HYSPLIT Archived Smoke Forecast Verifications

Individual Smoke Shapefile Matching Results for day 30

< PREVIOUS DAY'S FORECAST RETURN NEXT DAY'S FORECAST >

Below are the results of today's smoke analysis and yesterday's smoke forecast for today (if available). Shown in each table are the plume shapefile areas of HYSPLIT and HMS, their overlap, the percent of each shapefile overlapped, and the Figure of Merit in Space (FMS) percentage for each HYSPLIT shapefile that overlaid some portion of the HMS shapefile.

The Area Weighted Mean FMS

Area Weighted Mean FMS = (HMS Area * FMS) / (sum of HMS Area)
and the average FMS

Average FMS = (sum of FMS / number of shapefiles matched)
and the daily FMS

Daily FMS = (100 * sum of intersections / sum of unions)
are shown at the bottom of each table.

HYSPLIT 24hr Analysis Valid Today

HYSPLIT Analysis (1 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		376	659	41	994	10.8	6.2	4.09
2	N		1493	490	161	1821	10.8	33.0	8.86
3	N		339	1076	44	1371	13.0	4.1	3.22
4	N		1493	1766	510	2748	34.2	28.9	18.57
5	N		500	1076	62	1513	12.4	5.8	4.11
6	N		733	1766	723	1777	98.5	40.9	40.67
7	Y	5	1041419	45347	12666	1074100	1.2	27.9	1.18
8	N		733	1831	676	1888	92.2	36.9	35.82
9	Y	4	1041419	37489	10413	1068496	1.0	27.8	0.97
10	Y	2	1435	4370	481	5324	33.5	11.0	9.04
11	N		2386	869	556	2699	23.3	63.9	20.60
12	Y	2	1435	5149	519	6065	36.2	10.1	8.56
13	N		2386	959	590	2755	24.7	61.5	21.40
14	N		1435	6148	634	6949	44.2	10.3	9.13
15	N		773	1027	168	1633	21.7	16.3	10.26
16	Y	2	2386	2363	725	4024	30.4	30.7	18.01
17	N		2740	820	813	2747	29.7	99.1	29.58
18	N		606	1764	265	2105	43.7	15.0	12.60
19	N		9432	4662	1854	12241	19.7	39.8	15.14
20	N		4871	2441	1743	5569	35.8	71.4	31.31
21	Y	2	2385	1935	1157	3163	48.5	59.8	36.59
22	Y	2	1797	1808	1209	2396	67.3	66.9	50.44
23	N		436	1160	429	1167	98.3	37.0	36.74
24	N		764	738	629	872	82.4	85.3	72.12
25	N		1435	7312	673	8073	46.9	9.2	8.34
26	N		773	1175	179	1769	23.2	15.3	10.14
27	Y	2	2386	2730	710	4406	29.7	26.0	16.11
28	N		1518	902	134	2286	8.8	14.8	5.86
29	N		2740	1676	1403	3014	51.2	83.7	46.54
30	N		606	4492	227	4871	37.4	5.0	4.65
31	Y	2	9432	5896	2713	12616	28.8	46.0	21.50
32	N		4871	2430	762	6539	15.6	31.3	11.65
33	N		2385	3288	1258	4415	52.7	38.3	28.50
34	Y	2	1797	2426	1180	3043	65.6	48.6	38.77
35	N		436	1550	429	1557	98.4	27.7	27.57
