Smoke Forecasting Demo Project

HYSPLIT Smoke Verification for day: 09

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HYSPLIT Model Forecast


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Smoke forecasts are produced by NOAA using the HYSPLIT dispersion model. The dispersion model is preconfigured to run over the entire country once-a-day using the daily 0600 UTC NAM meteorological forecast. One-hour average output maps of primary PM2.5 air concentration between the ground and 5 km are produced using the actual fire locations from the previous day. The dispersion simulation consists of two parts: 1) a 24 h analysis simulation run for the previous day, and 2) a 48 h forecast simulation. The smoke particle positions at the end of each analysis period are used to intitialze the next day's analysis simulation.


Model Forecast Hour
Today's
HYSPLIT
24h Analysis
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Day-1
HYSPLIT
+24h Forecast
25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Day-2
HYSPLIT
+48h Forecast
49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60
61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72




24hr Analysis Measure of Effectiveness (MOE)


1 ug/m3

5 ug/m3

20 ug/m3

100 ug/m3

MOE, Warner et al., 2001
Hazard Mapping System Fire and Smoke Product

HMS Product

Click on the composite image above to enlarge. Fires are in red. Fire size has been increased so fires are visible in this view. Smoke, when detected by the analyst, is in gray. For more details, see the NOAA NESDIS HMS webpage.

NOAA NESDIS Text Narrative
This narrative, updated twice daily, indicates significant areas of smoke/dust visible on satellite imagery.
Early Discussion
Late Discussion
Alternate link: NESDIS Narrative.

Link to ARL FTP Directory


Figure of Merit in Space (FMS)

HYSPLIT 24h Analysis
ContourArea Weighted
Mean FMS
%
Daily
FMS
%
No. of
matched
shapes
1 ug/m312.468.0050
5 ug/m37.108.0738
20 ug/m34.614.7226
100 ug/m31.471.4716

Figure of Merit in Space (FMS) Histograms

1 ug/m3

5 ug/m3

20 ug/m3

100 ug/m3

HYSPLIT 24hr Forecast Valid Today
ContourArea Weighted
Mean FMS
%
Daily
FMS
%
No. of
matched
shapes
1 ug/m310.867.2954
5 ug/m37.718.2738
20 ug/m34.064.4924
100 ug/m30.280.2819

Figure of Merit in Space (FMS) Histograms

1 ug/m3

5 ug/m3

20 ug/m3

100 ug/m3

Click here for more details on todays shapefile comparisons
Area Weighted Mean FMS
Daily FMS
where, AHYS and AHMS are the HYSPLIT shape area and observed shape area, respectively and n is the number of shapes compared.




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