	15.79
19	N		1352	861	263	1950	19.5	30.6	13.50
20	N		1352	342	57	1637	4.2	16.6	3.47
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 1.21				Mean FMS = 19.70			Daily FMS = 1.57

HYSPLIT +24h Forecast (20 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		204	397	127	474	62.4	32.1	26.88
2	N		204	380	109	476	53.2	28.6	22.83
3	N		6466	1477	1200	6743	18.6	81.2	17.80
4	N		1040	7	7	1040	0.7	100.0	0.66
5	N		204	291	121	374	59.2	41.5	32.30
6	N		6466	955	674	6747	10.4	70.5	9.99
7	N		1040	6	6	1040	0.5	100.0	0.54
8	N		6466	710	435	6742	6.7	61.2	6.45
9	N		1040	246	229	1057	22.1	93.3	21.72
10	N		6466	922	645	6743	10.0	69.9	9.56
11	N		1040	256	219	1077	21.1	85.5	20.36
12	Y	3	6466	918	576	6807	8.9	62.8	8.47
13	N		1040	391	300	1131	28.9	76.7	26.53
14	N		6466	816	474	6808	7.3	58.1	6.97
15	N		1040	423	312	1151	30.0	73.8	27.13
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 10.97				Mean FMS = 15.88			Daily FMS = 11.23

HYSPLIT +24h Forecast (100 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	Y	2	6466	165	128	6503	2.0	77.6	1.97
2	N		6466	159	122	6503	1.9	76.8	1.88
3	N		6466	157	120	6503	1.9	76.5	1.84
4	N		6466	159	122	6503	1.9	76.7	1.87
5	N		6466	327	217	6576	3.4	66.3	3.30
6	N		6466	326	216	6576	3.3	66.2	3.28
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 2.36				Mean FMS = 2.36			Daily FMS = 2.36