36	N		764	1107	665	1205	87.1	60.1	55.20
37	N		1435	8286	1064	8656	74.2	12.8	12.29
38	N		773	1335	207	1901	26.8	15.5	10.90
39	Y	2	2386	2918	663	4641	27.8	22.7	14.29
40	N		1518	1211	163	2566	10.7	13.5	6.35
41	N		3033	900	581	3353	19.1	64.5	17.32
42	N		2563	1878	1499	2942	58.5	79.8	50.95
43	Y	3	5948	15805	3915	17838	65.8	24.8	21.95
44	N		2733	12758	2466	13026	90.2	19.3	18.93
45	N		3555	3615	1138	6032	32.0	31.5	18.87
46	N		3452	5412	2235	6629	64.7	41.3	33.72
47	N		1435	8272	927	8780	64.6	11.2	10.55
48	N		773	1395	250	1918	32.3	17.9	13.04
49	Y	2	2386	3577	701	5262	29.4	19.6	13.32
50	N		1518	1474	201	2791	13.2	13.6	7.20
51	N		3033	1539	880	3692	29.0	57.2	23.83
52	N		2563	2539	1831	3271	71.4	72.1	55.98
53	N		5948	15010	3654	17303	61.4	24.3	21.12
54	N		2733	15010	2648	15095	96.9	17.6	17.54
55	N		3555	4697	1062	7190	29.9	22.6	14.77
56	N		3452	7867	2886	8433	83.6	36.7	34.22
57	Y	7	323741	18998	18217	324522	5.6	95.9	5.61
58	N		2772	1249	763	3258	27.5	61.1	23.42
59	N		2563	3204	2105	3662	82.1	65.7	57.48
60	Y	2	5948	15198	4040	17106	67.9	26.6	23.62
61	N		2733	13951	2233	14451	81.7	16.0	15.45
62	N		3555	6870	913	9511	25.7	13.3	9.60
63	N		3452	10209	3010	10651	87.2	29.5	28.26
64	Y	7	323741	21194	20322	324613	6.3	95.9	6.26
65	N		2772	1092	1024	2840	36.9	93.8	36.06
66	N		5706	7735	3384	10058	59.3	43.7	33.64
67	N		9800	6575	3569	12806	36.4	54.3	27.87
68	N		7362	6575	309	13628	4.2	4.7	2.27
69	N		6851	6575	1428	11997	20.9	21.7	11.91
70	N		1379	933	319	1993	23.1	34.2	16.01
71	Y	6	323741	26398	25639	324500	7.9	97.1	7.90
72	N		5706	8265	3274	10697	57.4	39.6	30.60
73	N		9800	6775	3411	13164	34.8	50.3	25.91
74	N		7362	6775	740	13397	10.1	10.9	5.52
75	N		6851	6775	1563	12062	22.8	23.1	12.96
76	N		1379	2105	387	3097	28.0	18.4	12.48
77	N		11069	7875	1063	17880	9.6	13.5	5.95
78	N		7890	7875	131	15633	1.7	1.7	0.84
79	N		3149	789	789	3149	25.1	100.0	25.06
80	N		5273	2464	2013	5723	38.2	81.7	35.18
81	N		803	2464	636	2631	79.2	25.8	24.18
82	Y	4	323741	30926	28993	325674	9.0	93.8	8.90
83	N		11069	10103	1437	19735	13.0	14.2	7.28
84	N		7890	10103	168	17825	2.1	1.7	0.95
85	N		3149	471	406	3214	12.9	86.2	12.63
86	N		5273	2513	2345	5441	44.5	93.3	43.09
87	N		803	2513	77	3238	9.6	3.1	2.39
88	Y	3	323741	37068	35405	325403	10.9	95.5	10.88
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 5.13				Mean FMS = 20.01			Daily FMS = 5.74

HYSPLIT Analysis (5 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		1493	37	0	1530	0.0	0.0	0.00
2	N		339	504	0	843	0.1	0.1	0.03
3	N		1493	819	221	2090	14.8	27.0	10.57
4	N		500	504	20	984	4.0	3.9	2.02
5	N		733	819	241	1311	32.9	29.4	18.39
6	N		733	341	192	883	26.1	56.2	21.71
7	Y	2	1435	498	183	1750	12.7	36.7	10.43
8	N		2386	402	314	2474	13.2	78.0	12.68
9	Y	2	1435	852	219	2067	15.3	25.7	10.60
10	N		2386	587	416	2557	17.4	70.8	16.27
11	N		1435	289	183	1541	12.8	63.4	11.89
12	N		773	894	143	1524	18.5	16.1	9.42
13	Y	2	2386	1471	427	3430	17.9	29.0	12.44
14	N		2740	519	519	2740	19.0	100.0	18.95
15	N		4871	36	36	4871	0.7	100.0	0.73
16	Y	2	2385	1350	910	2826	38.1	67.4	32.19
17	Y	2	1797	1201	911	2088	50.7	75.8	43.61
18	N		436	931	424	943	97.2	45.6	44.99
19	N		764	576	535	804	70.1	93.0	66.55
20	Y	2	1435	1232	223	2444	15.5	18.1	9.11
21	N		773	958	156	1576	20.1	16.3	9.88
22	Y	2	2386	1504	361	3528	15.1	24.0	10.24
23	N		1518	477	53	1942	3.5	11.0	2.71
24	N		2740	1003	932	2811	34.0	92.9	33.14
25	N		606	915	128	1393	21.2	14.0	9.22
26	N		9432	872	810	9494	8.6	92.9	8.53
27	N		4871	15	15	4871	0.3	100.0	0.30
28	N		2385	1377	969	2794	40.6	70.3	34.68
29	N		1797	1299	1058	2038	58.9	81.5	51.92
30	N		436	1299	427	1309	97.8	32.8	32.60
31	N		764	864	608	1019	79.6	70.4	59.69
32	Y	2	1435	1147	431	2150	30.0	37.6	20.05
33	N		773	1008	161	1621	20.8	16.0	9.93
34	Y	2	2386	1565	319	3632	13.4	20.4	8.79
35	N		1518	929	138	2309	9.1	14.9	5.98
36	N		3033	560	387	3206	12.8	69.1	12.06
37	N		2563	1062	1042	2583	40.7	98.1	40.36
38	Y	2	5948	1821	1819	5950	30.6	99.9	30.57
39	N		2733	1579	652	3659	23.9	41.3	17.83
40	N		3555	2126	538	5143	15.1	25.3	10.47
41	N		3452	1503	1236	3719	35.8	82.2	33.22
42	N		1435	1279	399	2315	27.8	31.2	17.22
43	N		773	986	159	1600	20.5	16.1	9.93
44	Y	2	2386	1749	315	3820	13.2	18.0	8.24
45	N		1518	1063	145	2435	9.6	13.7	5.97
46	N		3033	738	449	3322	14.8	60.9	13.53
47	N		2563	1115	1066	2612	41.6	95.6	40.82
48	Y	2	5948	2231	1715	6464	28.8	76.9	26.53
49	N		2733	1985	1354	3363	49.6	68.2	40.27
50	N		3555	2669	524	5700	14.7	19.6	9.20
51	N		3452	2799	2188	4063	63.4	78.1	53.84
52	Y	3	323741	5631	5261	324111	1.6	93.4	1.62
53	N		2772	666	459	2978	16.6	69.0	15.43
54	N		2563	1252	1031	2783	40.2	82.4	37.06
55	N		5948	2902	1888	6962	31.7	65.1	27.12
56	N		2733	2902	1600	4035	58.6	55.1	39.67
57	N		3555	3674	279	6949	7.8	7.6	4.01
58	N		3452	3800	2276	4975	66.0	59.9	45.76
59	Y	4	323741	7189	6889	324041	2.1	95.8	2.13
60	N		2772	154	154	2772	5.6	100.0	5.55
61	N		5706	4264	2377	7593	41.7	55.7	31.30
62	N		9800	3091	2722	10168	27.8	88.1	26.77
63	N		7362	3091	82	10370	1.1	2.7	0.79
64	N		6851	3091	983	8958	14.3	31.8	10.97
65	N		1379	185	104	1460	7.5	56.1	7.10
66	Y	4	323741	10743	10443	324041	3.2	97.2	3.22
67	N		5706	4983	2343	8346	41.1	47.0	28.07
68	N		9800	3616	2539	10876	25.9	70.2	23.35
69	N		7362	3616	414	10564	5.6	11.4	3.92
70	N		6851	3616	1033	9434	15.1	28.6	10.95
71	N		1379	834	162	2051	11.7	19.4	7.89
72	N		11069	4554	525	15099	4.7	11.5	3.47
73	N		7890	4554	0	12444	0.0	0.0	0.00
74	N		5273	1002	840	5435	15.9	83.8	15.45
75	N		803	1002	270	1535	33.6	26.9	17.57
76	Y	5	323741	12595	12295	324041	3.8	97.6	3.79
77	N		11069	5491	598	15962	5.4	10.9	3.74
78	N		5273	537	537	5273	10.2	100.0	10.19
79	Y	8	323741	13759	13459	324041	4.2	97.8	4.15
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 4.79				Mean FMS = 17.86			Daily FMS = 5.09

HYSPLIT Analysis (20 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		1493	293	113	1672	7.6	38.7	6.78
2	N		733	293	89	937	12.1	30.3	9.48
3	N		2386	0	0	2386	0.0	100.0	0.00
4	N		2386	123	118	2391	4.9	95.7	4.92
5	N		773	525	67	1231	8.7	12.8	5.46
6	Y	2	2386	578	61	2903	2.6	10.6	2.10
7	N		2740	127	127	2740	4.6	100.0	4.64
8	Y	2	2385	578	456	2507	19.1	79.0	18.20
9	N		1797	554	486	1864	27.1	87.9	26.09
10	N		436	554	345	645	79.0	62.2	53.40
11	N		764	256	256	764	33.6	100.0	33.57
12	N		773	679	101	1352	13.0	14.8	7.46
13	N		2386	679	16	3049	0.7	2.4	0.53
14	Y	2	2740	219	219	2740	8.0	100.0	7.98
15	N		606	277	8	875	1.3	2.9	0.92
16	Y	2	9432	135	135	9432	1.4	100.0	1.43
17	N		2385	306	259	2432	10.8	84.6	10.63
18	N		1797	901	782	1916	43.5	86.9	40.84
19	N		436	901	413	924	94.7	45.8	44.69
20	N		764	416	386	793	50.6	92.9	48.70
21	N		773	740	114	1399	14.8	15.5	8.17
22	N		2386	740	20	3106	0.8	2.7	0.65
23	N		1518	601	77	2042	5.0	12.7	3.75
24	N		3033	127	115	3045	3.8	90.6	3.77
25	N		2563	356	356	2563	13.9	100.0	13.90
26	N		5948	439	439	5948	7.4	100.0	7.38
27	N		2733	439	92	3080	3.4	20.9	2.98
28	Y	2	3555	460	80	3935	2.2	17.4	2.03
29	N		3452	26	26	3452	0.8	100.0	0.76
30	N		773	632	94	1312	12.1	14.8	7.14
31	N		2386	632	12	3006	0.5	1.9	0.40
32	N		1518	696	95	2120	6.2	13.6	4.46
33	N		3033	8	8	3033	0.3	100.0	0.26
34	N		2563	197	197	2563	7.7	100.0	7.68
35	N		5948	582	582	5948	9.8	100.0	9.79
36	N		2733	582	404	2912	14.8	69.3	13.87
37	Y	2	3452	265	265	3452	7.7	100.0	7.68
38	Y	4	323741	1174	931	323984	0.3	79.3	0.29
39	N		2772	115	83	2803	3.0	72.8	2.98
40	Y	2	2563	150	150	2563	5.8	100.0	5.84
41	Y	3	5948	591	343	6197	5.8	57.9	5.53
42	Y	2	2733	454	422	2765	15.4	92.9	15.25
43	Y	3	3452	300	292	3459	8.5	97.6	8.46
44	Y	5	323741	905	780	323866	0.2	86.2	0.24
45	Y	2	5706	191	191	5706	3.4	100.0	3.35
46	N		9800	1236	1156	9879	11.8	93.5	11.70
47	N		6851	1236	365	7721	5.3	29.5	4.72
48	Y	5	323741	1000	874	323866	0.3	87.5	0.27
49	Y	3	5706	236	236	5706	4.1	100.0	4.14
50	Y	3	9800	1080	891	9989	9.1	82.5	8.92
51	N		7362	142	60	7444	0.8	42.4	0.81
52	Y	3	6851	1080	192	7738	2.8	17.8	2.48
53	N		11069	580	50	11598	0.5	8.7	0.43
54	Y	4	323741	1292	1167	323866	0.4	90.3	0.36
55	N		11069	137	0	11206	0.0	0.0	0.00
56	Y	5	323741	1093	967	323866	0.3	88.5	0.30
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 0.87				Mean FMS = 8.90			Daily FMS = 0.91

HYSPLIT Analysis (100 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		1797	82	82	1797	4.6	100.0	4.56
2	N		436	82	82	436	18.8	100.0	18.81
3	N		773	146	6	913	0.8	4.2	0.68
4	N		1797	258	258	1797	14.3	100.0	14.35
5	N		436	258	228	466	52.2	88.3	48.83
6	N		773	211	14	970	1.9	6.8	1.49
7	N		773	83	0	856	0.1	0.6	0.06
8	N		1518	153	3	1668	0.2	2.0	0.19
9	N		323741	82	50	323773	0.0	61.4	0.02
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 0.21				Mean FMS = 9.89			Daily FMS = 0.22

HYSPLIT 24hr Forecast Valid Today

HYSPLIT +24h Forecast (1 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	Y	4	1041419	86508	46691	1081237	4.5	54.0	4.32
2	Y	10	1041419	95408	42683	1094144	4.1	44.7	3.90
3	N		1435	10378	1156	10658	80.5	11.1	10.84
4	N		1518	36747	1499	36766	98.8	4.1	4.08
5	N		1435	11296	1071	11660	74.6	9.5	9.18
6	N		1518	40563	0	42081	0.0	0.0	0.00
7	N		1435	10663	1143	10955	79.6	10.7	10.43
8	N		1518	43670	1518	43670	100.0	3.5	3.48
9	N		1435	9794	1159	10069	80.8	11.8	11.51
10	N		1518	44263	1518	44263	100.0	3.4	3.43
11	N		1435	10908	1236	11107	86.2	11.3	11.13
12	N		1518	42581	1518	42581	100.0	3.6	3.56
13	N		5948	13571	3574	15946	60.1	26.3	22.41
14	N		2733	13571	2140	14164	78.3	15.8	15.11
15	N		1435	11897	1237	12095	86.2	10.4	10.23
16	N		1518	16506	1518	16506	100.0	9.2	9.20
17	Y	2	5948	10511	1934	14526	32.5	18.4	13.31
18	N		2733	7908	1275	9366	46.6	16.1	13.61
19	N		5948	7356	142	13162	2.4	1.9	1.08
20	N		2733	7356	308	9781	11.3	4.2	3.15
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 4.23				Mean FMS = 8.20			Daily FMS = 4.45

HYSPLIT +24h Forecast (5 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	Y	2	1041419	2210	2210	1041419	0.2	100.0	0.21
2	N		1041419	2126	2126	1041419	0.2	100.0	0.20
3	N		1435	1691	834	2292	58.1	49.3	36.37
4	N		1518	2745	1336	2927	88.0	48.7	45.65
5	N		1435	1184	467	2152	32.6	39.5	21.72
6	N		1518	3769	1366	3921	90.0	36.2	34.83
7	N		1435	1583	833	2185	58.1	52.6	38.13
8	N		1518	4325	1448	4394	95.4	33.5	32.95
9	N		1435	1951	871	2515	60.7	44.6	34.63
10	N		1518	4828	1503	4842	99.1	31.1	31.05
11	N		1435	2225	1024	2636	71.4	46.0	38.86
12	N		1518	5327	1518	5327	100.0	28.5	28.49
13	N		1435	2075	986	2524	68.7	47.5	39.05
14	N		1518	5511	1518	5511	100.0	27.5	27.54
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 0.49				Mean FMS = 29.26			Daily FMS = 0.85

HYSPLIT +24h Forecast (20 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		1041419	176	176	1041419	0.0	100.0	0.02
2	N		1041419	189	189	1041419	0.0	100.0	0.02
3	N		1435	242	242	1435	16.9	100.0	16.89
4	N		1518	329	277	1570	18.3	84.2	17.66
5	N		1518	1101	382	2237	25.2	34.7	17.08
6	N		1435	255	255	1435	17.8	100.0	17.80
7	N		1518	1085	317	2285	20.9	29.3	13.89
8	N		1435	329	328	1436	22.8	99.6	22.81
9	N		1518	1298	421	2394	27.8	32.5	17.60
10	N		1435	359	355	1438	24.8	99.0	24.70
11	N		1518	1518	566	2470	37.3	37.3	22.91
12	N		1435	263	263	1435	18.3	100.0	18.33
13	N		1518	1438	581	2374	38.3	40.4	24.48
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 0.17				Mean FMS = 16.48			Daily FMS = 0.21

HYSPLIT +24h Forecast (100 ug/m3 contour)
Shapefile Count	Merged (Y/N)?	Number of shapes merged	HMS Plume Area (km**2)	HYS Plume Area (km**2)	Area of Intersection (km**2)	Area of Union (km**2)	HMS Plume Overlap (%)	HYS Plume Overlap (%)	Figure of Merit in Space (%)
1	N		1518	284	21	1781	1.4	7.5	1.20
2	N		1518	314	29	1803	1.9	9.1	1.59
3	N		1518	308	31	1795	2.0	10.0	1.72
4	N		1518	145	9	1653	0.6	6.3	0.55
Area Weighted Mean FMS = 1.26				Mean FMS = 1.26			Daily FMS = 1.28